Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

**May 3** U.S. President Trump on Friday accused Tehran’s leadership of being divided, hindering progress on a deal to end the nine-week-old conflict that’s sparked a global energy crisis. He said he couldn’t agree to Iran’s “request,” but some traders saw this as a negotiation tactic—not a full abandonment of peace efforts. Separately, reports that Tehran sent a new proposal to Washington via Pakistan also helped push oil prices lower. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (per original text: “Aragchi”) said Iran is ready to keep up diplomatic efforts with the U.S., but added its armed forces remain “highly vigilant.” WTI crude dropped nearly 3% on Friday, settling around $103 a barrel, while posting a roughly 7% weekly gain. The S&P 500 extended its record rally Friday, notching its fifth straight week of gains, boosted by strong earnings from tech giants. **Upcoming U.S. Economic Data** - Wednesday, 8:15 p.m.: April ADP Employment Change - Thursday, 7:30 p.m.

On May 3, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York issued a restraining order against Arbitrum DAO, barring it from transferring approximately $71 million worth of ETH assets frozen following the KelpDAO hack. The plaintiff is seeking to use these assets to enforce an unpaid judgment related to North Korea’s history of terrorism, kidnappings, and other cases. Court filings show the plaintiff has applied to serve legal notice on Arbitrum DAO via alternative methods and classifies the entity as a liable "partnership organization." The court also noted Arbitrum DAO has a Security Council governed by ARB token holders, with authority to act in emergencies. If members decline to cooperate, they could face legal consequences including contempt of court. Market participants view the case as a potential landmark example of the U.S. judicial system directly impacting DAO governance structures, again underscoring compliance pressures on DeFi protocols within real-wo

**OPEC+ Draft: 7 Nations Agree to 188k BPD June Output Hike (3rd Consecutive Monthly Increase)** A draft OPEC+ statement dated May 3 shows seven member states have agreed to raise June oil production targets by ~188,000 barrels per day (bpd)—marking the third straight monthly output increase. The move signals the group is prepared to boost supply post-conflict. Sources note the UAE withdrew from the organization earlier this week, but OPEC+ will proceed with the output hike plan. The seven countries at Sunday’s meeting: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman. OPEC’s latest monthly report (from last month) revealed March OPEC+ output averaged 35.06 million bpd—down 770,000 bpd from February. Iraq and Saudi Arabia led the cuts, driven by export constraints. The draft calls for the seven members to reconvene on June 7.

May 3 — UnblockPay, a stablecoin-focused bank and payment platform, announced it has closed a $4.5 million seed round. The funding was led by Prelude, with participation from Plug and Play, Wintermute, Reverie, Signature Ventures, Triaxis Capital, Crescera Capital and others. Founded in 2025, UnblockPay primarily offers enterprises stablecoin cross-border payment and forex settlement infrastructure. It supports seamless conversion between fiat currencies and stablecoins like USDC and USDT, covering Latin America, the U.S. and European markets. The company’s executives noted that in its first year of operations, it has processed over 300 million Brazilian Reals (roughly $53 million) in transaction volume.

**May 3 — On-chain data indicates a Morgan Stanley address executed two separate Bitcoin purchases totaling 286.693 BTC yesterday, with funds sourced from a Coinbase Prime address. The firm’s total BTC holdings now stand at 2,620 BTC.** **Previously reported by BlockBeats: On April 24, Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) — the asset management arm of Morgan Stanley — launched the stablecoin reserve portfolio fund MSNXX. Tailored exclusively for stablecoin issuers, this U.S. government money market fund aims to offer a regulated, secure storage solution for the reserve funds backing their tokenized fiat currencies.**

On May 3rd, Chris Perkins, CEO of 250 Digital Asset Management, stated that even if the U.S. Congress ultimately fails to pass the cryptocurrency market structure bill known as the "CLARITY Act," the long-term development of the U.S. crypto industry will not be a problem. Perkins noted that U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and U.S. CFTC Chair Michael Selig are actively advancing the development of a crypto regulatory framework, delivering the long-awaited "certainty, stability, and classification system" the industry has sought. He noted that during former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s tenure, being classified as a security was seen as a "death sentence" for crypto projects—but the market’s attitude toward security tokens has since shifted dramatically. Perkins also emphasized, however, that if the "CLARITY Act" is formally enacted, it will make it harder for future administrations to roll back the current regulatory framework, as "once a law is passed, it becomes far more difficult to repe