Bitunix Analyst: Non-Farm Payrolls Data Shows Mixed Signals as Interest Rate Path Hits Another Standstill, Leading to Bitcoin Decline Followed by Consolidation

November 21st. The U.S. Department of Labor disclosed the September nonfarm payroll data, indicating an addition of 119,000 jobs, which significantly exceeded the market's expectation of 52,000 jobs. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.4%, reaching a four-year high. This delayed employment report, which was released after the government shutdown, has become the final key data prior to the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. The data itself is lagging and presents contradictions, further intensifying policy divergences and making it difficult for the market to determine a clear interest rate path. The latest federal funds futures show that the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to less than 40%, reflecting a rapid decline in market expectations for easing. On a macro level, the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data should have been considered hawkish. However, the substantial increase in the unemployment rate clearly indicates a weak internal structure in the labor market, sending a "fractured" signal and causing policymakers to have more significant differences when interpreting economic strength/weakness. The lagging nature of this data also makes it more challenging for the market to confirm the true economic momentum, leading to a renewed flight to safety in a high-interest-rate environment. This uncertainty is rapidly being reflected in risk assets. In the crypto market, BTC was strongly suppressed by the $93,000 resistance level and was further dragged down by the cooling rate expectations, with prices briefly dropping to around $85,000. Structurally, if it is unable to hold above $86,800, it may further test $80,200. A Bitunix analyst stated: In the absence of clear interest rate and employment signals, the market is prone to amplified volatility, and short-term sentiment-driven technical structure trading is favored. It is recommended to focus on three key points: 1) Whether subsequent revisions to labor market data will reverse the market's assessment of economic weakness; 2) Whether the internal divisions within the Fed regarding rate cuts will continue to widen; 3) Whether BTC's structure can hold the low point and whether it can retest the upper boundary of the range with the replenishment of liquidity. These factors will drive the price rhythm and risk preference direction in the coming week.