Wintermute: The macro backdrop remains positive, but BTC needs to regain momentum for the market to have a broad-based recovery.

November 18th. Wintermute issued a report indicating that in the past week, the market mainly digested the significant adjustment in the expectations of a December rate cut. The rate cut probability plummeted from 70% to 42% within a week. During this period, the vacuum of macro data amplified the volatility. Powell's ambiguous stance on a December rate cut forced the market to reevaluate the divergences among FOMC members, revealing that a consensus on a rate cut has not yet formed. Risk assets weakened accordingly, and the cryptocurrency market, as a sentiment barometer, was hit the hardest. In terms of cross-asset performance, digital assets continued to lag behind. This weakness is not a new phenomenon. Since early summer, cryptocurrencies have consistently underperformed the stock market, partly due to their negative deviation relative to the stock market. What is unusual is that in this round of decline, BTC and ETH actually underperformed the overall altcoin market. This can be attributed to the fact that altcoins have been in a downtrend for a while; privacy coins, fee switch coins, and other niche segments have still shown some resilience. Part of the pressure comes from whale position adjustments. Although there is a seasonal pattern of selling from the fourth quarter to January of the following year, it has been significantly front-loaded this year. Many traders expect the four-year cycle theory to indicate that next year will enter a dull period. This consensus has become a self-fulfilling prophecy: early risk-off behavior has intensified the volatility. It should be noted that this round of selling pressure is not supported by deteriorating fundamentals but is purely a macro-driven adjustment led by the United States. Currently, the macro background remains positive, with ongoing global easing, the imminent conclusion of U.S. quantitative tightening, an active fiscal stimulus channel, and the potential for Q1 liquidity improvement. The key signal missing from the market is the stabilization of the flagship asset. Unless BTC returns to the upper range of volatility, it will be difficult to expand market breadth, and the narrative logic will remain transient. The current macro environment does not exhibit enduring bear market characteristics. With policy and rate expectations becoming the main catalysts, once the flagship asset regains momentum, the market will have a broad-based recovery foundation.