Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

On May 2, AI project SKYAI skyrocketed 1687% on its first day of spot trading on Bitget—following its April 30 debut. Within three days, its market cap peaked at $417 million, with total spot trading volume hitting $240 million and contract trading volume reaching $630 million, underscoring a strong listing effect. SKYAI is currently trading at $0.388, and trading activity remains robust.

Berkshire Hathaway’s first shareholder meeting of the post-Buffett era kicked off at 8:00 PM UTC+8 tonight (May 2). This marks the first “Investment Oscars” hosted by new CEO Greg Abel since 95-year-old Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO and Abel officially took the reins. Titled “The Legacy Continues,” the meeting features Abel, insurance chief Ajit Jain, and subsidiary executives Katie Farmer and Adam Johnson fielding shareholder questions. Discussion centers on the company’s capital allocation, stock buybacks, tech holdings strategy, and future growth path. While Buffett remains present as non-executive chairman, the spotlight has shifted to 63-year-old Abel—signaling Berkshire’s formal entry into the post-Buffett era.

On May 2, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) General Civil Aviation Authority announced that airspace capacity across the country has returned to normal, and it has lifted previously imposed precautionary measures. The authority confirmed the decision followed a comprehensive assessment of operational and safety conditions—coordinated with all relevant stakeholders—while emphasizing ongoing real-time monitoring to uphold the highest standards of aviation safety.

May 2 – Iran’s Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi said Wednesday that Iran does not shy away from negotiations with the United States but strongly rejects U.S. coercion. He noted negotiations are reasonable and logical, but they do not mean accepting U.S. dictates—nor can Iran tolerate the U.S. imposing its will through threats. At the same time, Iran does not seek war and hopes no conflict breaks out. (CCTV International News)

**May 2 –** Nick Timiraos, often dubbed the “Fed’s Mouthpiece,” reported that the Federal Reserve’s internal debate over its interest rate path has hit a critical turning point. Officials are no longer arguing about when to resume rate cuts—instead, they’re now discussing the conditions that could justify a rate hike. In the statement from Wednesday’s policy meeting, three regional Fed presidents (Dallas, Cleveland, Minneapolis) dissented, formally opposing the retention of language suggesting “the next move is more likely to be a rate cut.” Outgoing Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the committee held a “lively discussion,” noting procedural reasons kept the guidance in place for now—but emphasized the panel’s stance is shifting from dovish to neutral. He added the dissenters’ arguments “completely hold water.” The shift is driven by a sustained energy shock tied to major closures in the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike past one-off price swings that faded on their own, this supply di

**May 2 – Sources report seven OPEC+ members have reached a preliminary agreement to boost June oil production by ~188,000 barrels per day (bpd), even as the UAE exited the group. The increase aligns closely with last month’s 206,000 bpd figure (after excluding the UAE’s share), signaling OPEC+ is sticking to its usual decision-making framework. The seven countries plan an online meeting this Sunday.** Currently, US-Iran tensions have disrupted most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, hitting OPEC producers harder than the group’s agreed output targets. As a result, the latest production hike is largely symbolic. The UAE previously announced an unexpected withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. Per PolyBeats monitoring, prediction market Polymarket shows: - 75% chance WTI crude closes at $110/bbl on any single day this month; - 45% chance for $120/bbl; - 22% chance for $130/bbl. Markets still anticipate a sharp oil price surge.