Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

Crypto analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the average cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) is nearly $76,000, with the current price testing their holding confidence. The STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) is approaching the neutral level of 1; the indicator rose above 1.18 in late September, hitting its highest point since July 2025, signaling that the group’s unrealized profit was at a more than one-year high at that time. He pointed out that the cost basis of short-term holders has been steadily rising since mid-August (when it stood at around $67,500), showing that this group participated in Bitcoin’s rally over the same period. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s medium-term momentum turning positive, the price range corresponding to MVRV returning to neutral may prompt short-term holders to take action: either continue buying, or capitulate and sell as seen yesterday. He noted that both behaviors typically coexist, but it remains to be seen whether holding confidence will prevail.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei met with senior commanders of the armed forces and issued directives: Maintaining a prudent state of combat readiness and confronting enemies with formidable force is a necessary condition for achieving "maximum deterrence". He ordered that all threats, regardless of their level or form, must be met with an immediate, effective response unconstrained by geographic boundaries. Mujtaba emphasized that if enemies launch another military or terrorist attack, the Iranian Armed Forces and the Iranian people will be the ones to determine the timing and terms of the conflict’s end. He also stressed the need to strengthen the military intelligence system, deepen indigenous defense capabilities in both "theoretical" and "tactical" domains, leverage new technologies to advance modern national defense and security capabilities, boost spiritual strength and combat morale, and consistently meet the living needs and logistical support of the armed forces. The directives also call for updating target lists to ensure all tangible and intangible assets of hostile forces, namely the United States and Israel, fall within the strike range of the Iranian Armed Forces. Mujtaba expressed gratitude for the unwavering stance of resistance fronts in various countries, noting that unity across all sectors is a decisive, strategically significant variable in shaping a new political and security order in West Asia. He hoped this new order would further unify the peoples and governments of Islamic countries, creating conditions for the establishment of a new Islamic civilization.

According to a Bloomberg report, Binance stated it is discussing the feasibility and structure of a licensed business model with Malaysian regulators, aiming to formally re-enter the local market. A spokesperson for the exchange added that it has been in communication with Malaysia’s Securities Commission (SC) and Bank Negara Malaysia over the past 10 months, but did not disclose the specific type of license it intends to apply for. In July 2021, Malaysia’s Securities Commission deemed Binance’s digital asset trading platform operations illegal, ordering it to halt its local business and marketing activities. The regulator removed Binance from its investor alert list in 2024, but re-listed the exchange this month without giving a reason. In response to a request from Member of Parliament Lim Guan Eng to investigate whether Binance’s P2P platform facilitated ringgit transactions under the guise of other currencies, Binance said it has voluntarily shut down a Papua New Guinean kina trading market that was informally linked to the Malaysian ringgit. The latest complaint concerns individual advertisements posted by a non-Malaysian user on the Romanian leu market. Binance noted this does not represent a continuous effort to evade local laws, and added that it will continue to cooperate with regulators to provide services in a compliant manner.

According to a report from the Financial Times, after Binance’s $6.3 billion theft, multiple cryptocurrency exchanges are ramping up security measures and updating customers on their fund safety status. Coinbase Chief Security Officer Jeff Lunglhofer said the firm has made partial adjustments to its cold storage systems “out of an abundance of caution.” Gemini has added alerts and restrictions for fund transfers; Kraken stated it is closely monitoring the situation, with platform services operating normally. Coinbase Product Vice President Will Megson also noted the company is significantly upgrading phone security measures to protect users from scam calls, pointing out that scammers often stay on the line while tricking victims into modifying account settings. In a Friday evening update, Binance announced it had contained the compromised infrastructure, revoked affected authorizations, and added control measures to prevent further unauthorized activity. Its initial investigation found an engineer’s laptop was hacked, followed by the discovery of additional breach points. As of press time, withdrawals remained suspended, with the platform expecting a recovery in roughly 34 hours. Blockchain tracking firms attributed the attack to North Korea-linked hacker group TraderTraitor. Chainalysis said after the funds left Binance, attackers used automated tools to transfer stolen funds on the Tron network, and warned all exchanges to stay vigilant. OKX CEO Star Xu called on the industry to establish real-time security incident notification, collaborative monitoring of suspicious funds, and rapid response mechanisms for potential attacks, while also strengthening defenses against emerging AI-driven security threats.

According to CNBC, Google parent Alphabet’s stock fell more than 12% to $285 after the release of its third-quarter earnings, with its market capitalization shrinking nearly $500 billion. While Google Cloud revenue rose 103% year-over-year, investors focused on earnings per share (EPS) missing estimates and negative free cash flow amid ongoing AI infrastructure spending. Mike Khouw wrote in a CNBC column that Alphabet’s core business fundamentals remain intact, but two headwinds stand in the way of a sharp near-term rebound. First, multiple financial institutions have cut their ratings, target prices, or future earnings forecasts. He noted that stocks facing concentrated rating cuts historically tend to underperform the broader market or trade sideways over the subsequent 30 days, and institutional portfolio rebalancing will also limit upside momentum. Second, the post-earnings gap-down selloff further weakened the stock’s technical pattern. On the technical front, Alphabet’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to the low 20s, and its MACD sell signals have strengthened. However, Khouw argued that the stock’s proximity to its 52-week low of $270.70, paired with extreme oversold conditions, may cap further declines. On the trading strategy front, Khouw proposed using a short straddle options strategy to position for the expected range-bound volatility. He noted that a continued broad market selloff is the key downside risk, while an unexpected positive catalyst driving a sharp stock rally could threaten the strategy’s short call option leg.

Jake Chervinsky, CEO of Hyperliquid Policy Center, Hyperliquid’s lobbying group, wrote that the Binance hack incident once again demonstrates that crypto exchanges perform best and are most secure when operating under CFTC regulation. Citing remarks from CFTC Chairman Michael Selig during the announcement of the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) for Reg CTX/CAM, Chervinsky noted that when FTX’s offshore exchange went bankrupt, its CFTC-registered subsidiary’s customer assets remained segregated and secure.