Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

March 12 — Per Onchain Lens monitoring, BlackRock has transferred 566.88 BTC (≈$39.64M) and 7,552 ETH (≈$15.52M) to Coinbase just 20 minutes ago, with potential for additional deposits.

On March 12, wallet provider Exodus Movement, Inc. reported a full-year net loss of $11.4 million for 2025—down from a net profit of $113 million in 2024, per official sources. Despite posting record annual revenue of $1.216 billion (a 5% year-over-year increase), the company ended the year in the red. The revenue milestone was driven by growth in its enterprise-to-enterprise product, XO Swap. Exodus noted its full-year swap trading volume rose 21% to $68.9 billion, accounting for 19% of its fourth-quarter revenue. Key drivers of the loss included a $18.9 million net loss on digital assets in 2025—compared to a $96.1 million profit from digital assets in 2024. Operating expenses also jumped sharply: technology, development, and user support costs rose 37% to $62.9 million, while general and administrative (G&A) expenses surged 68% to $66.3 million. The cryptocurrency market downturn weighed on Q4 performance: revenue fell 34% from $44.8 million in Q4 2024 to $29.5 million in Q

On March 12, GoPlus published a social media report detailing a full security scan of the top 100 high-frequency download Skills in the ClawHub ecosystem. The scan found 21 (21%) of the Skills were blocked, while 17 (17%) were flagged as requiring a warning. GoPlus emphasized that the 21% of blocked Skills involve clear high-risk operations—including direct network penetration, sensitive API calls, and automated messaging. For these, the firm recommends mandatory implementation of a Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) human confirmation mechanism to manually review risky behaviors before execution. The 17% of warned Skills carry moderate risks; users are advised to exercise caution when running them. For those with high security requirements, manual confirmation is also recommended.

March 12th: Iran claimed to have attacked a U.S. oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, per market reports (FXStreet).

March 12: Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been instructed to prepare for an expanded operation in Lebanon. (Forex)

**March 12: U.S. Labor Department to Release Initial Jobless Claims Data** The report, covering the week ended March 7, will be published at 7:30 AM U.S. Eastern Time (8:30 PM Beijing Time tonight) and may trigger market volatility. ### Notes on American English Adaptation: 1. **Time Localization**: Swapped Beijing Time for **U.S. Eastern Time** (EST/EDT) — the standard reference for U.S. economic data releases (aligns with Wall Street’s trading hours). 2. **Conciseness**: Used "Labor Department" (common shorthand for "Department of Labor") and dropped redundant articles for brevity (typical of news alerts). 3. **Vocabulary**: "Trigger" (vs. "cause") and "spark" (alternate option) are more active, newsworthy verbs for market impact. 4. **Structure**: Led with the key event first, then context (data period, time, impact) — matches U.S. media’s priority for actionable information. If you prefer to keep Beijing Time as the primary time (per original context but note U.S. time