「Fed's Megaphone」: Next year's rate cut will mainly rely on three paths, while Trump will continue to challenge the Fed's independence

**December 11: Powell’s Aggressive Rate-Cut Push—His Most Divisive Fed Tenure Move** In his *Wall Street Journal* “Fed Whisperer” column, Nick Timiraos reported that Jerome Powell pushed aggressively for a rate-cutting plan—one of the most divisive decisions of his nearly eight-year term at the Federal Reserve. The softening of that pro-rate-cut stance also sent a clear message to President Trump and future administrations: rate cuts aren’t as straightforward as they may seem. By 2026, three paths could enable rate cuts: 1. Wait for clear signs of cooling inflation (a process requiring at least some time). 2. Gather mounting evidence of a sharply deteriorating labor market—a scenario signaling economic weakness no president wants. 3. Overhaul the makeup of the Fed’s policy-setting committee (the group that meets in its boardroom). Investors are closely tracking this dynamic: the Trump administration’s recent challenges to Fed institutional norms have been likened to a velociraptor testing the fence in the first *Jurassic Park* to find weak spots in the power supply. “The moat looks impenetrable right now—but that doesn’t mean it always will,” one observer noted. *(Note: Added "Wall Street Journal" context for Timiraos, a known WSJ reporter, to align with U.S. media norms; simplified phrasing for brevity; used "enable rate cuts" instead of "ways to lower" for precision in financial language.)*