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Bitunix Analyst: US Employment Stagnation Departs from Strong GDP, Market Pricing Enters Rift Zone with BTC Approaching Short Squeeze Price

2025.11.24 13:28:29

On November 24th, the "peculiar divergence" of the U.S. economy pushed market sentiment into a new range of uncertainties. While GDP remained strong, corporate hiring hit a multi-year low. The AI-driven investment boom has boosted productivity but failed to drive job expansion, putting the Federal Reserve in a rare policy dilemma between rate cuts and a stalemate. Meanwhile, after Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, the situation in the Middle East heated up again, and geopolitical risks caused short-term disturbances in safe-haven demand. At the macro level, the divergence between weak employment and strong output has led the Federal Reserve to remain highly cautious about the pace of rate cuts. Officials emphasized in the latest minutes that the policy stance would not be adjusted at present without clearer signals of inflation cooling or labor market deterioration. This environment has prompted the market to reprice liquidity expectations, and volatility may rise again. In the crypto market, BTC is maintaining a bullish recovery within the 4H structure. The price is approaching the previous 90,000–91,000 USD pressure range, while the key structural support lies between 86,000 and 84,000 USD. The liquidation heatmap shows a dense long-end liquidation zone around 88,500–89,000 USD. If this level is broken, it will point to a larger leverage stacking area between 90,800 and 91,500 USD. Conversely, if resistance is encountered and the price falls back, the dense liquidation and order book zone between 85,000 and 84,000 USD will be the initial liquidity attraction target. Bitunix analysts suggest that the current phase is a period of structural recovery progress. It is advisable to pay attention to three key levels: the supply zone near 90,000 USD, the short-term structural support around 86,000 USD, and the price gap area at 84,000 USD. The market is entering a critical pivot zone of massive liquidation clustering, and the subsequent direction will be determined by the attraction of liquidity and macro uncertainty.
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As oil prices top $100, the BRICS Summit has centered on Iran, yet divisions among its members have deepened.

The BRICS Leaders' Summit was held in New Delhi, India. As the ongoing conflict involving Iran continues to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, and international oil prices have topped $100, Iran emerged as one of the core topics at this year's summit. Member states including China, Russia and India have direct communication channels with Iran, a diplomatic advantage the U.S. currently lacks. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called on member states ahead of the summit to establish alternative financial instruments to reduce reliance on the Western-led financial system, and criticized the U.S.-dominated global order. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, advocated for advancing the establishment of a BRICS platform more independent from Western rules, with a focus on strengthening cooperation in payments, investment, technology and infrastructure. However, it will not be easy for BRICS to position itself as a mediator in the Middle East crisis. Iran is on opposing sides of a conflict with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), another BRICS member, which has previously suspended trade and financial exchanges with Iran; India, meanwhile, must balance its relations with the U.S., Gulf states, Russia and Iran. Divergences among member states previously led to the foreign ministers' meeting failing to issue a joint statement. What the market is currently more focused on is whether BRICS can reach a minimal consensus on energy security, cross-border payments and the Middle East situation. With ongoing disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, whether the summit can ultimately deliver a unified stance will also serve as an important window for observing global energy and geopolitical trends.

23 minutes ago

Viewpoint: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are fundamentally unnecessary, and the overall economy is stable.

Liz Miller, founder and president of U.S. wealth management firm Summit Place Financial Advisors, said that while markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week, further policy tightening is "fundamentally unnecessary" given the overall economic stability. Miller noted, "I think most investors believe the Fed will raise rates next week, and I also think that’s highly probable. But it’s fundamentally unnecessary. I’d be interested to hear the discussions at the policy meeting, as some Fed officials firmly believe action is needed before overall inflation picks up to push it back to the 2% target. However, if we take a patient view of other parts of the economy, they are actually performing quite stably. I’m not sure a broad rate hike is truly necessary. We can continue to monitor whether rising oil prices will spill over and watch core inflation gradually fall."

23 minutes ago

ZachXBT: Revolut Suspected of Leaking Data of Some High-Net-Worth Users Due to Trusting a Forged Government Request

On his personal channel, blockchain investigator ZachXBT stated that fintech firm Revolut allegedly failed to detect a forged government agency request, leading to the leakage of some users’ personal identifiable information (PII). According to his disclosure, Revolut received a customer information retrieval request that appeared to come from a legitimate government agency, sent via the agency’s official email domain. Since the email had valid domain authentication details, Revolut deemed the request authentic and responded. The potentially involved data includes users’ names, dates of birth, occupations, addresses, emails, phone numbers, as well as copies of passports or driver’s licenses, identity verification selfies, account statements, IBANs, withdrawal records, and full transaction histories—including Bitcoin transactions. In its notification to users, Revolut said no biometric facial telemetry data was leaked. ZachXBT noted that the incident’s scale may be limited, but it appears to target primarily high-net-worth users. Multiple Revolut users received alerts about the security incident yesterday. Revolut officials have previously reminded users to verify suspicious communications via in-app customer service and avoid providing personal or financial information.

23 minutes ago

US August inflation approaches the threshold for interest rate hikes; China International Capital Corporation (CICC) says it may resume interest rate hikes in September.

US August inflation data heats up again. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) research report shows that US August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, both indicators accelerated compared to the previous period; core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations. CICC believes that August inflation has reached the threshold for the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes, and expects the Fed may raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 policy meeting, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%. In terms of structure, rising energy prices and resilient service prices remain key drivers of inflation, while some AI-related price pressures have also begun to emerge. CICC forecasts that the Fed may lower its unemployment rate forecast, raise its inflation forecast, and lift its 2027 and 2028 interest rate paths at this meeting, signaling a more hawkish policy stance. CICC also warns that a bigger risk is the Fed may raise rates further this year or next, meaning the market’s current pricing for a rate-cut cycle still has room for readjustment.

23 minutes ago

WSJ: U.S. stocks rebound as market prices in Fed rate hike expectations, 10-year U.S. Treasury yield nears 5%.

After US August CPI data came in slightly above expectations, markets largely confirmed the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates next week — a development that instead sparked a Friday rebound in US stocks. Investors view the clear rate hike path as helping reduce policy uncertainty and avoiding more aggressive rate hike expectations down the line. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% on Friday, the Dow Jones gained around 1%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1%, though all three major indexes ended the week lower overall. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.974%, near the 5% threshold, a notable jump from 4.783% a week earlier. Markets now expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting. RBC Capital Markets has even shifted its forecast for rate cuts this year to three rate hikes, noting that high interest rates could further weigh on corporate earnings and stock valuations. The energy market also remained under pressure: Brent crude closed at $104.61 per barrel on Friday, up more than 8% for the week. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia’s shutdown of east-west oil pipelines have all amplified supply concerns. While market sentiment improved somewhat on Friday, the simultaneous presence of high oil prices and elevated interest rates means US stocks could remain highly volatile going forward. Wall Street’s core question has now shifted from “whether the Fed will raise rates” to “how long high interest rates will persist, and whether they can curb inflation without harming the economy and corporate earnings.”

23 minutes ago

Astra's failure cause identified: outdated Skill is the bottleneck, OpenAI to roll out another reset after completing fixes.

Beating AI Express: OpenAI has fixed a series of quality issues following the launch of Astra. The most notable problem stemmed from legacy Skills: some Skills written for previous models were triggering incorrectly on Astra, even preventing the model from auditing its own work. Another issue related to context management experiments, which caused Astra to terminate responses early or revert to replying to earlier messages. OpenAI has shut down these experiments, affecting an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 users. The team also decommissioned a batch of misconfigured inference engines that degraded model quality. Post-fixes, Astra is expected to be more stable in following the latest instructions and performing self-checks. OpenAI also announced an additional user reset.

23 minutes ago

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