Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

April 2nd — Bitcoin trades at $66,450 as of press time, 47% below its $126,000 all-time high set in October 2025, leaving HODLers facing steep unrealized losses. Per Glassnode data, ~8.8 million BTC are currently in a loss position, translating to ~$598.7 billion in unrealized losses—over 44% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The firm notes this loss scale is structurally similar to Q2 2022: “Historically, resolving this level of supply excess requires loss-making holders to shift BTC to new buyers entering at lower prices.” Long-term holders (holding >155 days) are realizing $200 million in losses daily—Glassnode calls this “confirmation of active stop-loss selling.” A meaningful drop below $25 million/day would signal selling pressure exhaustion, a historical prerequisite for a bottom preceding a bull market transition, the firm adds. Bitcoin’s spot price also sits below the $83,408 average cost basis for U.S. spot ETF holders, ramping up pressure on these investors. As of th

On April 2nd, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) launched a regulatory pilot program for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs). The first group of participating institutions includes several regional fintech and digital asset firms, with KuCoin as the only global exchange platform selected. The pilot focuses on Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and Combating Proliferation Financing (CPF) compliance—aiming to strengthen the digital asset industry’s risk management and regulatory capabilities. Participating entities must engage in structured regulatory communication and submit regular compliance data. KuCoin CEO BC Wong noted that constructive regulatory dialogue is a critical foundation for the long-term sustainable growth of the digital asset sector. The company will continue to deepen communication and collaboration with global regulators to enhance transparency and risk management capabilities. Market observers generally see this selec

April 2 — Per LookOnChain data, Bitcoin mining firm Riot Blockchain has once again transferred 500 BTC (valued at $33.26 million), with the move suspected to be a precursor to a sale.

On April 2, Coinbase announced it received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish Coinbase National Trust. This follows years of prioritizing compliance, collaborating with regulators, and upholding the belief that the crypto industry’s proper growth path lies within regulatory frameworks—not outside them.

On April 2, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a lawsuit against Illinois, its governor, and its attorney general. The suit alleges the state and officials attempted to regulate prediction markets beyond their authority, rendering the related actions invalid.

On April 2, Argus Media data shows Iranian crude oil traded at a premium to global benchmark Brent for the first time since May 2022—following the U.S. temporarily relaxing some Iran oil sanctions. As of March 26, Iran’s main export crude was priced at roughly $1 per barrel above Brent; earlier this year, under full sanctions, it had traded at a $10-per-barrel discount. This shift signals Tehran is capitalizing on its control of the Strait of Hormuz. With Brent holding around $107 per barrel and global supplies tight, buyers are willing to pay a premium for still-available Iranian oil. By blocking access for Gulf oil producers while allowing its own cargoes to transit, Iran has created a transport bottleneck—pushing up global oil prices and lifting the relative value of its light crude. Tanker tracking data confirms Iran-linked vessels continue transiting the strategic waterway and offloading from floating storage facilities.