Data: U.S. Leading Economic Indicator Continues to Deteriorate, U.S. Economy Officially in Recession

On December 6, KobeissiLetter released data showing U.S. leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate. The ratio of leading to coincident economic indicators has dropped to 0.85 — the lowest level since 2008 — and has declined for four consecutive years. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking metrics including consumer expectations, manufacturing new orders, average weekly hours worked, and initial jobless claims, among others. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI), meanwhile, provides a real-time read on current economic conditions, such as nonfarm payroll employment. Historically, the U.S. economy has been in recession whenever this ratio has seen such a sharp decline.