Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 Again This Year" Rises to 40%

**December 10: Li Huayi, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), said in a social media post that for long-term spot investments, a few hundred dollars in price difference doesn’t matter.** He noted Ethereum (ETH) is currently undervalued due to macro factors (expectations of interest rate cuts, pro-crypto policies) and industry trends: stablecoins are seeing long-term growth, and financial activity is shifting to blockchains. Additionally, ETH’s fundamentals have completely changed—these are also why he’s holding a heavy position in WLFI/USD1. Once fully positioned, Li will make no further short-term trades, leaving the rest up to time. He emphasized spot market volatility is already significant, so it’s advisable to steer clear of futures contracts: - Most people lack the necessary professional skills and mindset for futures trading. - It’s a nine-out-of-ten losing game that drains energy; that energy is better spent growing off-exchange business.

December 10th Crypto Fear & Greed Index Update Per alternative data, today’s cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index stands at 26—up from 22 yesterday. The market has shifted out of “extreme fear” and into the “fear” zone. Note: The index ranges from 0 to 100, weighted by six key metrics: Volatility (25%), Market Trading Volume (25%), Social Media Activity (15%), Market Surveys (15%), Bitcoin Dominance (10%), and Google Trends Analysis (10%).

On December 10, Angèle R.C. Sbai—Head of U.S. Fixed Income at RBC Global Asset Management (RBC GAM)—noted the Fed could deliver a rate cut at its upcoming meeting, but U.S. economic momentum suggests “no need for further cuts.” RBC GAM’s baseline call is a cut, but one with a hawkish tilt that may signal a subsequent pause in rate hikes. Sbai added: “In our view, inflation and labor market data should prompt the Fed to hold steady temporarily after multiple cuts and assess the economy early next year.” Market participants will closely watch FOMC dissenting voters—including those pushing for deeper cuts and those arguing the U.S. economy’s current conditions don’t justify a cut. From our perspective: Post this potential cut, we expect U.S. economic growth to accelerate in 2026, so additional cuts won’t be necessary. While political factors (like the Fed’s leadership transition in May) could lead to one cut, the economy itself won’t require more in the foreseeable future.

December 10: Delphi Labs COO Kevin Simback questioned the legitimacy of privacy chain project Octra’s public offering, which carries a $200 million valuation. He noted Octra completed a $4 million seed round over a year ago, with a valuation he estimated at no more than $40 million. Now, with valuation up over 5x, the project plans a TGE in months—but Simback claimed there’s “almost no real demand.” Octra co-founder Alex responded that he does not know Simback. He emphasized the low pre-seed valuation stemmed from the team only having a whitepaper and initial concept (a typical risk premium). Today, however, Octra has finished sandbox testing, has a complete mathematical document, open-source PoC, and launched a fully functional network stable for months—making the valuation increase reasonable. Earlier reports: Octra Labs (Octra’s parent team) will host a public token sale on Sonar, a platform launched by Jordan “Cobie” Fish, on December 18. Sonar was created by Echo, an ICO pla

As of December 10th, Coinglass data shows Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed positive for 8 straight days, currently standing at 0.0121%. BlockBeats Note: The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index tracks the gap between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase (a top U.S. exchange) and the global market average. It’s a key gauge for U.S. capital flows, institutional investment interest, and shifts in market sentiment. A positive reading means Coinbase’s Bitcoin price is above the global average—typically signaling strong U.S. buying pressure, active inflows from institutions or regulated funds, ample USD liquidity, and leaning optimistic market sentiment. A negative reading means Coinbase’s price is below the global average, often reflecting heavy U.S. selling pressure, reduced investor risk appetite, growing market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

On-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa) reports that Li Hua Yi, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), opened a $2,700 ETH position in the current market cycle—this position has since risen 22.2%. In a public Twitter post, Li noted the full position is now active, with 5 of the 6 mentioned tokens in an uptrend. ETH leads with a 22.2% gain, followed by BTC at 7.11%; the only token in a loss is ASTER (-19.78%). Position sizes were not disclosed, so unrealized profits cannot be calculated. Note that only ETH’s entry cost was confirmed; entry costs for other tokens are estimates based on Li’s tweet timestamp (November 23 at 2:30 PM) and are for reference only.