Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

As of March 29th, per analyst @alicharts, key support levels for Ethereum stand at $1,881, $1,584, and $1,238, while resistance levels sit at $2,029 and $2,079.

As of March 29, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in April has dropped to 4.1% (it briefly rose to 12.4% on March 23), while the odds of holding rates steady stand at 95.9%.

March 29 – Iranian sources reported Wednesday that Ali Larijani, Speaker of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly, said the U.S. is publicly discussing negotiations while secretly planning a ground attack. Larijani stated Iran’s armed forces are “waiting” for a U.S. ground incursion and will “punish” its regional allies. Earlier, U.S. reports indicated the Pentagon is preparing for “weeks-long ground operations” in Iran. It remains unclear to what extent U.S. President Trump will approve the Pentagon’s action plan. (CCTV News)

**CryptoQuant Analyst Darkfost: BTC’s Adjusted Realized Price (~$72.5k) Acts as Resistance** On March 29, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated: “BTC has yet to reclaim its realized price excluding long-term inactive supply. Excluding Bitcoin held for over 7 years—filtering out lost coins and ‘diamond hands’ with long-term inactive holdings—better reflects actual circulating supply. Under this adjustment, BTC’s realized price is ~$72,500, currently acting as a resistance level.” BTC has traded below this level for roughly two months. In every prior bear market cycle, BTC stayed below this cost basis for 6–10 months without effectively reclaiming the level in that period. Should this pattern hold, BTC could face continued pressure in the coming months, with prices likely staying below $72,500.

**March 29th — On-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa) reports the Trump team is suspected of selling over $16.06 million worth of TRUMP tokens.** **In the past two hours, BitGo’s custody address transferred 5.48 million TRUMP to OKX. Tracing the funds reveals the address received 18.14 million TRUMP from the Trump Team Allocation address (the team’s share) two months ago — that amount was valued at $81.64 million at the time.**

As of March 29th, Coinglass data shows Bitcoin is trading at $66,699.75 (a 0.24% gain over 24 hours), while Ethereum sits at $2,005.49 (0.08% change in the same period). Mainstream centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchange funding rates point to bearish signals for BTC and ETH, with market sentiment remaining subdued. Specifically, ETH funding rates are negative across most platforms (including Binance). OKX’s rate is positive but remains below the 0.005% threshold—signaling an overall bearish range for ETH. For BTC, rates are negative on key platforms like Binance, with short traders continuing to pay longs to maintain their positions. Funding rates for other major coins are detailed in the attached image. BlockBeats Note: Funding rates are fees set by crypto exchanges to align perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices. They facilitate a fund transfer between long and short traders—exchanges do not collect this fee. The mechanism adjusts the cost or profit of c