Lookonchain APP

App Store

Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

2025.04.18 15:48:23

On April 18th, Adam Posen, who has held positions in the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, stated in a speech this week, "We may be on the verge of a recession or we might not. Nevertheless, in either case, we will be confronted with inflation." Posen, currently serving as the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wields significant influence. He believes that there is a 65% probability of a recession. Regarding the Fed, Posen thinks that given the still relatively high level of inflation, it has cut interest rates too vigorously. Once prices start to rise again, the Fed may not be able to keep pace with the changes. As a consequence, the Fed may be compelled to raise interest rates rapidly and significantly, thereby placing additional stress on the economy. If all these scenarios were to come to pass, Posen said that repairing this damage could take several years or even longer. (FXStreet)
Relevant content

Sources: An explosion has occurred in Saudi Arabia's Jizan region.

According to Iranian media outlet Fars News, Arab sources said an explosion occurred in the Jizan region of Saudi Arabia.

3 hours ago

Iran and the United States are exchanging views on negotiation plans and terms via mediators.

According to Saudi media outlet Al-Hadath, Iran and the United States are exchanging views on negotiation plans and terms via intermediaries. Iran has proposed new conditions to the U.S. for resuming talks, and stated that there is no need to withdraw from the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the U.S.

3 hours ago

Intel's gains widened to 10%

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), Intel (INTC.O) extended its gain to 10%.

3 hours ago

The "Big Short" Michael Burry’s latest portfolio adjustment: Lululemon has become his largest holding, with short positions accounting for over 21%.

Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for *The Big Short*, disclosed his latest portfolio adjustments via his Substack account today, stating that his largest long position is Lululemon, accounting for 17.4% of his portfolio, followed by MercadoLibre at 12%. The second tier includes Molina Healthcare and Temple & Webster, each making up 9%. Additionally, Burry holds long positions in Adobe, Zoetis, JD.com, HCA Healthcare, Flutter, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Sprouts, PayPal, Veeva, Birkenstock, Build-A-Bear, and NVIDIA, with NVIDIA also used as a hedge. On the short side, Burry’s current short positions, ordered by size from largest to smallest, are iShares Semiconductor ETF, Micron, Nebius, CoreWeave, Oracle, Palantir, NVIDIA, Caterpillar, and Invesco QQQ Trust. Among these, his Invesco QQQ put option positions account for roughly 6% of his portfolio. Overall, his short positions make up over 21% of his portfolio, a figure that does not include put option positions, indicating he remains betting on valuation pressure for certain tech and AI-related assets. Furthermore, Burry has fully closed out his short positions in Tesla and Applied Materials, exiting both trades at a profit; he also sold all his SOXX put options and converted those positions into larger QQQ put options. Following the latest adjustments, Lululemon rose to his largest position after an increase, while his overall portfolio remains sharply split: bullish on select consumer and healthcare stocks, and bearish on certain tech and AI assets.

3 hours ago

US Treasury Secretary: US Treasury bond repurchases aim to calm market "frenzy"

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month’s expansion of the U.S. Treasury’s repurchase program was aimed at calming the "frenzy" building in the bond market and pushing prices back to equilibrium. Bessent noted that while he cannot alter the market’s equilibrium price, he hopes to curb excessive speculation. He added that if investors were truly concerned about U.S. debt credit, they would sell U.S. Treasuries and buy German bunds, though current market behavior does not reflect such concerns. Bessent denied that the Treasury’s repurchase of Treasuries is equivalent to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, explaining the measure is more similar to the Fed’s past "Operation Twist". The program’s expansion comes against the backdrop of the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2007.

3 hours ago

Strategy has launched Bitcoin-themed Air Jordan 1 sneakers, priced at $250.

Strategy has launched a Bitcoin-themed Air Jordan 1 sneaker priced at $250, but its official website only supports bank cards and Apple Pay at checkout, not Bitcoin payments. Air Jordan is a high-end sports and lifestyle brand under Nike, founded in 1984 and named after NBA legend Michael Jordan, specializing in basketball shoes and sportswear. Previous reports noted that Strategy did not increase its Bitcoin holdings last week. As of September 7, 2026, Strategy holds 845,050 BTC.

3 hours ago

Popular tokens

BitcoinEthereumHyperliquidSolanaTRONBNBTetherAaveXRPPepeFartcoinOndoJupiterUniswapBonkPendleEthenaArbitrumAvalancheLidoChainlinkPolygonDogecoinCardano