Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

According to TradingBeats' monitoring, Hyperliquid address 0x4e23 liquidated all 178,800 HYPE long positions in batches this morning, worth approximately $16.45 million, with a loss of around $250,000. After the liquidation, the address only holds roughly 375 spot HYPE and 10,100 staked HYPE for defense, having temporarily removed its leveraged exposure. Currently, it still has buy orders worth about $6.38 million placed at the $87-$89 level, and sell orders totaling around $13.71 million at the $98-$101 level. Previously, the address went long on HYPE last night and exited all positions this morning; both of its recent two attempts to chase the rally ended in losses. The address also previously recovered most of its losses on SPCX US stock trades by repeatedly adjusting its position direction in a similar manner.

Well-known trader Doctor Profit stated that he has increased his Bitcoin short position to $13 million, expecting BTC to undergo a correction targeting $79,000. He will decide on his next moves based on price performance once Bitcoin hits that level, and emphasized that this short position does not reflect a bearish outlook on Bitcoin’s long-term trend. The trader believes Bitcoin’s bear market has ended, and the current pullback is merely a phase adjustment within the ongoing bull run; once the correction concludes, Bitcoin’s bull market will continue.

With Japan’s holiday period drawing to a close, the risk of yen intervention is back in focus. The yen has fallen for two consecutive weeks, bringing it once again near the closely watched 160 level. Strategists believe the 160 level is once again a test of Japan’s tolerance for yen depreciation, as the currency has remained weak since the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) September 18 policy meeting. While the BOJ has accelerated its tightening cycle, internal divisions exist within the committee, while the U.S. appears to be moving toward a more hawkish path. Carol Kong, currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), stated that if U.S. yields continue to rise and markets keep testing Japan’s resolve to defend the yen, USD/JPY could soon break through 160. A rapid break above this level would substantially raise the likelihood of official action, particularly given recent reports that Japan has conducted foreign exchange checks and the precedent of coordinated interventions. (Jinshi)

Financial investment data firm PitchBook’s latest 46-page report has valued prediction market platform Kalshi, projecting a base-case valuation of roughly $30.4 billion, a high-case valuation of up to $42.1 billion, and a bear-case valuation of $22.8 billion. Kalshi closed a $1 billion Series F funding round in May this year, with a post-money valuation of $22 billion. PitchBook forecasts Kalshi’s revenue will hit $6.4 billion by 2030, with adjusted profit reaching $3.7 billion, adding that its partnerships with platforms like Robinhood and Susquehanna, plus market makers, will help solidify its market share. However, regulatory risks in the sports prediction market remain a key variable weighing on Kalshi’s valuation. PitchBook data shows the sports segment currently contributes around 69.9% of Kalshi’s event fee revenue; when including "exotic" products such as multi-event parlays, that share rises to 82.4%. Multiple U.S. states and Native American tribes have filed lawsuits challenging the legality of Kalshi’s sports prediction products, with related cases creating splits among federal appeals courts; the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to take up the matter next year. PitchBook notes that even if the final ruling is unfavorable to Kalshi, the firm could adjust its business model by securing state-level licenses and expanding non-sports prediction products, though a sharp decline in sports revenue would still significantly impact its growth outlook.

Data shows that trader Point Farm Capital has once again topped the 24-hour profit leaderboard on the FOMO platform. Its current account assets stand at around $17.164 million, with its account page indicating assets grew by approximately $2.088 million in the past 24 hours. STONK remains its primary holding: the account currently holds 39.2 million STONK tokens valued at roughly $14.376 million, accounting for about 84% of total assets. Calculated at a holding return rate of 907.76%, its unrealized profit is around $12.949 million. Additionally, its Christmas Cracker (CRACKER) holding is worth approximately $638,000 with a 283.23% return rate, while its RuneScape Gold (GP) holding is valued at around $516,000 with a 202.35% return rate.

According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) CEO Vladimir Tenev sold 259,166 of the company’s shares on September 21, 2026, at an average price of $125.58 per share, totaling approximately $32.55 million. The transaction was executed under the pre-established Rule 10b5-1 plan. Tenev first automatically converted the 259,166 Class B common shares into Class A common shares, then sold all of the converted shares. Following the transaction, his direct holdings of Class A shares fell to zero, while he still holds 6,907 shares indirectly via a Living Trust. The related Form 4 was filed with the SEC on September 23.