Rate Decision Preview: Dot Plot Set to Update, Expectation for Rate Cuts to Increase

September 17: The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision tonight at 2 a.m. and release the interest rate path dot plot. A number of institutions are optimistic that the number of interest rate cuts this year will increase: 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot will suggest room for three interest rate cuts this year, one more than in the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The median of the updated dot plot may indicate a total of 75 basis points of interest rate cuts by 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays Bank: The dot plot will show three interest rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the long-term median interest rate forecast will remain unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median interest rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at the October and December meetings. Many institutions believe the dot plot will remain the same as in June: 1. StoneX Group: The Federal Reserve is likely to fall short of market expectations, with the dot plot median likely to stay unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative 50 basis points of interest rate cuts this year. 2. UBS Group: The dot plot will show two interest rate cuts this year, while the market anticipates nearly three cuts. In addition, participants' economic outlooks will also be a focus. 3. Bank of America: Against a backdrop of largely stable macro forecasts, the median Federal Reserve interest rate for 2025 will continue to show a 50 basis point cut, despite an overall downward shift in the dot plot distribution. 4. Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the new dot plot will show two interest rate cuts this year to 3.875%. Although the Federal Reserve is currently or planning to cut interest rates three times this year, it may also consider that there is no need to forcefully reflect this in the dot plot. 5. Morgan Stanley: It is expected that the median in this dot plot will still show two interest rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may prompt the Fed to continue cutting interest rates throughout the rest of this year and extend this round of cuts into January next year. (Jinshi).