Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

April 12 U.S.-Iran negotiations will continue, with sources noting U.S. official Sullivan’s departure was merely a show of strength. Iranian Parliament Speaker stated the Iranian delegation put forward a forward-looking proposal, but the U.S. side failed to earn the Iranian delegation’s trust in this round. The U.S. has understood Iran’s logic and principles—now it is up to the U.S. to decide whether it can gain Iran’s trust. Earlier today, U.S.-Iran talks concluded without an agreement. Post-negotiations, Sullivan left Pakistan; the Iranian delegation will depart on April 12. Details (timing, location, plans) for the next round of talks have not been announced.

On April 12, Robinhood is taking a cautious stance as its prediction market business expands rapidly. UK CEO Jordan Sinclair noted that amid heightened concerns over "market manipulation and insider trading," Robinhood has explicitly excluded certain prediction market contracts—most notably "referendum markets." These contracts let traders wager on the exact wording of specific speeches or briefings, which Robinhood says carries manipulation risks and isn’t in clients’ best interests. Sinclair stressed that unlike some unregulated platforms or those offering non-compliant contracts, Robinhood only offers appropriate, regulated event contracts. Recent incidents have amplified industry worries about insider trading in prediction markets. For instance, unusually precise large wagers were placed on the Polymarket platform ahead of U.S. military action against Iran, and an individual in Israel was sued for using classified information to wager on military developments on Polymarket. T

April 12 – CITIC Securities released an analysis of U.S.-Iran negotiations, outlining key demands from both sides and low odds of extreme conflict escalation. ### U.S. Core Demands Trump’s top priority would be Iran abandoning uranium enrichment—this would be a critical win for the U.S. and a key political asset to bolster his domestic standing. The current conflict has hurt his midterm election prospects, pushing him to wrap up early. Since the Iranian Revolution, the U.S. has lost control over Iran’s nuclear program—a unresolved challenge for past presidents that’s undermined U.S. Middle East strategy. Compared to the political messaging impact of Iran abandoning enrichment, the indirect link between oil prices and inflation is a smaller election factor. Thus, the Trump administration may compromise on issues like oversight of the Strait of Hormuz. ### Iran’s Core Demands The conflict has underscored that blocking the Strait of Hormuz and threatening Middle East infrastruct

April 12 — X Product Lead Nikita Bier announced in a post today that all aggregator accounts will have their revenue share cut to 60% in this round of creator payouts. A further 20% reduction is scheduled for the next period. The platform attributes the change to a distinct trend: countless accounts flood timelines daily with plagiarized content reposts and clickbait, squeezing out exposure for genuine creators and stifling growth for emerging talent. Going forward, X plans to permanently deduct revenue from accounts that consistently use "BREAKING" and other clickbait tags to drive traffic. Notably, the company will not restrict speech or distribution scope—but it will withhold revenue compensation for accounts that manipulate distribution mechanisms or engage in user deception.

On April 12, TRU surged over 90% in a single day, last trading at $0.0119, according to HTX market data. Separately, Coinglass figures show total TRU contract positions across all exchanges have risen to $14.99 million—up 209% in 24 hours—indicating strong bullish momentum in derivative trading for the token. BlockBeats notes that prices of related tokens are highly volatile, and investors should exercise caution.

April 12 – Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported Thursday that Iranian Islamic Parliament Vice Speaker Hajibabaie has warned the U.S. the Strait of Hormuz is a “red line” fully controlled by Iran, and transit fees for the waterway must be paid in rials. The report added that a majority of Iranian parliament members support the related plan, and per leadership directives, control of the strategic waterway is non-negotiable under any circumstances. (Xinhua)