Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

The Clarity Act, which would establish a regulatory framework for the digital asset industry, is facing a critical legislative window. U.S. bipartisan negotiations have yet to reach consensus on key issues including government officials’ ethics rules and illegal finance. If the bill fails to advance before the August congressional recess, there will be almost no legislative window before the midterm elections, potentially sending the legislative process back to square one. Currently, Republican leadership aims to push for consideration during the week of July 20, but it needs at least seven Democratic senators’ support to pass.

A miner using a Bitaxe ASIC miner with just a single chip and a hash rate of approximately 1 TH/s successfully mined Bitcoin block 957,382 yesterday, claiming the full block reward of 3.1382 BTC worth roughly $200,000. The device was operated without overclocking, mining via the zero-fee Public Pool, retaining 100% of the block subsidy and transaction fees. Its valid share difficulty hit 294.14T, more than double the 133.87T required to solve the block. Estimated at a 1 TH/s hash rate, it would take an average of around 16,000 years to mine one block. This event is extremely rare, yet the miner’s daily odds of winning are still about 53 times higher than winning the lottery.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back and Strategy founder Michael Saylor have both published statements opposing the BIP 110 proposal. Adam Back stated that BIP 110 essentially attempts to constrain others’ behavior via consensus-layer measures, which contradicts Bitcoin’s core attributes of decentralization and permissionlessness. Bitcoin’s technical consensus mechanism is itself an efficient immune system; any change not rigorously vetted by hundreds of developers cannot pass. He called on BIP 110 supporters to deeply understand Bitcoin’s operational logic rather than initiating a separate fork. In contrast, Michael Saylor noted that BIP 110 elevates a spam debate to a consensus change that could invalidate some currently valid transactions, and this precedent itself is the real risk. BIP 110 is a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) designed to modify the default relay policy to filter or restrict specific types of data embedded in on-chain transactions, such as OP_RETURN outputs. Its supporters argue that this move will help curb the proliferation of on-chain spam.

Per EmberCN’s monitoring, LAB’s whale transferred 10.5 million LAB tokens to Aster last night, worth approximately $9.15 million. Over the past 11 hours, LAB’s price dropped another 37% to $0.56. Cumulative transfers over two days total 18.5 million LAB (about $18.69 million), with the token’s price falling 53% from $1.2 to $0.56. After transferring 8 million LAB (around $9.54 million) the night before last, LAB’s price slid 26% from $1.2 to $0.89; following last night’s additional transfer, the token’s price dropped a further 37%.

US Central Command stated in a social media post that the US military has launched the third strike against Iran within a week. (Jinshi)

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced in the early hours of the 12th that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed effective immediately, with no vessels allowed to pass. Earlier, Iran had stated that foreign powers’ interference in Strait of Hormuz affairs and illegal demarcation of vessel transit routes would prompt Iran to “resolutely respond”. Citing unsafe conditions caused by illegal interference from foreign powers, the Strait of Hormuz is closed effective immediately until further notice and until the U.S. stops interfering in the region. Iran warned that if the U.S. uses this incident as a pretext to launch new attacks on Iran, Iran will respond fiercely by targeting more U.S. bases in the Middle East.