Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

On January 29, CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu noted Bitcoin’s “Supply in Loss (%)” metric is starting to climb again. Historical data shows this shift signals the early stages of a bear market: losses are now spreading beyond short-term holders to gradually impact long-term participants. In prior cycles (2014, 2018, 2022), the metric began rising before markets bottomed, while prices continued to weaken. A true bottom only formed after “Supply in Loss (%)” expanded significantly. Currently, the metric remains well below historical surrender levels—but the directional shift itself is notable. This suggests the market may be transitioning to a bear market structure, not just a temporary pullback in a bull trend.

On January 29, Sei published its Third Season Airdrop Eligibility Guide, noting that airdrop eligibility typically hinges on user activity including asset swaps, lending, liquidity provision, NFT transactions, cross-chain activities, asset holdings at the snapshot time, and participation in governance voting. The guide advises users to engage consistently with various apps, maintain a healthy wallet interaction history, and follow official channels to stay eligible. Users are also reminded to prioritize security—only verify airdrop claim links via official channels, never share mnemonic phrases, and be wary of scams that demand prepaid fees to "unlock" airdrops. In the prior Second Season, roughly 34.43 million SEI tokens were distributed to 44,445 addresses, with a portion of the initial token supply set aside for future community rewards and airdrop plans.

**Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token Rallies 50% Weekly Amid Fundamental Gains, Whale Accumulation** On January 29, Hyperliquid— the flagship on-chain perpetual futures (Perp) DEX project—saw its native token HYPE stage a sustained rebound over the past week. After dipping below $21 to find a floor, HYPE surged steadily, peaking above $34. The token’s weekly gain topped 50%, while its fully diluted valuation (FDV) again exceeded $30 billion, currently standing at $30.19 billion. Against a backdrop of cooling crypto market sentiment, HYPE’s standout performance is driven by three key factors: ### 1. Significant Fundamental Improvements Fueled by the ongoing bull run in U.S. equities and precious metals, Hyperliquid and its Perp DEX ecosystem have posted consistent growth in trading activity. Over the past 24 hours, gold and silver contracts on Hyperliquid ranked among the platform’s top 10 by trading volume. On January 26, open interest on Hyperliquid alone nearly matched the combined

On January 29, Glassnode released its weekly report noting that Bitcoin continues to consolidate around structurally critical on-chain levels, with a delicate balance between holder confidence and marginal demand. Short-term holders’ positions remain weak. As shown in the chart below, the lower bound of the current compression range (–1 standard deviation) sits at $83,400—this is a recent key support level, and a break below it could trigger further price retracement toward the true market value near $80,700. That said, the overall capital flow pattern has stabilized. ETF selling pressure has eased, and spot market positions are showing initial signs of improvement—particularly in offshore markets—indicating a reemergence of buyer interest. Meanwhile, the derivatives market remains restrained: neutral funding rates suggest low market leverage, minimizing price impact from speculative momentum. Options positioning adjustments reinforce this cautious stance. Skew has turned bear

**Binance Futures to Launch BIRB, GWEI Perpetual Contracts on Jan 29** Per an official announcement, Binance Futures will list BIRB and GWEI perpetual contracts on January 29. The schedule (UTC) is as follows: - 05:15: BIRB/USDT perpetual contract (up to 50x leverage) - 05:30: GWEI/USDT perpetual contract (up to 50x leverage)