U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data to be Released Tonight, U.S. Stocks May Experience Significant Volatility as a Result

On July 3rd, JPMorgan's trading department carried out a simulation exercise indicating that if the job data announced on Thursday is similar to the weak trend in the earlier ADP report, the U.S. stock market is likely to witness a significant sell-off. JPMorgan has outlined market reactions in different scenarios: Job Addition 85K - 105K: The S&P 500 Index may decline by 0.25% - 1.5%; Below 85K: The S&P 500 Index is at the risk of a sharp decline of 2% - 3%; The report cautioned: "In the worst-case scenario, the market will face stagflation (slow economic growth accompanied by high inflation) risk, at which point both fiscal and monetary policies may become ineffective." The report specifically noted: "As long as the non-farm payroll data is above 100K, the stock market will still receive support." Of course, job data has also performed better than expected in the past and such a situation could occur again. JPMorgan's prediction: Job Addition 125K - 145K: The S&P 500 Index may rise by 0.75% - 1.25%; Above 145K: The S&P 500 Index gains could expand to 1% - 1.5%. (Jinshi)