「On-Chain BTC Whale Short」 Increases Short Position, Total Position Exceeds $1.13 Billion

As of December 22, CME’s FedWatch data shows the probability the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its January meeting next year has fallen below 20% to 19.9%, while the chance of rates staying unchanged stands at 80.1%. Last week, that January rate-cut probability had risen to 31%. Looking ahead to March, the odds of the Fed keeping rates steady through that meeting are 44.7%, with a 46.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut and an 8.8% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point reduction. The Fed’s next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.

On December 22, data from DefiLlama shows that the 24-hour trading volume of major perpetual DEXs (Perp DEXs) has fallen below $4 billion, with weekend volumes showing slight weakness. Lighter leads the rankings, followed by Aster and EdgeX. Notably, while Hyperliquid’s 24-hour trading volume is only around $2.4 billion, its perpetual contract open interest continues to climb as existing capital adds leverage. Key metrics for top Perp DEXs are listed below: - **Lighter**: 24h volume ~$3.84B; TVL ~$1.41B; Open interest ~$1.65B - **Aster** (https://www.asterdex.com/en/referral/aboter): 24h volume ~$3.51B; TVL ~$1.3B; Open interest ~$2.42B - **EdgeX**: 24h volume ~$2.45B; TVL ~$370M; Open interest ~$761M - **Hyperliquid** (https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/NTOD): 24h volume ~$2.43B; TVL ~$4.15B; Open interest ~$7.08B - **ApeX**: 24h volume ~$1.61B; TVL ~$46.45M; Open interest ~$175M - **Backpack**: 24h volume ~$1.21B; TVL not disclosed; Open interest ~$2.32B - **Variationa

On December 22, U.S.-listed cryptocurrency-related stocks posted broad pre-market gains, with Ethereum Decentralized Treasury (DAT) leading the upward move. Notable performers included: - Circle (CRCL): +1.5% - MicroStrategy (MSTR): +1.93% - Coinbase (COIN): +1.97% - MARA Holdings (MARA): +1.57% - Riot Blockchain (RIOT): +1.93% - BitMine Immersion (BMNR): +4.2% - SharpLink Gaming (SBET): +2.04% This rewrite uses concise, American English financial jargon (e.g., "posted broad gains," "leading the upward move," "notable performers") and clear formatting typical of U.S. market briefs.

On December 22, Hyperliquid issued a clarification addressing a recent article that leveled unfounded accusations against the platform. The article alleged issues with Hyperliquid’s solvency, integrity, and transparency; the protocol responded to 10 specific claims as follows: 1. **$3.62B under-collateralization**: False. The article’s author overlooked HyperEVM USDC (parallel to the Arbitrum bridge). Current total USDC holdings: $43.51B. 2. **Transaction volume manipulation via TestnetSetYesterdayUserVlm**: False. This is a testnet-only feature and cannot be invoked on mainnet. 3. **Privileged users (fee waivers, airdrop manipulation)**: False. All fees, balances, and transactions are on-chain visible; no distortion mechanisms exist. 4. **CoreWriter “God Mode” (minting, fund transfers)**: False. This refers to how HyperEVM smart contracts send operations to HyperCore—no such privileged access exists. 5. **Governance freezing the chain (no undo)**: Misunderstanding. Freezing

On December 22, DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev announced the firm has completed its first physical gold transaction—a test trade involving a 25kg gold bar, which went smoothly. DWF Labs is scaling up operations and plans to facilitate future transactions for physical silver, platinum, and cotton. Its vision is to establish a significant presence in the real-world asset (RWA) market.

On December 22nd, data from Coinbob Popular Address Monitor shows the address linked to a former Hyperliquid employee (0x7ae) has been consistently selling HYPE spot tokens since this month. The address cut its HYPE holdings from $5.85 million to $2.48 million, a total reduction of over 70,000 tokens. It currently holds ~98,200 HYPE tokens. Amid HYPE’s price decline, the address has incurred a $1.43 million monthly loss, with ~$4.2 million remaining in its account. Additionally, it holds a small HYPE short position with an average entry price of $24.17—facing an unrealized loss of 43.5% and a position size of ~$25,800. The address first gained attention for shorting HYPE and its ties to the Hyperliquid team. In a recent post today, the Hyperliquid team stated the address belongs to a former employee dismissed in Q1 2024, who is now fully disassociated from Hyperliquid Labs. The team clarified the individual’s actions do not reflect the team’s standards or values.