Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

On December 8, data from Coinglass shows that if Bitcoin surpasses $93,000, the cumulative short liquidation pressure across major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $721 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin drops below $90,000, the cumulative long liquidation pressure for these mainstream CEXs will reach $340 million. BlockBeats Note: The liquidation chart does not display the exact number or value of contracts at risk of liquidation. Instead, the bars on the chart reflect the relative significance of each liquidation cluster compared to its neighboring clusters—essentially, its "intensity." As such, the chart indicates how strongly the underlying asset’s price will react when it hits a specific level. A taller "liquidation bar" means the price will experience a more pronounced response due to a liquidity cascade at that level.

December 8 — Prediction market “Will Trump Declassify UFO Files by 2025?” on PolyBeats surged from 5% to 71% in half an hour yesterday, sparking expectations of imminent UFO disclosure. The market’s existence ties to two drivers: Trump’s explicit 2024 campaign pledge to “declassify everything,” and the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)’s mandatory declassification rule for the Department of Defense (DoD). Trading data shows the rally began with trader “ster,” who has consistently bought “Yes” shares since the market launched. Yesterday’s surge was fueled by his market orders during a liquidity crunch, pushing the probability higher. A review of his trade history confirms his strategy aligns with “buy low, sell high” — not insider trading. On the flip side, 6 accounts stood out in the 12 hours after the probability spike. They collectively purchased over 20,000 “No” shares at an average price below $0.20, betting Trump will not declassify the files by 2025. A key c

On December 8, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.965%, notching a new high not seen since June 2007. (Caijing Ten)

On December 8, Philippine digital bank GoTyme—serving 6.5 million customers—has partnered with U.S. fintech firm Alpaca to launch cryptocurrency services in the Philippines. Now, users can buy and store 11 different cryptocurrencies via GoTyme’s banking app, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, DOT and other altcoins, with automatic conversion from Philippine pesos to U.S. dollars (USD).

On December 8, Onchain School monitoring data shows that a wallet address linked to the BEAT team transferred tokens worth roughly $1.2 million to Gate approximately 17 hours prior. As of now, these tokens remain in the exchange’s deposit address and have not been further transferred or traded. However, analysis reveals that some of the BEAT team’s holding wallets have already executed small-scale transactions, suggesting potential future profit-taking moves.

This week, on Wednesday, December 8, the Federal Reserve will release its December interest rate decision. Currently, Polymarket pegs the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December at 93% — marking a high level of market consensus for a cut this month. Additionally, the Fed will announce its January interest rate decision on January 28 next year. As of press time, the chance of **no rate cut** in January has risen to 68%, while the probability of a cut stands at just 27%.