Fidelity 2026 Outlook: More Countries May Adopt Bitcoin as Reserve Asset, Four-Year Cycle Disappearance Still TBD

On January 3, Fidelity said in its *2026 Crypto Market Outlook* that investors eyeing the market for short-term gains should exercise caution—but it’s not too late for those with a long-term mindset. Fidelity Digital Assets Research VP Chris Kuiper noted: “Fidelity’s Digital Assets division thinks more countries could buy Bitcoin down the line, per game theory principles. If more nations add Bitcoin to their foreign exchange reserves, others may face pressure to follow suit amid competitive concerns. From basic supply and demand, extra Bitcoin demand could push prices higher—but the key is how much incremental demand there is, and whether other investors are selling or holding.” Corporate crypto purchases have lifted market demand and boosted asset prices. But investors should note the risks, Kuiper warned: “If these firms choose to sell (or are forced to) amid a bear market, that could definitely pressure Bitcoin or other digital asset prices lower.” Kuiper doesn’t think the four-year crypto cycle is gone entirely—fear and greed, the emotions driving these cycles, haven’t faded. The latest price drop could mark the start of a new bear market or just a bull market pullback. Whether cycle predictions hold will become clear later in 2026, at the earliest. While crypto still faces major uncertainties, one thing is increasingly clear: the market is entering a new paradigm, Kuiper said. “We’re seeing a whole new type and tier of investors join the space—and that trend will keep going in 2026. Traditional fund managers and investors have started buying Bitcoin and other digital assets, but the capital they could bring here is just getting started; we’re still scratching the surface.”