Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

On March 4, Trump stated the U.S. has five months to impose a 15% tariff on various countries, and will roll out the tariffs for different nations gradually after the deadline. However, a White House correspondent for a foreign outlet noted that Trump has repeatedly claimed today the alternative 15% tariff is in effect—but the White House has not implemented it, and the tariff remains at 10%.

On March 4, Trump said every country wants to renegotiate its existing deals and he will step up tariff measures with certain countries.

On March 4th, Arkham data indicates a U.S. government-associated address completed two additional transactions, transferring 0.24 BTC and 0.0568 BTC respectively. This follows a 0.0378 BTC transfer two hours prior, pushing the total outgoing amount tonight to 0.3346 BTC—roughly $23,000. This operation may be a transaction test, with more transfers likely to follow.

**March 4** Following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, both issued public statements. Merkel stated she shares Trump’s stance on overthrowing the “Iranian terrorist regime” and discussed planning for a “post-Iran” era. Trump’s remarks included: - Iran is attacking countries unrelated to the current situation; - Iran no longer has functional air defense or detection facilities; - The U.S. launched another strike targeting Iran’s new leader today and will continue military action; - Worst-case scenario: attacking Iran only to see its new leader prove as problematic as the previous one; - The U.S. hopes for a more suitable candidate; will monitor Iran’s response but first complete ongoing military action; - It may be preferable for internal Iranian personnel to address the country’s issues. Per monitoring from PolyBeats (via Telegram bot @PolyBeats_Bot), Polymarket prediction market odds show: - Probability Iran’s

March 4 – U.S. President Donald Trump met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the White House. Trump said everything in Iran has been destroyed, the U.S. has done very well, and they are discussing some major trade deals.

On March 4, an Iranian news agency quoted a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official as saying Iran has vowed to target all regional economic centers if any of its major cities are attacked.