Analysis: The conclusion of the government shutdown did not eliminate uncertainty, as the US Debt Volatility Index surged to a one-month high.

November 13th: The price of U.S. Treasury bonds remained relatively steady. However, the volatility index suggests that there may be significant fluctuations in the next few days following the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remains strong, reporting 4.08% on Thursday. Nevertheless, according to swap data linked to the policy meeting date, there is a divergence in the market's expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Meanwhile, after recently touching a four-year low, the ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, has surged to its highest level in a month. This indicates that the upcoming release of a large amount of economic data by the government may prompt market actions. Investors in this $30 trillion market have been eagerly awaiting the resumption of government economic reports in order to gain insights into where the Fed will set interest rates at its final meeting of the year. Michiel Tukker, the senior European rates strategist at Rabobank, stated that since the market is not yet fully certain about the Fed's next moves, any new inflation and employment data could lead to movements in the front-end curve. (FX168)