Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

Elon Musk cited Apple CEO Tim Cook’s remark in a post, noting that “the cost surge driven by AI data center construction is unprecedented in any field across his more than 40 years of experience”, and agreed this is the largest price jump he has ever witnessed. In his reply, Musk stressed that current production of memory chips and AI infrastructure is severely insufficient to meet demand, calling for a substantial increase in production capacity to address this supply-demand imbalance.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, Zhipu AI (ZHIPU) has been on a downward trend since hitting a peak of around 17 times its IPO price on May 29. It dropped another 15.22% in the past 24 hours, trading at $256.81, leading declines in the Hyperliquid HIP-3 market. On-chain order books are small, with overall positions leaning bullish: the bullish moving average is around $277.4, while the bearish moving average is around $284.3. The latest bullish liquidation line stands at $223.54, about 13% below the current price. This whale opened a long position on June 26, worth $1.02 million at an average price of $268.58, and is now sitting on an unrealized loss of 24%. On the news front, three recent negative factors have converged: on July 8, cornerstone investors will face lock-up expiry, tripling the free float; the company plans to pursue a secondary listing in Shanghai to raise around 15 billion yuan, stoking dilution concerns; valuation support is weak, with adjusted 2025 revenue showing a huge loss of 3.18 billion yuan. Additionally, peer MiniMax has also plunged sharply, further weighing on sector sentiment.

According to BiyaPay market data, Micron Technology (MU) rallied sharply after its earnings release. On June 25, U.S. stocks closed up 15.7% at $1,213.56, hitting an intraday high of $1,255 to set a new all-time intraday peak. Micron’s latest financial report shows its third fiscal quarter revenue reached $41.46 billion, beating market expectations of around $35.7 billion; adjusted earnings per share came in at $25.11, exceeding the consensus estimate of $20.49. The company also projected fourth fiscal quarter revenue of approximately $50 billion, higher than the market’s forecast of around $43.2 billion. A key focus for the market is that AI demand is expanding from GPUs to storage segments including high-bandwidth memory, DRAM, and NAND. Micron disclosed it has signed 16 long-term supply agreements, which analysts view as an important signal to boost the visibility of its future revenue and profits. Driven by Micron’s earnings, storage-related stocks including SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate rose in tandem. As a global one-stop multi-asset allocation platform, BiyaPay supports investments in diverse markets such as U.S. stocks, Hong Kong-listed equities, and digital assets, and offers zero-commission U.S. stock trading services. Users can track developments of global tech leaders in real time to seize investment opportunities brought by the AI wave.

According to an official announcement, the participation threshold for Binance Cap (CAP) TGE event has been released. Users must reach 225 Alpha points to participate, and 15 points will be deducted upon joining. The event will run today from 18:00 to 20:00.

Lenovo issued a warning at the ISC 2026 conference today that DRAM and NAND flash prices have entered a structural upward cycle. Even as major manufacturers continue expanding production, prices will hardly fall back to their early 2025 levels, and the price increase will eventually become the "new normal" for 2030 and beyond. During its conference presentation, Lenovo showcased price trend charts for DRAM and NAND products. According to its analysis, although leading memory makers including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are accelerating new capacity expansion, the expansion will not be enough to bridge the supply-demand gap, leading to an expected long-term high price environment. Meanwhile, Micron has publicly stated it cannot meet market demand—including that of strategic clients—with Samsung and SK Hynix issuing similar signals. The tight supply situation will not ease in the short term, and this assessment has far-reaching implications for the entire consumer electronics industry chain. Lenovo warned that high memory costs will trickle down to PCs, gaming consoles, smartphones, and all end products equipped with memory or solid-state drives, meaning consumers will face sustained upward pressure on device prices over the next decade. Based on data Lenovo presented at the ISC 2026 conference, the current rapid surge in memory prices began in late Q3 to early Q4 2025. At that time, DRAM and NAND prices broke away from their previous cyclical fluctuation range and accelerated upward to levels widely unexpected by the market.

Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that it is not yet possible to confirm Bitcoin has reached the bottom of its current cycle. Based on his analysis of log-scale charts, Bitcoin’s current price does not appear close to the bottom region following traditional cycle patterns. He added that as prices approach investors’ cost bases, the risk-reward ratio typically improves significantly; in all past major cycles, Bitcoin’s price has touched its realized price. If this cycle fails to see this, it could signal a different market structure from previous ones.