Lookonchain APP

App Store

Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

2025.04.18 15:48:23

On April 18th, Adam Posen, who has held positions in the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, stated in a speech this week, "We may be on the verge of a recession or we might not. Nevertheless, in either case, we will be confronted with inflation." Posen, currently serving as the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wields significant influence. He believes that there is a 65% probability of a recession. Regarding the Fed, Posen thinks that given the still relatively high level of inflation, it has cut interest rates too vigorously. Once prices start to rise again, the Fed may not be able to keep pace with the changes. As a consequence, the Fed may be compelled to raise interest rates rapidly and significantly, thereby placing additional stress on the economy. If all these scenarios were to come to pass, Posen said that repairing this damage could take several years or even longer. (FXStreet)
Relevant content

A $200 amateur mining rig successfully mined a block, earning its solo miner approximately $200,000 in rewards.

An individual Bitcoin miner has successfully mined Bitcoin’s 957382nd block independently using a Bitaxe mining rig priced at under $200, earning a 3.125 BTC block reward valued at roughly $200,000 based on current prices. The rig has a hash rate of around 1 TH/s, accounting for only a tiny portion of the global Bitcoin network’s total hash rate. Mining pool Public Pool noted that this is an extremely low-probability independent mining success, demonstrating that low-cost mining hardware still has the potential to secure full block rewards. Data shows this marks the 12th Bitcoin block mined independently by individual miners since 2026. Over the past 12 months, 24 blocks have been mined independently by individual miners, a 41% year-on-year increase, with cumulative rewards totaling 75.4 BTC, worth approximately $4.7 million.

16 minutes ago

DeepSeek has just concluded its first round of financing and is already in talks for a new round at a $71 billion valuation.

The Financial Times has cited sources familiar with the matter as saying that DeepSeek has begun approaching new investors and is considering launching a second round of financing. The company is targeting a pre-money valuation of around $71 billion. The plan is still in early discussions, and DeepSeek has not yet responded to requests for comment. DeepSeek completed its first round of financing at the end of May, raising approximately $7 billion, with a post-money valuation of around $52 billion. Founder Liang Wenfeng personally invested about $3 billion. Investors in the round include Tencent, CATL, JD.com, and NetEase, among others. The new funds will be used to build its own data centers, purchase AI chips, and expand its team. The company is ramping up efforts in AI Agents, leading to rising computing power demands.

16 minutes ago

Analyst: Bitcoin’s stochastic RSI hitting zero over two months may signal the end of this bear market.

Trader Max Crypto stated that Bitcoin’s two-month Stochastic RSI has historically confirmed market bottoms during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets, when the indicator saw a bullish crossover and retreated to 0. He predicts this pattern "will repeat in 2026." TradingView data shows Bitcoin’s two-month Stochastic RSI currently stands at 4.81, after falling into the oversold zone (below 30) in March this year—its lowest level in over three years. Separately, multiple analysts are continuing to track bullish signals from the traditional RSI indicator. Trader BitcoinHyper pointed out that Bitcoin’s daily RSI has formed a bullish divergence with the S&P 500 index; Trader Osemka noted that Bitcoin’s daily RSI dipped to 15 in early June, an extremely rare oversold level historically, matching the performance near previous bear market bottoms, though a deeper pullback before finalizing its bottom formation remains possible.

16 minutes ago

KeyBanc raises price targets for multiple AI chip stocks, lifting Arm’s price target to $430.

Investment bank KeyBanc released a new research report, raising the target prices of multiple AI chip-related companies. Specifically, it lifted Micron Technology (MU)’s target price from $1,600 to $1,750; sharply hiked Arm (ARM)’s target price from $300 to $430; and raised NVIDIA (NVDA)’s target price from $310 to $330.

16 minutes ago

US optical communication sector rebounds in pre-market trading, Corning rises over 4%

According to Bit.com market data, the U.S. optical communication sector has seen a pre-market rebound, with MRVL up 2.56%, LITE rising 3.35%, Nokia gaining 1.28%, Corning increasing 4.01%, and AXTI climbing 4.54%.

16 minutes ago

South Korea has positioned AI as the core direction for its economic development in the second half of the year, and is accelerating pilot programs for central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and tokenization of government bonds.

South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance announced that it will continue advancing the development of blockchain and digital asset economy in the second half of 2026, with key priorities including promoting the legislation of the Digital Assets Basic Act, pushing forward a trial project for tokenized government bonds linked to institutional central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and researching interoperability between CBDCs and other blockchain networks. Additionally, the South Korean government plans to establish a legal framework for cross-border stablecoin transactions, push for amendments to the Capital Markets Act to provide a legal basis for the launch of South Korea's first spot crypto ETFs, and explore using blockchain for the management and trading of carbon credits in the Global Voluntary Carbon Market (GVCM). Meanwhile, the South Korean government has positioned AI as a core direction for economic development in the second half of the year, designating physical AI, AI data centers, and semiconductors as three major "Mega Projects". It plans to invest around 800 trillion won to build a new semiconductor production base and double its storage chip production capacity over the next five years.

16 minutes ago