On Polymarket, the probability of "Bank of Japan 25 Basis Point Rate Hike in December" is currently at 98%.

**December 17th** Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards—who leads a quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund—warned via Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s price could drop below $50,000 if the network fails to develop quantum computing resistance by 2028. Quantum computing’s potential threat to the crypto industry has long loomed as a critical inflection point: Advanced quantum machines could theoretically break encryption algorithms, exposing user private keys and leaving funds or sensitive data vulnerable to malicious actors. While the risk is widely viewed as distant, Edwards predicts it could materialize as early as 2028 without timely industry action—potentially hammering Bitcoin’s value.

December 17 — Retail trader sentiment toward cryptocurrencies has broadly turned bearish, per Cointelegraph. Santiment data shows this is historically a bullish contrarian signal: when retail investors anticipate further price declines, markets typically bounce back.

Bitget will list Infrared (IR) on its Innovation Zone on December 17. Deposits are now open, and trading will launch at 8:00 PM UTC+8 on that day.

On December 17th, Binance announced that users with Binance Alpha points of 225 or more can take part in the Infrared (IR) TGE event via the Alpha activity page. Joining this event requires 15 points.

On December 17, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said: "I believe we’re in the early stages of a supercycle in prediction markets, and as this space evolves, we’ll see continued growth in user adoption and trading volume—with annual contract trading potentially hitting tens of trillions."

On December 17, the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) noted that U.S. non-farm payrolls data points to a further weakening in the labor market, while more resilient consumer spending signals demand conditions remain fairly strong. Overall, this could prompt Federal Reserve policymakers—who held differing views at the central bank’s last meeting—to reassess their stances, raising the likelihood of a rate cut in 2026. That said, Goolsbee and Schmidt, the two key dissenters who pushed to keep rates unchanged at last week’s meeting, will lose their voting positions next year. They are likely to be replaced by Hammack and Logan, who may take a more hawkish stance. Convincing these incoming policymakers to shift their views and back more aggressive rate cuts will be a tough task. However, the cooling labor market will continue to erode their hawkish resolve, as the balanced mix of economic data has undermined the Fed’s rationale for keeping rates on hold. As a result, the probability of th