Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

According to market sources, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Blockchain.com will explore trading crypto versions of U.S.-listed stocks.

Cosmos Hub released an official statement noting that validators have successfully restarted the Cosmos Hub network as planned, block production has resumed, the network is operating normally, and the team will continue monitoring network status and issuing further updates.

Joseph Chalom, CEO of SharpLink, an Ethereum treasury firm, stated in a post that as AI agents integrate with stablecoins, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and on-chain financial infrastructure such as DeFi, more than $1 trillion in annual global financial services revenue will be reallocated by 2030, a figure that could reach $4 trillion by 2035. Chalom noted that AI agents will serve as the automation layer of the new financial system, capable of continuously managing investors’ financial activities—including securing lower bank, transaction, and lending fees, optimizing savings returns, building investment portfolios, dynamic rebalancing, and managing loans and credit card debt. He projected that AI agents will save investors roughly $350 billion annually by reducing fees by 2030, a figure that will rise to $1.4 trillion by 2035—equivalent to eliminating nearly a quarter of global financial industry fees. Stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and DeFi will provide AI agents with 24/7 programmable financial infrastructure, enabling agents to view asset ownership, prices, collateral requirements, and lending opportunities within the same on-chain environment, and autonomously execute asset transfers, collateralization, lending, and settlement. He added that financial institutions including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, PayPal, Circle, Tether, Robinhood, Coinbase, Binance, as well as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and BlackRock are all competing for infrastructure and user entry points in the AI agent financial ecosystem. Whoever controls the infrastructure and agents will likely capture the value generated from transactions executed by agents on behalf of clients. In addition, Chalom pointed out that infrastructure such as Coinbase’s x402 machine-to-machine stablecoin payment standard and Ethereum’s ERC-8004 agent identity protocol are forming a new open agent economy. Over 10,000 AI agents have registered in the 10 weeks since ERC-8004’s launch.

Against a backdrop of a stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials—further cementing market expectations of tighter monetary policy—gold prices fell amid range-bound trading. The U.S. dollar rose to a two-month high, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "Gold continues to trade within its established narrow range of $4,300 to $4,400. Fed officials’ comments, their impact on U.S. interest rates, bond yields and the dollar, along with oil price trends, collectively provide the primary direction for short-term traders." Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said Tuesday that interest rate hikes and the threat of future additional hikes could curb corporate inflation expectations and cool price increases without significantly weighing on economic activity. (Jin10)

Citigroup said in its latest market strategy presentation that the U.S. Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act to formal consideration has not halted Bitcoin’s rally. After the bill’s procedural vote stalled, Bitcoin remained strong, indicating capital has begun reducing reliance on a single legislative node and is instead focusing on whether regulatory rules can continue moving forward. Citigroup believes the legislative setback will limit the CFTC from gaining more comprehensive crypto market regulatory authority in the short term, but the SEC can still advance some rulemakings under its existing powers. For the market, this means the crypto industry’s compliance process still has room to proceed, with the subsequent focus on the SEC’s actual implementation pace of rules for trading, tokenized assets, and market access. Additionally, the macro environment remains a variable for Bitcoin’s rally. Citigroup’s economic team’s baseline assessment is that this round of interest rate hikes is likely near a “one-and-done” scenario; however, its quantitative macro team warns that if AI investment continues to underpin growth, and employment and wage pressures persist, interest rates may face further upward revision risks. Citigroup views Bitcoin’s break above its medium-term moving average as a signal of warming risk appetite, and notes its correlation with Nasdaq performance warrants continued monitoring.

Glassnode stated in a social media post that the four-year cycle playbook many investors rely on has not worked for Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bear market. To date, the drawdowns of the previous three bear markets were more than double that of this cycle, and each was still weeks away from their respective lows at comparable stages. As weeks pass, the likelihood of BTC falling to the depths seen in prior bear cycles appears increasingly slim.