Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

According to on-chain data from Visa, in the first half of 2026, Circle’s stablecoin USDC accounted for approximately 70% of adjusted stablecoin trading volume, further widening its lead over rival Tether’s USDT. In the same period, USDT held a roughly 25% share. The data shows adjusted stablecoin trading volume hit a record $1.79 trillion in June, up 63% from $1.1 trillion in May and 125% from around $795 billion in June 2025. When calculating adjusted trading volume, Visa excludes bot activity, exchange transfers, and other blockchain transactions that do not reflect genuine economic activity. The data release comes as banks and other financial institutions expand their use of stablecoins in payments, settlements, and fund management. Standard Chartered and BNY Mellon recently added services related to Circle’s USDC rather than building their own infrastructure, reflecting that amid rising activity and demand for fiat-pegged digital assets, financial institutions are increasingly leveraging established stablecoin networks. Adjusted stablecoin trading volume totaled $8.82 trillion in the first six months of this year, higher than the full-year 2024 figure of $5.8 trillion, but still roughly $2 trillion lower than the 2025 record of $10.8 trillion. In 2020, USDT once accounted for nearly 90% of adjusted trading volume, while USDC held less than 10%; by 2022, USDC’s share had risen to around 45%.

US President Donald Trump said: "Some short sellers are in deep trouble and are being liquidated. I have never liked short sellers because they are betting against the country."

Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the Federal Reserve will not deliberately keep interest rates low to help the U.S. government finance its fiscal deficit, noting that it is reasonable to consider setting an inflation target range. Fed Chair Walsh is reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to the 2% inflation target, and favors setting an inflation target range, but adjusting the inflation target at this stage would undermine the central bank’s credibility. (Jinshi)

According to HTX market data, Ethereum has broken through the $1,800 threshold, posting a 1.4% gain in the past 24 hours.

Nvidia has denied a report from SemiAnalysis regarding product delays, stating that its AI chip roadmap remains on track.

The Kobeissi Letter has stated it now believes the S&P 500 is poised to break above 8,000 points, as chip stocks have quietly emerged as the new leading sector in this bull market. While many stocks in the "Magnificent Seven" have fallen more than 20% from their recent highs, semiconductor stocks have taken over market leadership. Year-to-date, 8 of the top 10 performing stocks in the S&P 500 belong to the chip sector. Though large-cap tech stocks, which have led the market since 2022, have weakened, the S&P 500 is currently only about 1% below its all-time high. This marks the first time since 2022 that the market has risen led by sectors outside the Magnificent Seven, while the Magnificent Seven have moved in the opposite direction. The Letter views this rotation as positive, as the Magnificent Seven are poised to retake their leadership role. As large-cap tech stocks begin to reclaim leadership, and whether semiconductors continue to outperform or cool off, the S&P 500 is on track to rise above 8,000 points, with asset holders set to continue benefiting.