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Federal Reserve's Harker: May Temporarily Hold Rates Steady

2025.02.08 00:32:20

February 8th: On this day, the US January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls reached 143,000. This figure is significantly lower than the market's expected level of 170,000 and hits a new low since October of last year. Federal Reserve's Gullsby provided comments on the macro data, stating, "This is a rather robust non-farm payroll report. It appears that we are on the verge of achieving full employment. Based on recent observations, I am optimistic that tariffs will not ultimately pose a significant obstacle to trade. I am satisfied with the current economic development path. Tariffs may act as a 'wrench' in the supply chain. Wage growth is roughly in line with the 2% inflation level. Long-term market-oriented inflation expectations suggest that the market believes the Fed will be able to keep inflation under control at 2%." "Currently, the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates unchanged. However, in the next 12 to 18 months, interest rates will be slightly lower than the current level. Under greater uncertainty, the pace of interest rate cuts will slow down. In the process of achieving the 2% inflation target, we may temporarily maintain interest rates unchanged. The neutral balance point for interest rates has decreased. Stable interest rates need to be achieved on a 'cautious' timetable. I do not think the Federal Reserve will be involved in any sovereign wealth fund." (Jin Shi)
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Abraxas Capital Secures Top Two in Brent Crude Position, Increases Short Position to $50 Million in Bet on “Oil Price Drop”

Per HyperInsight monitoring as of March 26th, Abraxas Capital’s two key addresses (0x5b5, 0xb83) have recently ramped up their Brent Crude Oil short positions. The pair now hold the top two spots for BRENTOIL (Brent Crude Oil) positions on the Hyperliquid platform. Each address has a short position of over $20 million, totaling $50 million in size. Both positions use 10x leverage, with a weighted average entry price of ~$104.7 and an average liquidation price of ~$142.6. As Brent Crude prices continue to fall, the two positions have racked up approximately $3 million in unrealized profits, delivering an overall ROI of ~12%. (Source: HyperInsight monitoring)

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A certain whale opened a $30 million intraday long position on the "S&P 500" and held another $10 million short position on crude oil to bet on the "Oil Price Decline."

March 26 — Per HyperInsight monitoring (via https://t.me/HyperInsight), amid shifting expectations around U.S.-Iran talks, the “Largest S&P 500 Bull” (address 0xebe) closed out a 15x-leveraged long position on the S&P 500 this morning. The position was sized at $29.9 million, with an average entry price of $6,597, a minor unrealized loss of $110,000 (-6%), and a liquidation price of $6,220. The address now holds the largest S&P 500 bull position on Hyperliquid. Additionally, the same address holds a $10 million short position split between WTI Oil and Brent Oil (U.S. and U.K. crude), with average entry prices of $91 and $99, respectively, and liquidation prices of $107 and $119, respectively. The move appears to be a bet on significant progress in U.S.-Iran talks, as a pullback in oil prices could drive a market rebound.

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Bernard Seeks to Reform Oversight of the Fed, Looking to Bank of England as a Model

On March 26, the Financial Times reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has discussed strengthening the Treasury’s oversight of the Federal Reserve by drawing on elements of the Bank of England’s model—a move that would reshape the relationship between the Fed and the U.S. government. According to senior financial industry executives with knowledge of the matter, Yellen has told market participants she admires the 1997 reforms the UK government implemented, when the Bank of England was granted operational independence to set monetary policy. While both central banks formally maintain independence from their respective governments, the Fed has greater autonomy in how it pursues Congress’s mandates of price stability and full employment, as well as how it responds to financial instability. Yellen has publicly stated the Fed should undergo reform while preserving the independence of its monetary policy. Last year, she published a 6,000-word article in *The International

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Multiple Institutions Raise US Economic Recession Probability

March 26 (CCTV News) — Delayed U.S.-Iran tensions have introduced fresh downside risks to the U.S. economy, prompting several institutions to raise their recession probability forecasts for the country, per recent reports. U.S. sources on March 25 highlighted the following: - Moody’s Analytics’ model now pegs the 12-month recession odds at 48.6% (up from a typical ~20%); - Goldman Sachs has lifted its forecast to 30%; - Wilmington Trust predicts a 45% chance; - EY-Parthenon forecasts 40%. Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi noted the recession risk is “uncomfortably high and still rising,” framing an economic downturn as a real threat. He added: “The U.S. economy will tip into recession if current high oil prices persist through late May to the end of Q2.”

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Morgan Stanley: Liquidity Stress, U.S. Treasury Market Margin Call Underway

March 26 – Morgan Stanley interest rate strategists say this month’s sell-off in U.S. Treasuries has the hallmarks of a forced unwinding of positions in two-year notes, as traders ditch bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and start pricing in hikes—pushing the two-year yield sharply higher. Led by Eli Carter, the strategists noted in a Wednesday report that since the U.S. struck Iran on Feb. 28, trading data from CME Group-owned BrokerTec Inc. shows “U.S. Treasury market liquidity has fallen sharply, especially at the front end.” Longer-dated bonds, like the 10-year note, have stayed relatively stable, they added. “Wider bid-ask spreads typically crimp trading, so the fact volumes are still recovering reflects many trades are driven by necessity, not choice,” the strategists said. Since the conflict began, the two-year Treasury yield has climbed ~50 basis points to 3.87%, but Morgan Stanley’s analysis shows the sell-off has been “exacerbated by position unwinding and worsening liqu

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Fed Advisor: Powell May Need Five Years to Trim Fed's Balance Sheet

March 26 — Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh aims to significantly shrink the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet, but a top financial economist says the task may take more than one term to complete. Stanford Graduate School of Business professor Darrell Duffie, a longstanding Fed advisor, notes in a new paper that substantial cuts to the Fed’s financial market footprint without undue stress will require reforms—including an overhaul of bank liquidity requirements and a redesign of the payment system. Once confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Warsh could implement some reforms immediately if he has support from his Fed colleagues. Duffie adds other reforms may take up to five years, meaning the work would extend beyond Warsh’s four-year term as chair. (FXStreet)

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