A Whale with $2.6M Shorts LIT, Valuation Discrepancy Deepens Ahead of Airdrop
As of Dec 25, HyperInsight monitoring shows a whale address (0xdaa) deposited $2.6M in collateral to Hyperliquid yesterday and opened a ~$1.256M 1x-leveraged short position on LIT. The position has an average entry price of $3.53 and a liquidation price of $6.98. As of press time, the address is still adding to the position, with $970K in unused collateral remaining.
LIT is currently trading at ~$3.47, with a pre-market fully diluted valuation (FDV) of ~$3.4B. For market sentiment, Polymarket data shows the probability of the bet “Lighter’s FDV remains above $3B one day post-listing” has dropped ~7% today, now sitting at ~55%.
Previously, on Dec 20, Lighter transferred 250M LIT tokens (~25% of total supply) to a new address. If this tranche is fully used for future airdrops, each Lighter point would correspond to ~20.8 LIT tokens. Based on current pre-market prices, each point is valued at ~$71.1, and most of the market expects Lighter to airdrop on Dec 31.
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PlanB: Now is the buy-the-dip opportunity in the ETH bottom range, with 2026 expected to be a strong bull market.
On December 25, Daniel, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), posted on social media:
“Paper losses are all short-term — the long-term trend is a bull market. Our moves this year — bottom-fishing early on, selling before 1011, and now bottom-fishing again — have all been transparent and consistent.”
Separately, Liquid Capital isn’t blindly confident in large-scale bottom-fishing just because its past trades were correct. The team’s daily research and efforts all point to the current price range being a bottom, with a major bull market expected in 2026. “We don’t want to miss out on thousands of dollars in gains because of hundreds of dollars in volatility,” the firm noted, adding it’s prepared to continue buying ETH on dips with a $1 billion allocation.
A report released today reveals Daniel’s Trend Research currently holds 645,000 ETH at an average price of $3,150, with an unrealized loss of $143 million.
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Early Bitcoin Advocate Erik Voorhees Once Again Moves 1635 ETH to THORChain to Swap for BCH
December 25th — Per LookOnChain monitoring, Erik Voorhees, an early Bitcoin evangelist, has again deposited 1,635 ETH (valued at roughly $4.81 million) into THORChain to swap for BCH.
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Bitcoin Volatility currently stands at 2.01%, slightly higher than the average level since mid-May.
### Bitcoin Volatility Update (Dec 25)
Coinglass data shows Bitcoin’s current volatility is 2.01%—slightly above its average since mid-May. Over the past month, BTC has traded in a narrow range between $80,000 and $95,000, while the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, signaling prevailing bearish sentiment in the market.
**BlockBeats Note**
High Bitcoin volatility often ties to speculative trading and retail FOMO (fear of missing out). A drop in volatility may mean fewer short-term speculators, with the market entering a consolidation phase or “cooling-off period.” Additionally, BTC’s price volatility frequently correlates with macroeconomic events like inflation expectations, interest rate shifts, or geopolitical risks. When these external factors stabilize, Bitcoin’s volatility tends to decline accordingly.
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Morgan Stanley: U.S. 'No Job Productivity Boom' Will Prompt Fed to Further Cut Rates
On December 25, a Morgan Stanley strategist noted the U.S. economy could be heading for a "jobless productivity-driven boom"—one that would cool inflation and clear the way for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.
U.S. Labor Department data shows year-over-year hourly output growth for all nonfarm workers hit 3.3% in the second quarter, a sharp improvement from the 1.8% annual decline in the prior quarter.
Investors’ expectations for the pace of Fed rate cuts next year are more aggressive than the central bank’s official forecasts.
Per the CME FedWatch Tool, Fed officials project just one rate cut by 2026, but investors see a 72% probability of a year-end rate cut (source: FXStreet).
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Overview of Mainstream Coin Rates on Pacifica, with noticeable spread for SOL, 2Z, and other coins
On December 25th, **Pacifica**—a decentralized perpetual contract trading platform—now lets users view funding rate data across multiple platforms: Pacifica itself, Binance, Hyperliquid, Bybit, and Lighter. This makes it easy to quickly compare rate differences between exchanges.
Pacifica traders have already deployed arbitrage strategies by opening long and short positions simultaneously. Per Pacifica’s real-time funding rate data, the following major crypto assets have notable positive or negative rate gaps vs. other platforms:
- HYPE: Pacifica vs. Bybit: +0.00188%
- BCH: Pacifica vs. Binance: +0.00108%
- SOL: Pacifica vs. Hyperliquid/Binance: -0.00215%
- WLFI: Pacifica vs. Binance: +0.00337%
- 2Z: Pacifica vs. Hyperliquid: +0.01%
For traders looking to do high-frequency trading or boost volume to earn points, funding rates can also help pick trading pairs with manageable costs.
On-chain data analysis and copy-trading tool Coinbob has launched **Coinbob Pacifica**
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