Lookonchain APP

App Store

Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

2025.04.18 15:48:23

On April 18th, Adam Posen, who has held positions in the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, stated in a speech this week, "We may be on the verge of a recession or we might not. Nevertheless, in either case, we will be confronted with inflation." Posen, currently serving as the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wields significant influence. He believes that there is a 65% probability of a recession. Regarding the Fed, Posen thinks that given the still relatively high level of inflation, it has cut interest rates too vigorously. Once prices start to rise again, the Fed may not be able to keep pace with the changes. As a consequence, the Fed may be compelled to raise interest rates rapidly and significantly, thereby placing additional stress on the economy. If all these scenarios were to come to pass, Posen said that repairing this damage could take several years or even longer. (FXStreet)
Relevant content

Analysis: Bitcoin Unrealized Supply Distribution Slope Increase May Signal Early Bear Market

On January 29, CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu noted Bitcoin’s “Supply in Loss (%)” metric is starting to climb again. Historical data shows this shift signals the early stages of a bear market: losses are now spreading beyond short-term holders to gradually impact long-term participants. In prior cycles (2014, 2018, 2022), the metric began rising before markets bottomed, while prices continued to weaken. A true bottom only formed after “Supply in Loss (%)” expanded significantly. Currently, the metric remains well below historical surrender levels—but the directional shift itself is notable. This suggests the market may be transitioning to a bear market structure, not just a temporary pullback in a bull trend.

14 minutes ago

Sei Releases Season 3 Airdrop Eligibility Guide

On January 29, Sei published its Third Season Airdrop Eligibility Guide, noting that airdrop eligibility typically hinges on user activity including asset swaps, lending, liquidity provision, NFT transactions, cross-chain activities, asset holdings at the snapshot time, and participation in governance voting. The guide advises users to engage consistently with various apps, maintain a healthy wallet interaction history, and follow official channels to stay eligible. Users are also reminded to prioritize security—only verify airdrop claim links via official channels, never share mnemonic phrases, and be wary of scams that demand prepaid fees to "unlock" airdrops. In the prior Second Season, roughly 34.43 million SEI tokens were distributed to 44,445 addresses, with a portion of the initial token supply set aside for future community rewards and airdrop plans.

14 minutes ago

Fundamental Uplift First, Whale Accumulation Intensification Adds Bullish Stimulus, Propelling HYPE Up 50% in One Week

**Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token Rallies 50% Weekly Amid Fundamental Gains, Whale Accumulation** On January 29, Hyperliquid— the flagship on-chain perpetual futures (Perp) DEX project—saw its native token HYPE stage a sustained rebound over the past week. After dipping below $21 to find a floor, HYPE surged steadily, peaking above $34. The token’s weekly gain topped 50%, while its fully diluted valuation (FDV) again exceeded $30 billion, currently standing at $30.19 billion. Against a backdrop of cooling crypto market sentiment, HYPE’s standout performance is driven by three key factors: ### 1. Significant Fundamental Improvements Fueled by the ongoing bull run in U.S. equities and precious metals, Hyperliquid and its Perp DEX ecosystem have posted consistent growth in trading activity. Over the past 24 hours, gold and silver contracts on Hyperliquid ranked among the platform’s top 10 by trading volume. On January 26, open interest on Hyperliquid alone nearly matched the combined

14 minutes ago

glassnode: Bitcoin's short-term support is at $83.4k, spot and ETF demand recovery is key to stabilization

On January 29, Glassnode released its weekly report noting that Bitcoin continues to consolidate around structurally critical on-chain levels, with a delicate balance between holder confidence and marginal demand. Short-term holders’ positions remain weak. As shown in the chart below, the lower bound of the current compression range (–1 standard deviation) sits at $83,400—this is a recent key support level, and a break below it could trigger further price retracement toward the true market value near $80,700. That said, the overall capital flow pattern has stabilized. ETF selling pressure has eased, and spot market positions are showing initial signs of improvement—particularly in offshore markets—indicating a reemergence of buyer interest. Meanwhile, the derivatives market remains restrained: neutral funding rates suggest low market leverage, minimizing price impact from speculative momentum. Options positioning adjustments reinforce this cautious stance. Skew has turned bear

14 minutes ago

Binance Futures will list BIRB and GWEI trading pairs

**Binance Futures to Launch BIRB, GWEI Perpetual Contracts on Jan 29** Per an official announcement, Binance Futures will list BIRB and GWEI perpetual contracts on January 29. The schedule (UTC) is as follows: - 05:15: BIRB/USDT perpetual contract (up to 50x leverage) - 05:30: GWEI/USDT perpetual contract (up to 50x leverage)

14 minutes ago

Precious Metals Stay Hot, Gold and Silver Contract on Hyperliquid Surpasses $1.5 Billion in 24-hour Trading Volume

14 minutes ago