Bitunix Analyst: Non-Farm Payrolls Data Distortion Amplifies Policy Expectations, Crypto Market Focuses on "Direction Rather Than Numbers"

**December 16: U.S. November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Released Today** Markets broadly expect a modest 50,000 job gain, with the unemployment rate likely rising to 4.4%–4.5%—signaling a weak overall trend. - **FOREX.com**: Any reading below forecasts could push markets to price in earlier Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. - **MUFG**: If both employment and the unemployment rate worsen simultaneously, downward pressure on the U.S. dollar may persist through year-end. ### Key Note: Incomplete Data (Government Shutdown Impact) Both the NFP report and upcoming CPI are deemed **“incomplete data”** due to: - Missing October historical unemployment data - Uncollected CPI components - Forcibly adjusted November household survey weights - Authorities acknowledging high short-term data variance This erodes individual figure credibility—markets will focus more on *policy direction expectations* and *shifts in risk sentiment* than the exact job gain number. ### Crypto Market Dual Impact The weak NFP + data distortion creates two key effects for risk assets: 1. **Medium-term support**: Earlier rate-cut hopes boost liquidity optimism, benefiting BTC and similar assets. 2. **Short-term volatility**: Heightened uncertainty could spark sharp swings in interest rates, the dollar, and crypto markets—leaving leveraged funds vulnerable to liquidations. ### Bitunix Analyst Take During the “low-credibility macro data” phase, the core of market dynamics isn’t whether the NFP is good or bad—but whether it’s enough to shift the Fed’s policy narrative. Crypto markets should watch for liquidity-driven stop hunts and high volatility around the event, and monitor if funds use macro uncertainty to deleverage and reprice positions.