Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

March 30 — Sources said the U.S. Treasury Department plans to hold a series of meetings with domestic and international insurance regulators in the coming weeks to discuss recent developments in the private credit market.

March 30: The U.S.-Iran conflict has persisted for a month, with the coming week set to bring ongoing uncertainties and potential black swan events. Every small development—whether in peace talks or escalating tensions—will test the market’s already frayed nerves. Beyond geopolitical risks, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve will outline their interest rate hike outlooks, while U.S. nonfarm payrolls data will heavily influence market liquidity expectations. Below is the key schedule (Beijing Time, BJT): - **Monday, 07:50 BJT**: BOJ releases summary of opinions from its March monetary policy meeting - **Tuesday, 04:00 BJT**: New York Fed President John Williams delivers a speech - **Wednesday, 00:00 BJT**: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans gives opening remarks at a bank-hosted event - **Wednesday, 23:00 BJT**: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (2026 FOMC voter) speaks - **Thursday, 20:30 BJT**: U.S. initial jobless claims (Mar 28 week) + February trade balance

On March 30, Onchain Lens monitoring data shows a whale has reinvested $10 million to repurchase 5,039 ETH. As of now, the whale holds a total of 138,234 ETH (roughly $273.98 million) and has outstanding loans of approximately $142.3 million.

On March 30, Bitcoin saw a short-term rebound, surpassing $67k, according to HTX market data. As of press time, it’s trading at $66,935, with a 24-hour gain of 0.78%.

**March 30th** Per the Financial Times, U.S. President Trump—despite threatening to seize Iran’s oil production rights—also noted indirect talks with Iran via a Pakistani “envoy” are progressing smoothly. When asked if a ceasefire deal could be reached in the coming days and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, Trump declined to provide specific details. He stated: “We still have about 3,000 targets left to bomb—13,000 have been hit so far—and thousands more to strike. A deal is expected soon.” Last week, Trump said Iran allowed 10 Pakistani-flagged oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it “a gift to the White House.” He added the number has now risen to 20, with the first batch already en route and “steaming right through the middle of the strait.” He also claimed Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf personally authorized the tankers’ passage.

On March 30th, blockchain analytics firm Onchain Lens reported that amid a sudden plunge in the cryptocurrency market, the address linked to crypto whale "Whale Brother" (Li Cheng Huang) was partially liquidated. Consistent with his past moves, he subsequently added to his position again. As of now, the total loss on the address has widened to $31.3 million.