Analyst: The Fed Has More Reasons to Hold Off on Rate Cuts

On July 4th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned that the forthcoming Trump tax legislation might complicate the task of reducing the fiscal deficit and debt burden in the coming years. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack mentioned that the US needs to gradually decrease public borrowing in order to start significantly reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is also a crucial measure of debt sustainability. Kozack stated: "The bill appears to be contrary to the goal of reducing debt in the medium term." The IMF generally defines "medium term" as three to five years. According to Congressional Budget Office data, the bill will lead to an increase in the deficit by $3.3 trillion. (FXStreet)

July 4th: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen declared that the market is indicating a Fed rate cut. Thereafter, when asked by President Trump about his demand for a specific rate cut from the Fed, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen refrained from providing a definite response. (FXStreet)

On July 4th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen announced that it is expected that a large number of trade agreements will be reached by July 9th. It is estimated that approximately 100 countries will be subject to at least a 10% tariff rate, and multiple trade agreements will be made public. (FXStreet)

On July 4th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that it is initially possible to replenish the Treasury's general account by issuing Treasury bills. The U.S. banking industry will assume a greater burden of debt issuance. It is anticipated that stablecoin legislation will stimulate the demand for U.S. Treasuries. By the end of Trump's tenure, the national debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach the range of 90%. (Jin10)

On July 4th, Bloomberg's Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas disclosed that IBIT has now become BlackRock's third-highest-grossing ETF. Among BlackRock's total of 1197 funds, it stands out. It is only $9 billion behind the top spot. For an ETF that is only 1.5 years old (still in its early stage), this is a remarkable feat. The chart below presents the top ten highest-grossing funds under BlackRock.

July 4th: The Democratic leader, Jeffrey, set a record for the longest speech in the House of Representatives. He spoke for over eight hours in an attempt to delay the passage of the "Beautiful Act" bill. During his speech, Jeffrey read out letters from constituents who might be affected by the cuts to the social security safety net program and criticized Republican lawmakers who were about to support the bill. This speech was the Democrats' final effort to delay the bill's passage. Nevertheless, the bill is still anticipated to pass later on Thursday in order to meet the Republicans' self-imposed July 4th deadline. Most Republicans remained unperturbed by the speech. The House Speaker, Johnson, referred to the speech as "a complete waste of everyone's time." (Jinse Finace)