A certain trader is once again making a contrarian bet, bullish on a 25 basis point rate cut in January next year.

Dec 15 — Per monitoring from PolyBeats, the probability the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its January meeting stands at 78%, while the odds of a 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut are just 21%. Market consensus is clear: despite easing inflation, the Fed typically waits for economic stabilization before acting, making a major policy pivot unlikely early in the year. Yet trader thiswaysir is betting against the grain: he’s placed a contrarian $30k wager on a 25bp January rate cut, and even holds a "lottery position" of 100k units for a 50bp cut. This isn’t his first contrarian bet. In mid-November, when mainstream sentiment pegged an 80% chance the Fed would cut rates by 50bp (driven by recession fears and falling inflation), thiswaysir bought nearly $15k worth of contracts at an average price of 32 cents—correctly betting on the Fed’s 25bp December rate cut. The trade netted him roughly $25k in profit, marking his only historical transaction. If thiswaysir’s market read proves correct again, his initial $15k investment will compound to $150k by January.