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Federal Reserve's Harker: May Temporarily Hold Rates Steady

2025.02.08 00:32:20

February 8th: On this day, the US January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls reached 143,000. This figure is significantly lower than the market's expected level of 170,000 and hits a new low since October of last year. Federal Reserve's Gullsby provided comments on the macro data, stating, "This is a rather robust non-farm payroll report. It appears that we are on the verge of achieving full employment. Based on recent observations, I am optimistic that tariffs will not ultimately pose a significant obstacle to trade. I am satisfied with the current economic development path. Tariffs may act as a 'wrench' in the supply chain. Wage growth is roughly in line with the 2% inflation level. Long-term market-oriented inflation expectations suggest that the market believes the Fed will be able to keep inflation under control at 2%." "Currently, the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates unchanged. However, in the next 12 to 18 months, interest rates will be slightly lower than the current level. Under greater uncertainty, the pace of interest rate cuts will slow down. In the process of achieving the 2% inflation target, we may temporarily maintain interest rates unchanged. The neutral balance point for interest rates has decreased. Stable interest rates need to be achieved on a 'cautious' timetable. I do not think the Federal Reserve will be involved in any sovereign wealth fund." (Jin Shi)
Relevant content

Summary of Walsh's Press Conference: The decision to hold off on interest rate hikes was not politically influenced, and schedule reforms will be implemented next autumn.

Fed Governor Waller has concluded the press conference following the October FOMC meeting. BlockBeats summarizes the key takeaways as follows: Waller first affirmed the U.S. economy, stating that U.S. economic activity is expanding strongly, domestic consumption has remained resilient, productivity is robust, and capital investment is strong. However, he warned that inflation remains elevated. The Federal Reserve believes additional information will help the FOMC assess its policy stance, and the committee will achieve price stability. Economic growth is robust. Waller also added that credit conditions have tightened somewhat since the Fed’s last rate hike, but immediately clarified: “I neither want to nor can describe it as ‘tightening.’” When asked whether midterm elections would influence interest rate decisions, Waller said “politics has played no role at all.” On issues including AI and oil prices, Waller pointed out that interest rates have fallen amid rising oil prices, expressed skepticism about the view that “rate hikes will not impact AI,” and noted that interest rates have affected the tech sector. Waller also announced adjustments to the FOMC meeting schedule starting next fall: the committee will hold 8 meetings annually. In 2027, the Fed will still hold 8 meetings as scheduled, but one will not vote on monetary policy interest rates, focusing solely on policy strategy. In 2028, two of the 8 meetings will be dedicated to policy strategy, with no votes on policy interest rates, and these will not be formal policy decision-making sessions.

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Walsh: Politics played no role in interest rate decisions.

When asked whether the midterm elections would affect interest rate decisions, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh said politics played no part in the decision-making.

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Wash: We are keeping a close eye on South Korea's economy, and the level of attention we are paying may surprise you.

Federal Reserve Governor Warsh told reporters at a press conference, "I am closely monitoring the South Korean economy, and my level of attention to South Korea may exceed what you might imagine."

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PRIORS and AI have been added to Robinhood’s asset display page.

According to relevant page information, PRIORS and AI tokens have been added to Robinhood's asset display page. Possibly driven by this news, the related tokens rallied nearly 10% in a short period.

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Wash voiced skepticism about the claim that interest rate hikes will not impact AI, and has observed that interest rates are affecting the tech sector.

Fed Chair Walsh: As oil prices continue to climb, interest rates have retreated. He expressed skepticism toward the view that interest rate hikes will not impact AI, noting that whether you interpret it as AI or SI is up to you, and added that he has observed interest rates affecting the tech sector.

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Waller: Decided to adjust his schedule next autumn, and will not hold interest rate votes at two meetings starting in 2028.

Federal Reserve Chair Waller said he has decided to adjust the FOMC schedule next fall: one meeting will not hold a policy rate vote, while another will focus on strategy. He projected six policy-setting meetings in 2028, adding that eight annual meetings are the appropriate number.

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