Serenity: Projects that prices of upstream materials for AI optical interconnects will continue to rise.
Serenity issued a statement noting that a new research report from Nomura Securities points out that as AI infrastructure construction continues to heat up, the upstream photon materials supply chain is facing dual pressures of surging demand and tightening supply. AXTI and IQE are among the main beneficiaries of the indium phosphide (InP) industrial chain. In terms of pricing, the price of 2-inch InP substrates is expected to rise by 42% to 76%, while 3-inch InP substrates will increase by approximately 78%; the price of 2-inch EML epitaxial wafers is projected to rise by 50% to 75%, and the price of 3-inch CW epitaxial wafers will also jump by more than 40%. The report argues that the ongoing expansion of AI data centers by hyperscale cloud service providers is pushing the entire optical communication industry chain into a stage of tight supply and demand, with bottleneck signs emerging across all links from material prices and end-market demand to supply capacity. Serenity stated that as AI optical interconnect demand continues to release over the next few years, upstream photon material prices will keep rising, similar to the price hike cycle SanDisk experienced before. Whether this judgment will hold true as AI demand curves climb further in the next two years remains to be verified by the market.
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BNY Mellon: Urgency for further Federal Reserve tightening has diminished.
Jeff, Senior Macro Strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, pointed out that weak U.S. labor data and improved inflation metrics have reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement further monetary tightening. However, this does not resolve lingering questions about whether the growth slowdown is within a controllable range or whether policy expectations have been overly adjusted. He remarked, “The global narrative is growing less unified.” In the U.S., the key question is whether the Federal Reserve can maintain patience without inflation risks reemerging; in Europe, meanwhile, the focus of discussions has shifted from urgent inflation management to issues including economic growth, fiscal credibility, and defense financing.
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Recently, only two whales on Hyperliquid have completed position building for MU, with the average entry price for long positions standing at $1,019.
According to Hyperinsight’s monitoring, following the U.S. stock market’s closure for Independence Day last Friday, U.S. stock trading volumes slowed sharply over the weekend, with MU’s 24-hour volume reaching just $99 million. Only one whale built and held a MU (Micron Technology) position on Hyperliquid over the weekend. This whale’s address (0x93c) was created three days ago and currently only engages in long MU trades on Hyperliquid. Approximately three hours ago, the address opened another long position of 1,319.5 MU with 7x leverage, worth roughly $1.33 million, at an average entry price of $1,002 and a liquidation price of $904. Separately, only one whale also opened a MU position during last Friday’s market closure and has held it since. This whale currently holds a long position valued at approximately $8.31 million, with an average entry price of $1,036, and is currently in a slight unrealized loss.
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JPMorgan Chase maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tencent, with a target price of HK$690.
JPMorgan said in a report that uncertainties surrounding Tencent’s WeChat AI Agent include whether it can fully integrate into the WeChat platform, the extent of its transaction permissions, and whether Tencent can build a supply system accessible to AI Agents without relying on existing e-commerce platforms to open inventory. With Tencent launching the beta test for WeChat AI Agent in June, the bank has significantly boosted its confidence in the agent’s value creation framework. The Agent service is now sufficiently visible, enabling a clear distinction between its existing components and areas still under development. This has shifted WeChat AI Agent from an AI initiative with no clear timeline to a phased rollout project with observable milestones. The bank believes the initial impact of WeChat AI Agent’s launch on Tencent’s stock price will likely stem from a reduction in risk premium and higher valuation multiples, rather than short-term earnings per share growth. It assigned Tencent an "Overweight" rating, with a target price of HK$690.
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South Korea is pushing forward civil enforcement rules for virtual assets, with plans to allow courts to seize and liquidate crypto assets.
South Korea’s Supreme Court has issued a legislative notice for the Partial Amendment to the Civil Execution Rules, which will for the first time bring virtual assets under the scope of civil compulsory enforcement. Following a public comment period, the amended rules are set to take effect on October 1, 2026. Key provisions include: Compulsory enforcement of claims for digital asset transfers (courts may launch enforcement via seizure orders, barring third-party debtors like trading platforms from transferring assets to the debtor, while restricting the debtor from disposing of such claims); Compulsory enforcement of digital assets themselves (courts may seize virtual assets held by the debtor, which will be taken over by enforcement officers, with the debtor prohibited from disposal); Liquidation methods: Seized digital assets can be monetized via transfer orders or auction orders. For assets with low liquidity, conversion into other digital assets prior to auction is allowed.
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