Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

U.S. President Trump said on March 31 that a war with Iran would not last "too long." (Xinhua)

On March 31, blockchain analytics firm LookOnChain reported that a whale linked to address bc1qh4 transferred 600 BTC (valued at $40.41 million) to Binance after two years of inactivity.

TEHRAN (FX168) — Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on March 31, per Iranian state media, that it will target American companies operating in the region starting April 1 in retaliation for attacks against Iran. The IRGC also warned 18 U.S. tech firms in its statement, including HP, Apple, Google, Tesla, and Microsoft.

CoinDesk (March 31) — Bitcoin mining firm Bitfarms is accelerating its exit from the crypto sector, confirming it has begun selling a portion of its Bitcoin holdings as it pivots to an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure business. The company generated $28.2 million in revenue from Bitcoin sales in 2025, though it did not disclose the exact number of coins sold. Management has stated plans to continue these sales. Per data from BitcoinTreasuries.net, Bitfarms currently holds 1,827 Bitcoins. During Tuesday’s fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Ben Gagnon noted: “Over time, we will eventually hold no Bitcoin at all.” He added the firm will “opportunistically sell Bitcoin during market strength” and keep operating its miners to “maximize free cash flow before selling the machines.” This signals a gradual exit rather than an immediate liquidation. Bitfarms is also undergoing a structural shift: Shareholders have approved its relocation to the U.S. and rebranding to Keel Infr

March 31 — Stablecoin-backed cross-border payment firm Latitude has closed an $8 million funding round, led by NEA with participation from Lightspeed Faction, Coinbase, Paxos, and the Solana Foundation, among others, per Fortune magazine. The company’s core product is a global payment solution that lets U.S. businesses send funds to individuals in over 50 countries. When a U.S. company sends dollars via Latitude, its network first converts the currency to a stablecoin, which is then exchanged for the recipient’s local currency. Latitude’s three co-founders previously worked at firms including Uber, Coinbase, Meta, and Stripe. They said their backgrounds in crypto, tech, and payments have led them to recognize the critical need for efficient global fund flows.

March 31st: U.S. consumer confidence ticked up slightly in March, The Conference Board reported, rising 0.8 points to 91.8 from February’s 91.0. The Present Situation Index—tracking consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions—climbed 4.6 points to 123.3. By contrast, the Expectations Index fell 1.7 points to 70.9. Upward cost pressures from tariff pass-through and surging oil prices have emerged in other metrics, including inflation expectations. “Consumer confidence edged up again slightly in March, driven mostly by improved views of current conditions that offset a modest weakening in future expectations,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Three of five sub-indexes improved this month, marking the second straight modest gain in overall confidence. Still, the index has trended downward overall since 2021.” Data also shows that amid the oil price shock tied to the Iran conflict, consumers’ average and median 12-month in