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Bitunix Analyst: Market Volatility Before Powell's Speech, BTC Focuses on 111K and 114K

7 hours ago

October 15: On the eve of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" speech, the global market witnessed a rare turmoil. Risk assets and safe-haven assets surged simultaneously, and the intense volatility in the cryptocurrency market rapidly escalated panic. The liquidation map indicates that BTC has formed a dense liquidation zone within the range of $114K to $111K, suggesting an imbalance in the market liquidity structure. It is necessary to observe the direction of fund reallocation after the liquidation. On a macro level, Powell's speech will serve as a watershed in this round of risk-off sentiment. The futures market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and December with probabilities of 97% and 89% respectively, indicating that investors have almost fully bet on the continuation of loose monetary policy. If Powell sends a hawkish signal, it may trigger a new round of risk asset sell-offs; conversely, if the tone is more dovish, the market may quickly adjust its expectations, and funds will flow back to tech stocks and the crypto market. Bitunix Analyst View: The market is currently in a "signal vacuum period," and policy tone will drive the repricing of risk appetite. From a structural perspective, the liquidity vacuum caused by leveraged liquidation may be laying the groundwork for a subsequent rebound. The real key does not lie in the strength of Powell's words but in how the market will reinterpret the Fed's strategic intent of "tolerating short-term volatility to maintain long-term confidence." The short-term oscillation pattern of BTC is clear. It is recommended to continue monitoring the liquidity areas at $114K and $111K, strictly control leverage and risk exposure, and be prepared for potential volatility on the eve of the policy.
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