Federal Reserve's Harker: May Temporarily Hold Rates Steady

This week, U.S. stocks face a dual test of interest rate decisions and tech earnings reports. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00 ET on July 29 and hold a press conference at 14:30 ET, corresponding to 2:00 and 2:30 Beijing Time on July 30. The current federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50%-3.75%. Markets are largely betting on the Fed to hold rates steady, but the risk of an unexpected rate hike is priced in at roughly one-third. Goldman Sachs’ David Mericle team calls this week’s Fed decision “unusually uncertain.” It argues that cooling June inflation data has weakened the case for an immediate rate hike, and the Fed has rarely implemented surprise hikes in its history, so most voting members are unlikely to back action this week. However, market pricing shows investors cannot fully rule out a 25 basis point rate hike. JPMorgan Chase’s Michael Feroli takes a more cautious stance. He believes the policy framework and communication mechanism reforms pushed by Fed Chair Warsh will not quickly alter the interest rate path in the short term. JPMorgan still projects the Fed will hold rates steady through the rest of 2026, with the next potential rate hike not coming until September 2027. Feroli also notes that the softening CPI has bought time for the FOMC, but the Fed retains its tightening bias. By contrast, Neil Dutta, chief economist at Renaissance Macro, warns markets to guard against a surprise July rate hike. He points to factors including steady employment, AI-fueled demand, elevated oil prices and services inflation, and persistent tariff pressures that could prompt the Fed to act earlier. For U.S. stocks, the interest rate uncertainty paired with earnings reports from tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon will directly impact risk appetite for high-valuation growth stocks and AI-related trades.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), during this morning’s Hyperliquid Shanghai pin event, three addresses earned $6.958 million by having their short positions liquidated at low prices via the Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) mechanism. Specifically: the address starting with 0xd04 triggered ADL to liquidate 4,510 SKHX short positions at $931.36, netting $2.185 million; the address starting with 0xcaf liquidated 5,920 SKHX short positions at the same price, profiting $2.55 million; and the address starting with 0x84a liquidated 6,010 SKHX short positions at $931.36, gaining $2.223 million. Hyperliquid’s ADL (Auto-Deleveraging) serves as a final safeguard in extreme market conditions: when a forced liquidation position incurs a deficit and the HLP insurance fund cannot cover the loss, the system sorts profitable counterparties using the formula (mark price/entry price) × (notional position/account value), prioritizing the forced liquidation of high-profit, high-leverage positions at the mark price. This uses the unrealized profits of these positions to cover bad debts, ensuring the platform does not generate negative equity.

According to Hyperinsight’s monitoring, as of press time, Hyperliquid’s Shanghai-listed SK Hynix (SKHX) trades at $1069.5, while its U.S. ADR contract (SKHY) stands at $137.91. Converted, the ADR equivalent price is roughly $1379.1, a 28.9% premium over SKHX. This premium narrowed by about 4 percentage points from around 33.0% yesterday; over the same period, SKHX fell 13.5% and SKHY dropped 16.2%. The whale wallet starting with 0x434, which earlier executed a spread trade of "short SKHX, long SKHY" to bet on widening spreads, has closed out both positions entirely ahead of the earnings report, generating an approximate total profit of $442,700: - At 15:00 today, it sold 20,000 SKHY long positions at an average price of ~$137.6, for a total transaction value of ~$2.753 million, logging a loss of ~$133,000; - In the same window, it covered 4,500 SKHX short positions at an average price of ~$1071.1, for a total transaction value of ~$4.82 million, logging a profit of ~$576,000. Calculated from the average entry price, the implied ADR premium at its cost was around 20.4%, while the average exit price corresponds to a ~28.5% premium, meaning the spread widening trade has been realized. However, this position was not an equal hedge: the original SKHY long position only covered roughly 44.4% of the SKHX short position, with profits coming partially from the decline of the Korean stock mapping contract. SK Hynix will release its second-quarter earnings at 9:00 KST (8:00 Beijing Time). The whale completed its exit roughly 17 hours ahead of the earnings report, signaling it has stopped betting on further premium expansion, likely to prevent the spread from converging further ahead of the earnings window.

According to an official announcement, Binance will delist the following spot trading pairs and halt trading on them at 11:00 (UTC+8 time) on July 31, 2026: ERA/BNB, MAGIC/USDC, MASK/USDC, MOVE/TRY, MOVE/USDC, POL/BTC, STORJ/TRY, and SUSHI/USDC. The spot trading bot services for these pairs will also be terminated simultaneously. Users are advised to update or cancel relevant settings in advance. The delisting of these spot trading pairs does not affect the availability of the corresponding tokens on the spot market, and users can still trade the related tokens via other trading pairs.

According to Bitget market data, the storage sector has undergone a deep correction and fallen into a technical bear market. South Korean stock SK Hynix has plunged nearly 50% from its June peak of 2,987,000 won (approx. $2,043) to 1,550,000 won (approx. $1,060); Samsung Electronics has dropped about 41% from its June high of 374,500 won (approx. $256) to 220,000 won (approx. $150). South Korea’s KOSPI index stands at 6,023 points, down roughly 36% from its June peak of 9,385.59 points. Japanese storage stock Kioxia has fallen over 60% from its peak of 112,700 yen to 44,550 yen. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. stocks Micron Technology has corrected around 29% from its peak, SanDisk down ~46%, Seagate down ~29%, and Western Digital down ~38%. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) has corrected over 35%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down about 21%.

Hefei Investment Holding Group, the largest state-owned Chinese investor in Changxin Technology, stated in a published announcement that it invested in Changxin in 2016, helping the firm grow into China’s largest, most technologically advanced, and most comprehensively integrated enterprise for the R&D, design, and manufacturing of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM). Over the past decade, adhering to the concepts of "serving the country through industry", long-termism, and patient capital, Hefei Investment Holding Group has continuously maintained a heavy stake in the Changxin project, accompanying the company through industry cycles on its path of determined innovation and progress. As Changxin Technology’s founding shareholder and largest state-owned investor, Hefei Investment Holding Group extended warm and sincere congratulations to the firm on its successful listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market). Going forward, Hefei Investment Holding Group will continue to uphold the principles of long-termism and patient capital, support Changxin Technology’s development as always, deepen all-round cooperation, and jointly help Hefei build a globally influential integrated circuit industry hub.