Federal Reserve's Mester: Need to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged for a While
**Fed’s Mester: High Oil Prices May Lift Core Inflation, Justify Steady Rates Temporarily**
April 16, Federal Reserve official Mester said Wednesday high oil prices could push remaining core inflation this year nearly a percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target, signaling the central bank may need to hold interest rates steady.
“We’re likely to see some pass-through of oil prices to core inflation,” Mester noted, adding key inflation measures will end the year “a bit below 3%, perhaps around 3%” with further upside risks.
The Fed may keep its policy rate in the current 3.50%-3.75% range “for some time” while monitoring inflation, employment and economic data in coming months—a view shared by many colleagues. Last year’s tariff hikes are likely to fade gradually this quarter, and housing inflation is easing. However, rising oil prices have kept inflation elevated across service industries; Mester said he would be open to rate hikes if inflation rises and boosts expectations.
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The Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged as Expected, Bitcoin Maintains Strength, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit New Highs
April 16: Per HTX market data, Bitcoin extended its rally after Federal Reserve official Mester noted rates should remain unchanged for some time. It’s currently trading at $74,709, up 0.89% over the past 24 hours. Total network liquidations hit $260 million in the same period, with $110 million in long liquidations and $150 million in short liquidations.
Per Bitget data, U.S. equities closed Wednesday with the Dow Jones falling 0.15%, the S&P 500 rising 0.8%, and the Nasdaq climbing 1.59%—the latter two notching fresh all-time highs. Crude oil futures pulled back, with WTI and Brent crude trading lower intraday.
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Iran Proposes "Strait of Tangibility" Negotiation Plan, Uncertainty Looms Over US-Iran Standoff
April 16 (Local Time) — White House Press Secretary Levitt said Wednesday that reports the White House is seeking an extension of the Iran ceasefire are inaccurate. She noted communications with Iran on the second round of negotiations have been “productive,” and the talks are likely to resume in Pakistan.
Reuters reports a source familiar with Tehran’s stance said Iran may consider allowing unimpeded shipping in the Omani portion of the Strait of Hormuz — without risk of attack — if a deal to de-escalate conflict is reached. The proposal includes this idea, per the source. Iran would keep control of its own waters in the strait, while Oman would oversee matters in its portion. The source did not clarify if Iran would remove any mines it may have placed there, or if all vessels (including those tied to Israel) would get safe passage. The proposal hinges on Washington meeting Tehran’s demands, the source added — a key condition for any breakthrough on the strait.
April 15 (Local Time)
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Bitcoin Surges Above $75,000
On April 16th, Bitcoin rebounded and broke through the $75,000 mark, according to HTX market data, posting a 24-hour gain of 1.26%.
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Lebanese Official: Ceasefire Agreement in Lebanon to be Declared "Soon," Duration May Be Linked to US-Iran Truce
April 16 — Per the Financial Times, Lebanese officials have disclosed that amid U.S. pressure to de-escalate Middle East tensions, a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon to end over six weeks of hostilities is expected to be announced “soon.”
Sources with knowledge of the situation said the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah could take effect “this week” — most likely after Israeli ground forces finish seizing the key southern Lebanese town of Bent Jbeil. The Lebanon conflict has emerged as a focal point in broader efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which broke out on February 28.
Lebanese officials noted that once the ceasefire is announced, its length will likely be tied to that of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal. One Lebanese official said the ceasefire will cover a halt to Israeli attacks but will not mandate an Israeli withdrawal. Other officials noted the ceasefire efforts are being led by the U.S.
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