Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

June 10 – Market data shows broad declines in put options held by Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 25-year-old Wall Street "AI Stock Guru," at his fund Situational Awareness LP. Specific asset declines include: VanEck Semiconductor Industry ETF (SMH) down 6.79%, NVIDIA (NVDA) down 2.77%, Oracle (ORCL) down 4.77%, Broadcom (AVGO) down 4.6%, AMD down 7.9%, Micron (MU) down 6.9%, Taiwan Semiconductor (traded on trade.xyz) down 5%, ASML (ASML) down 1.9%, and Intel (INTC) down 6.99%. BlockBeats previously reported that Situational Awareness LP’s Q1 13-F filing with the SEC revealed a sharp rise in downside protection or bearish bets on AI and semiconductor-linked assets—particularly NVIDIA, VanEck Semiconductor ETF, Broadcom, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, and Micron. The Q1 put options were valued at roughly $8.459 billion, making up about 61.9% of the fund’s total Q1 13F filing value. In comparison, the fund’s Q4 2025 put options only amounted to approximately $8.91 million.

June 10 – Data from Bitget’s market platform shows that the stock picks recommended by Serenity, known as the "White-Haired Stock God," have suffered a sharp selloff. The portfolio’s top heavyweight holding SIVE slumped 14.4% in the rout, while other names on the list also posted steep losses: AXTI dropped 15.2%, AEHR fell 10%, AAOI plummeted 17%, HPS.A declined 6.7%, SOI slid 10.4%, NVTS retreated 13.8%, and NBIS edged down 6.5%.

On June 10, Bitget market data reported that the S&P 500 plunged more than 2%. Top tech stocks dropped broadly, with notable declines across the group: Nvidia (NVDA) fell 3.84%, Tesla (TSLA) dropped 5.71%, Apple (AAPL) was down 4.41%, Alphabet (GOOG) declined 1.4%, AMD slid 10.1%, Marvell Technology (MRVL) dropped 14.9%, Micron Technology (MU) fell 9.5%, Intel (INTC) declined 9.5%, Microsoft (MSFT) was down 3%, and Oracle (ORCL) slid 5.9%.

June 10: Anthropic has released Claude Fable 5, the first universal large model in its Claude 5 series, for public use. This new model shares the same underlying architecture as Claude Mythos 5 — which is restricted exclusively to controlled entities — but adds extra security safeguards for dual-use capabilities. Compared to the existing Claude series, Claude Fable 5 performs better on complex tasks such as long-context processing and multi-turn dialogues. Click the link to the original article to join BlockBeats’ Feishu AI News Channel for 24/7 monitoring of global AI trends and news.

June 10 — Bitget market data shows that holdings of Situational Awareness LP (SALP), run by 25-year-old Wall Street AI investing prodigy Leopold Aschenbrenner, posted broad declines per the firm’s Q1 13-F filing. Individual stock declines include BE down 3.82%, SNDK down 5.24%, CRWV down 7.76%, IREN down 12.84%, CORZ down 6.32%, APLD down 5.65%, RIOT down 6.5%, and CLSK down 7.87%. SALP founder Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 25-year-old (born 2001/2002) German investment prodigy, previously worked at FTX Future Fund. In 2023, he joined OpenAI as a researcher but was fired in 2024 over alleged misconduct and refusal to cooperate with an investigation. In June 2024, he released a viral 165-page paper titled “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” outlining the imminent timeline and strategic importance of AGI. Following this, he launched his eponymous investment firm Situational Awareness LP, which focuses heavily on AI infrastructure—including power supply, data center computing power, se

June 10th, Herman Jin (@ShanghaoJin), a KOL covering the US stock market, responded to the claim that "only Intel’s (INTC) EMIB packaging technology can truly achieve Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), while TSMC’s CoWoS technology cannot." Jin commented, "Currently, CPO faces severe capacity bottlenecks and widespread yield issues. Let’s stay level-headed for now and avoid being overly optimistic."