Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

February 7: Bitcoin rallied this morning to hit $71,751, per HTX market data, up 19.58% from its intraday low of $60,000. That marks the largest single-day price gain in this bull-bear cycle.

On-chain data analyst Wu Jinyan reported on February 7 that Yihui’s subsidiary Trend Research has transferred a total of 630,400 ETH (valued at roughly $1.294 billion) to Binance. Only 21,300 ETH (about $43.94 million) remains in its on-chain holdings. Since 96% of its ETH has been sent to a trading platform—far exceeding the amount required to unwind leverage—complete liquidation is highly probable.

On February 7th, alternative data shows the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 6—down from 9 the day prior—deepening the market’s “extreme fear” sentiment. Historically, readings this low have only been recorded in June 2022 and August 2019. Note: The Fear & Greed Index ranges from 0 to 100, with the following components: Volatility (25%) + Market Trading Volume (25%) + Social Media Hype (15%) + Market Surveys (15%) + Bitcoin Dominance (10%) + Google Trends Analysis (10%).

On February 7th, Michael Saylor took to Twitter to celebrate Bitcoin’s rebound, captioning the post “LFG”.

February 7th — Per Arkham data, Trend Research deposited another 15,000 ETH to Binance 15 minutes ago, pushing its primary liquidation level below $1,500. Notable potential liquidation amounts at key price levels: - $1,464: ~$122 million - $1,347: ~$92.23 million - $1,328: ~$22.39 million Additionally, a $96.66 million liquidation is possible at $1,583.

**Feb 7: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Says Current Monetary Policy "Well Positioned" for Future Developments** - Job market softening amid weakening demand, immigration challenges - December PCE Price Index seen rising 2.9% year-over-year - Labor market may be in equilibrium (muted hiring, firing activity) - U.S. economy forecast to grow 2.2% this year Source: FX168 ### Notes on American English adaptation: 1. **Conciseness**: Used short, punchy phrases (common in U.S. financial alerts) instead of run-on sentences. 2. **Terminology**: Swapped "waning demand" → "weakening demand" (more colloquial in U.S. finance) and "year-on-year" → "year-over-year" (standard YoY shorthand in American media). 3. **Flow**: Grouped key data points into scannable bullet points (typical of U.S. news briefs). 4. **Clarity**: Replaced "address future eventualities" → "handle future developments" (more natural in casual financial discourse) and "low hiring and firing environment" → "muted hiri