Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

Alibaba announced today that it will place new shares with non-U.S. investors outside the United States, with a total placement value of HK$80 billion. The round of placement has been oversubscribed, with strong demand from high-quality long-term bullish investors including sovereign wealth funds, according to Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily.

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten noted in a recent report that Bitcoin typically rallies several weeks before the formation of the so-called "Golden Cross" technical pattern. Currently, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average (50DMA) and 200-day moving average (200DMA) have both turned upward, bringing the market close to a Golden Cross. In 2022, Bitcoin’s price never broke above the 200DMA, but the current market is forming a new structure. “This seems to be a new market phase,” he said. The Golden Cross is widely viewed by the market as a technical signal of a strengthening medium- to long-term trend, occurring when the short-term 50DMA crosses above the long-term 200DMA. However, this indicator is a lagging metric, used primarily to confirm trend shifts rather than predict short-term price moves. Glassnode data shows Bitcoin has rallied multiple times in its history ahead of the 50DMA crossing above the 200DMA. Notably, BTC has now reclaimed the area around the 200DMA, a stark contrast to the 2022 market cycle.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po published a blog post on the 23rd, noting that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is injecting strong momentum into Hong Kong’s economy and consumer market. The HKSAR government is comprehensively advancing the deployment and widespread application of AI across all sectors. Chan stated that AI development has provided a significant boost to Hong Kong’s economy and financial market. Benefiting from robust global demand for AI-related products, Hong Kong’s exports have posted high double-digit growth for several consecutive quarters. In the capital market, from last December to May this year, AI-related initial public offering (IPO) fundraising in Hong Kong reached nearly HK$100 billion, accounting for around 55% of the total IPO funds raised in the period. The Hang Seng Index Company recently added multiple AI-linked firms to its indices, reflecting their growing importance to the local economy. Research estimates further suggest that if Hong Kong’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can match large enterprises in AI adoption by 2035, the city could unlock up to HK$65 billion in economic benefits. The HKSAR government is also deepening AI integration in its operations: the AI Efficiency Enhancement Team has rolled out the first batch of 30 efficiency improvement projects spanning 13 departments. (Xinhua)

According to Defillama data, Hyperliquid's weekly revenue hit $16.93 million this week, a nearly 196% jump from last week's $5.72 million. Fueled by this week's rebound in the crypto market, demand for perpetual contract trading has risen, driving simultaneous growth in the platform's trading volume and fee revenue. Separately, HTX market data shows Hyperliquid's native token HYPE has rallied over 37% this week, currently trading at $78.66.

Bitcoin has recently rallied to a multi-month high, with Bitfinex analysts noting the current upswing is driven primarily by spot buying and short covering rather than new leveraged funds, giving it longer staying power than a typical short squeeze. As all investors who bought bitcoin over the past five months are currently in unrealized profit, the key risk to the current rally comes from profit-taking flows into trading platforms. Bitfinex identifies the U.S. Treasury’s August 19 announcement to expand its long-term bond repurchase program as a major catalyst for the recent price action. The early stage of this rally was indeed fueled by short liquidations. On the same day, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $297.6 million in inflows. However, subsequent price gains were driven mainly by spot buying. Looking at positioning, while bitcoin prices rose 10% to 11%, open interest (OI) increased by only around 4%, indicating spot demand and short covering are the primary drivers, with leveraged funds playing a limited role. Bitfinex points out that the $68,000–$69,000 range is a key current support level, near the average cost basis of bitcoin buyers over the past five months. Holding above this level will keep those investors in profit, reducing selling pressure from previously trapped positions during rebounds. On the funding front, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day inflow of $606.29 million on August 20, the largest daily inflow since May 1, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for roughly 82% of that total. Bitfinex says if this inflow persists for a week, it will further strengthen the market’s demand structure. However, Bitfinex warns that the biggest current risk is a surge in profit-taking bitcoin flowing into trading platforms, which could trigger the largest sell-off since 2026. Analysts add that if real yields rise back to levels that previously pressured bitcoin below $65,000, macro factors could quickly impact the market.

Keeta co-founder Ty (@schenkty) released a statement on the recent security incident, noting the team has made significant investigative progress and collected evidence to identify the responsible party for the attack. Keeta has obtained multiple attack-related details, including the attacker’s IP addresses, VPN and VPS infrastructure, user agents and technical environments used to launch unauthorized requests, associated email addresses, software and infrastructure service providers, and other identifying information. The relevant evidence has been preserved and will be provided to appropriate parties. Keeta has given the attacker a 72-hour deadline to return all funds obtained from the breach. The team said refunds in KTA, ETH, or USDC are acceptable, and has published the fund return address on the Base network. If the attacker returns the full amount, Keeta is willing to discuss an appropriate bug bounty to recognize their vulnerability discovery, and aims to resolve the incident without further legal action. Keeta noted this proposal is contingent on full fund return and cooperation to confirm the incident’s resolution; if funds are not returned within the 72-hour window, the team reserves all rights and will proceed with legal and fund recovery measures.