Reuters Poll: Fed Seen Cutting Rates Twice More This Year, 2026 Rate Path Highly Uncertain

On October 21st, a Reuters survey of economists conducted from October 15th to 21st indicated that the Federal Reserve is projected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the coming week and in December. Nonetheless, there remains a notable disparity of viewpoints among economists regarding the interest rate level by the end of next year. A month prior, economists had anticipated only one rate cut this year. But this new forecast follows a recent transformation in expectations among Fed policymakers towards more rate cuts. Among 117 economists, with the exception of two, all predict that the Fed will again cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29th, reducing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Two economists anticipate a 25 basis point cut in October and a 50 basis point cut in December. The proportion of economists expecting another rate cut in December has decreased to 71%. Financial market traders are more certain, as interest rate futures contracts have fully factored in two additional rate cuts this year.