JPMorgan: Despite Bitcoin's recent crash, it still maintains a $170,000 gold price anchor target

**December 5th** JPMorgan Chase maintains its "Bitcoin vs. Gold Volatility-Adjusted Model" despite Bitcoin’s recent steep plunge, projecting a theoretical price target of ~$170,000 for the crypto over the next 6–12 months. In a Wednesday report, the bank noted strategy remains a key driver for Bitcoin, with markets closely watching the firm’s Bitcoin holding value-to-enterprise value ratio (mNAV). Currently at ~1.13, a drop below 1.0 would signal a "forced selling" risk. The metric still sits above 1.0, providing reassurance—JPMorgan holds $1.4 billion in cash reserves to buffer against needing to sell Bitcoin. The January 15 MSCI index decision acts as an "asymmetric catalyst": - A rejection would mean most negative news is already priced into the sharp decline since October 10; - A positive outcome could trigger a sharp stock rebound. Bitcoin has tumbled from a record high above $120,000 to a low of ~$82,000 in recent weeks. JPMorgan cut its estimated Bitcoin production cost from $94,000 to $90,000, driven by the recent drop in hash rate and mining difficulty. Analysts warn a prolonged period below production cost could spark a "self-reinforcing cycle": marginal miners exit → difficulty falls → further production cost cuts (similar to 2018). The report adds deleveraging of perpetual contracts since October 10 has essentially ended.