Federal Reserve's Harker: May Temporarily Hold Rates Steady

July 27–Aug 2, 2026 #LookonchainWeeklyReport ?? Overview Despite a $2.55B stablecoin outflow, DEX trading rebounded strongly, while public companies reduced their $BTC holdings by 319 $BTC, including Strategy's sale of 1,638 $BTC. ?? Stablecoin Market The total stablecoin market cap decreased by $2.55B. ?? Spot & Perps Trading Volume on DEXs DEX trading rebounded strongly last week, with spot volume up 12.77% and perp volume surging 20.15% WoW. ?? Protocol Revenue Top protocol revenue remaine...

Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that the U.S. July Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, hitting its highest level since May 2022 and marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion. The data further indicates that the U.S. July Manufacturing Production Index climbed to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, with new orders remaining robust and manufacturing employment rising for the first time since last September, signaling growing business confidence in the economic outlook. However, beneath the manufacturing recovery, inflationary pressures and bond market risks are still building. Recurring tensions in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, putting strain on supply chains and raw material costs. While the July Manufacturing Price Index fell to 71.1, a five-month low, it remains at an elevated level. Strong economic data paired with inflation concerns have triggered sharp recent volatility in the U.S. bond market. Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, described the current bond market swings as a "textbook inflation credibility shock," noting that the market is worried about insufficient communication from the Federal Reserve. Cabana pointed out that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has failed to clarify the specific path to achieving the 2% inflation target, and the end of the long-used "forward guidance" strategy has also left the market in uncertainty. Data shows that the 30-year U.S. Treasury term premium has risen to 1.51%, the highest level since 2013, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5.28% at one point last Friday. Bank of America believes the Fed needs to rebuild market confidence through its September rate decision, otherwise pressure on the U.S. bond market could intensify further.

According to a report from The Information, five people familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration invited employees from multiple tech firms including OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic to the White House on Tuesday to review the finalized AI regulatory framework. The framework will establish a voluntary process for AI labs, requiring them to submit their models to the government for review before releasing them to partners and the public. The scheduled meeting takes place several days after the August 1 deadline set by an executive order in early June for the framework’s completion. One source said the meeting will be hosted by the Office of the National Cyber Director, an executive branch agency, adding that the invitation explicitly notes the session will discuss next steps for the framework and an unspecified related activity. Two sources added that the meeting is expected to feature staff-level representatives from each company, not executives, as the gathering is not intended to be a public launch of the new framework.

After South Korea raised margin requirements for single-stock leveraged ETF investors, trading activity in related products has dropped significantly, with transaction volumes falling to roughly one-tenth of their previous peak levels. Data from the Korea Exchange shows that the combined transaction volume of 16 single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix on South Korea’s KOSPI market reached 1.2388 trillion won in the two trading days following the new measure’s implementation, a 58.6% decrease from the 2.9907 trillion won recorded on July 31, the day the rule took effect. Earlier, South Korean regulators lifted the minimum cash margin requirement for single-stock leveraged ETF investors from 10 million won to 30 million won. Compared with the 12.4485 trillion won in transaction volume on the last trading day before the rule’s implementation (July 30), the current trading size of these products has fallen to roughly one-tenth. The cooling of retail investor enthusiasm is particularly evident. Data indicates that retail investors’ transaction volume in single-stock leveraged and inverse products dropped to 250.7 billion won, less than a quarter of the 929.9 billion won on July 31. Analysts noted that the raised margin thresholds have initially curbed speculative capital inflows, and the trading pattern where retail investors continuously bought leveraged products during declines in underlying stocks is shifting.

According to Bit.com market data, the S&P 500’s gain has widened to 1%, hitting its highest level since July 16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.3%, while the Nasdaq is up 1.38%. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.2%, notching an intraday record high since July 6.

Aug 3 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -3,321 $BTC(-$210.32M)?? 7D NetFlow: -297 $BTC(-$18.8M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -3,515 $ETH(-$6.52M)?? 7D NetFlow: +1,573 $ETH(+$2.92M)??