Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

Multiple foreign media outlets reported on the 24th that US Secretary of State Rubio said technical teams from the United States and Iran will hold further talks in Switzerland by the end of June. (Xinhua News Agency)

According to Coinglass data, the global cryptocurrency market recorded $606 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, including $542 million in long-position liquidations and $68.22 million in short-position liquidations. A total of 135,785 traders worldwide were liquidated in the same period, with the largest single liquidation order occurring on Binance’s BTCUSDT trading pair, valued at $12.0111 million.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000, with a 4.3% drop in the past 24 hours.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC in an interview that he hopes the Federal Reserve will remain "open-minded" about the inflation pattern after the reversal of Iran-related energy price hikes. Bessent noted that the U.S. could enter an economic environment marked by high GDP growth without a corresponding rise in traditional inflation. He cited that in the 1990s, Alan Greenspan foresaw that office modernization and the internet could drive non-inflationary growth, and allowed the economy to keep expanding. Bessent believes the U.S. has a strong chance of seeing a similar scenario again. When asked whether the Fed still needs to worry about potential inflation and whether interest rate cuts are possible this year or next, Bessent declined to comment. However, he argued that it is necessary to stay open-minded about the price or inflation impacts from the Iran conflict, and monitor inflation performance after those effects subside. Bessent also said an open mind is needed, as the AI boom could boost productivity and deliver disinflationary effects, helping inflation return to the Fed’s target level. He added that he believes Kevin Warsh will choose the optimal path that meets both the Fed’s inflation and growth mandates. Bessent also noted that Warsh previously took a hawkish stance on inflation.

According to Bitget data, during U.S. stock trading hours, the storage sector saw broad declines: Western Digital (WDC) fell 4.47%, Seagate Technology (STX) dropped 4.17%, SanDisk (SNDK) declined 2.31%, and Micron Technology (MU) edged down 0.96%. Most optical communication concept stocks rose, with Corning (GLW) leading the gains at 9.75%, followed by Ciena (CIEN) up 3.24%, Coherent (COHR) rising 2.93%, Lumentum (LITE) gaining 2.61%, and Nokia (NOK) advancing 1.82%. Additionally, Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 2.59% and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) declined 1.90%.

According to Bitget market data, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose broadly: the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.94%, the S&P 500 increased 0.60%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.63%. Crypto-related stocks fell across the board, with declines as follows: Strategy (MSTR) down 7.33%; Circle (CRCL) down 4.35%; Bitmine (BMNR) down 3.97%; Coinbase (COIN) down 3.73%; Robinhood (HOOD) down 3.70%; Gemini (GEMI) down 3.27%; Bullish (BLSH) down 3.25%; Sharplink (SBET) down 3.19%.