Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

On March 21, Polymarket team member Mustafa announced that a “major announcement” will be made Monday, with specific details still undisclosed.

On March 21, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee announced it will hold a hearing at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) on March 25, focused on **"Tokenization and the Future of Capital Markets."** The session will center on blockchain technology’s applications in the financial system and regulatory direction.

March 21: According to Farside data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $52 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive trading day of net outflows.

March 21 — Per Farside monitoring, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF posted a net outflow of $42 million yesterday, marking its third straight day of net outflows.

March 21 – Escalating Middle East tensions combined with a sharp jump in expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have triggered a systemic shock to global markets. U.S. stocks posted their fourth straight week of losses, marking the longest weekly losing streak in a year. The Nasdaq tumbled more than 2% in a single session, with tech shares under heavy selling pressure. Global bond yields jumped sharply, pushing U.S., U.K., and German government bonds to multi-year peaks and sparking widespread deleveraging. Commodities saw sharp divergence: Gold dropped below the $4,500 level, plunging more than 10% in one week—the biggest weekly decline since 1983—raising questions about its safe-haven credentials. Meanwhile, crude oil surged on Middle East supply concerns: Brent crude topped $110 a barrel, and Dubai crude futures jumped over 16% in a single session. Bitcoin found support near the $70,000 level, outperforming gold for three straight weeks. Market analysts note that geopo

March 21 — Gold prices plummeted sharply on Friday amid rising Middle East tensions and shifting interest rate expectations, notching the biggest weekly drop since 1983. Spot gold fell to around $4,488 per ounce, with a weekly decline of roughly 11% and a total drop of over 15% since late February. Market analysts note the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady this year, while Powell’s comments on elevated inflation have dented gold’s appeal. Meanwhile, amid the Iran conflict, Bitcoin has demonstrated relative strength, surging more than 11% over the period — a stark contrast to gold’s performance.