Analysis: Weak demand persists in the US market, Bitcoin's July rally may struggle to sustain
Multiple indicators show Bitcoin’s July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched metrics, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. The index measures the price gap of BTC between U.S. exchange Coinbase and Binance. BTC’s price on Coinbase has consistently lagged that on Binance, indicating relatively weak demand in the U.S. market. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows for 8 straight weeks, while historically, Bitcoin bull markets are typically accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields have continued to climb, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield hitting a 30-year high and pushing up borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K., and Germany. If U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, this could act as a headwind for BTC. Bitfinex analysts noted that structural institutional buying has not been confirmed until BlackRock’s IBIT resumes consistent net inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that if spot Bitcoin ETFs sustain the inflow trend seen since last Friday, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The firm added that if BTC firmly reclaims the $64,000 level this week, it will further boost market sentiment and ease concerns over publicly traded Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy (MSTR).
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