Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

According to Bitget market data, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose more than 6% intraday. Reports say Yemen’s Houthi forces attacked a Saudi airport.

According to Bit.com market data, U.S. stock markets continue to slump, with all three major indexes falling. The Nasdaq once dropped over 1.3%, led by tech stocks: SanDisk fell 12.28%, Western Digital and Seagate Technology both dropped more than 6%, Micron fell 5.53%, SK Hynix fell 7.6%, Intel fell over 6%, and SpaceX fell 4.36%. On the news front, Trump said he would immediately reimpose a blockade on Iran and impose a 20% fee on cargo shipments. Later, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the core inflation data released this week remains high, the Federal Reserve will need to consider raising interest rates in the near term. Waller noted that the recent rise in core inflation is a cause for concern, with tariffs, rising energy prices, and demand for AI investment being the main factors driving up inflation.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that the U.S. Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates in the near term if future data shows inflation remains well above the 2% target, describing current monetary policy as being at a crossroads. Waller noted that the path forward will be determined by new data such as the CPI report to be released Tuesday, adding that if data trends turn unfavorable, the Fed is currently in a phase where it should not slack off. Waller stated: "At the current policy level, inflation still has a chance to gradually fall back to the 2% target. But I am equally concerned about the opposite scenario: data in the coming weeks will show inflation remaining at high levels or even continuing to rise, which would require tighter monetary policy in the near term." He specifically noted that he is concerned recent inflation reports show price pressures appear to be broadening across the economy, beyond the impacts of last year’s import tariff hikes or recent energy cost increases, which may reflect broader systemic inflation and would require tighter monetary policy. Waller added: "If this week’s core inflation rate comes in hot again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will have to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. It will take months of sustained lower inflation data to confirm that inflation is moving in the right direction." (Jinshi)

Japanese investment bank Mizuho stated that Circle’s final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish the First National Digital Currency Bank is a positive development, but it does not address the firm’s core current challenges. Mizuho maintains a "neutral" rating on Circle, warning that the market’s reaction to this positive news may be overly optimistic. The firm notes that since March this year, USDC’s circulating market capitalization has fallen by roughly $70 billion to around $740 billion, a sign of slowing growth momentum that could weigh on Circle’s transaction revenue and reserve earnings. Additionally, Mizuho highlights that Open USD (OUSD), a stablecoin complying with the GENIUS Act and launched by over 140 financial and tech firms including Mastercard, Stripe, and Coinbase, is intensifying market competition. As more consortium-based stablecoins emerge, the stablecoin sector may become more homogeneous, making it increasingly difficult for Circle to retain its competitive advantage.

According to Bitget market data, Brent crude oil has broken through $80 per barrel, rising 5.35% intraday; WTI crude oil is up more than 5.7% on the day, currently trading at $75.45.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if an AI-related asset bubble bursts or the market experiences a sharp correction, financial conditions will undergo "considerable changes." Waller noted he does not want the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates prematurely to avoid triggering a recession, but also emphasized that the Fed must not repeat the mistake of being slow to respond to inflation in 2021. He believes the current labor market remains stable, and there are "credible reasons" to expect inflation to continue falling without further policy tightening. However, Waller warned that relying solely on market expectations of inflation declining is insufficient to justify the Fed holding pat. If the Fed waits until market confidence fades to act, it may have to raise interest rates more aggressively to catch up with inflation. "We cannot afford to turn a blind eye to inflation until it is completely gone," he said.