Bitfinex Alpha: Bitcoin Price Likely to Consolidate Unless Significant Macroeconomic Event or Bullish Catalyst

On July 2nd, Bitfinex Alpha released a report indicating that the recent narrowing price trend of Bitcoin suggests a cooling of on-chain and derivative trading activities. This is specifically manifested as a decrease in spot trading volume, weakening of buy-side order book pressure, and a reduction in open interest. It highlights that the market is transitioning from an aggressive bullish phase to a range-bound phase. The realized price of Bitcoin for short-term holders is around $98,700, which has become a key structural support level. When the price experiences a pullback, dip buyers often accumulate Bitcoin at this level, especially during the recent market correction triggered by the escalated tensions between Iran and Israel, where this support has been particularly evident. Bitfinex points out that historically, the third quarter is the weakest-performing quarter for Bitcoin, with an average return of only 6.03%, which is significantly lower than the 27.12% return in the second quarter. Additionally, this quarter typically experiences lower volatility. This seasonal pattern, combined with the current technical outlook, indicates that the Bitcoin price may continue to consolidate sideways unless there is a significant macroeconomic event or positive factors related to ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) to break this situation.