Bitfinex Report: Market Approaching Local Bottom and Transitioning to Consolidation Phase

**Bitfinex Report (Dec 2): Bitcoin Rebound Aligns With Local Bottom Outlook** Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound last week, matching Bitfinex’s prior view that the market is timing-wise approaching a local bottom—though confirmation of a price floor is still pending. Still, extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and signs of seller exhaustion have laid groundwork for a stabilization phase. **On-chain metrics back this call:** - The adjusted spent output profit ratio (ASOPR) fell below 1 for only the third time since early 2024, mirroring realized profit dynamics at 2024’s August and 2025’s April cyclical lows. - Entity-adjusted realized losses surged to $4.034 billion daily, topping prior major lows for this metric. This level typically signals capitulation is near completion, not the start of a deeper downturn. **Derivatives data shows orderly leverage unwind:** - BTC futures total open interest (OI) dropped to $59.17 billion—well off its $94.12 billion peak. - With OI shrinking and spot prices rising, this signals a short squeeze, not a new wave of speculative risk-taking. This reinforces the view that the market is shifting to a more stable consolidation phase with less fragility, potentially setting the stage for a sustainable recovery bottom in Q4.