Lookonchain APP

App Store

Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

2025.04.18 15:48:23

On April 18th, Adam Posen, who has held positions in the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, stated in a speech this week, "We may be on the verge of a recession or we might not. Nevertheless, in either case, we will be confronted with inflation." Posen, currently serving as the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wields significant influence. He believes that there is a 65% probability of a recession. Regarding the Fed, Posen thinks that given the still relatively high level of inflation, it has cut interest rates too vigorously. Once prices start to rise again, the Fed may not be able to keep pace with the changes. As a consequence, the Fed may be compelled to raise interest rates rapidly and significantly, thereby placing additional stress on the economy. If all these scenarios were to come to pass, Posen said that repairing this damage could take several years or even longer. (FXStreet)
Relevant content

CZ on screening team members: He favors subordinates who proactively track progress, and generally does not retain those who require his active follow-up.

Binance CEO CZ (Changpeng Zhao) appeared on the "Meanders" podcast, where he discussed stress resistance, adaptability, and lifelong motivation in his crypto industry work. When sharing how he selects work partners, CZ noted he receives over 500 messages daily and handles a multitude of miscellaneous tasks as CEO, leaving him unable to closely track individual project progress. He explained: "When a teammate comes to me and I assign them a task, I won’t proactively follow up for days or even weeks. That’s why I need highly proactive people—they should be the ones pushing me forward. If we need to schedule back-to-back meetings tomorrow or the next day, they should set the timeline, not me. If I have to ask someone about the status of their project, I usually won’t keep them on the team, and that’s often a sign the project is already facing issues. I want my teammates to update me on progress on their own, whether daily or weekly, so I don’t have to chase them for updates. All the people around me are very proactive. Another key point for me: you can keep three to five important tasks that I need to handle in mind, and the rest should be theirs to complete, with them proactively reporting back to me."

2 minutes ago

Trader 0x463e Sits on $49.5K Unrealized Profit, 223% Return as $牛来 Surges Over 510% on Aster

After $牛来 was listed on @Aster_DEX Perps, its price surged by over 510%. Trader 0x463e opened a 5x long on 1.13M $牛来 ($111K) on @Aster_DEX and is now sitting on a $49.5K unrealized profit — a 223% return.

2 minutes ago

Meme coin TENDIES on Robinhood Chain has surpassed $27 million in market capitalization, posting a 41.2% 24-hour gain.

According to GMGN market data, the meme token TENDIES on the Robinhood blockchain has exceeded $27 million in market capitalization, with a 24-hour increase of 41.2% to hit a recent high, and has now pulled back to $22 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.8 million. TENDIES originates from the internet meme "tendies" (chicken nuggets), which comes from U.S. retail investors and the Reddit community, embodying the grassroots sense of victory of ordinary retail investors celebrating by eating chicken nuggets after making profits. BlockBeats Note: Meme coin trading is highly volatile, largely dependent on market sentiment and concept hype, has no actual value or use cases, and investors should be mindful of the risks.

2 minutes ago

Tether’s CEO refutes the claim that “stablecoins cannot support large-scale payments”: Stablecoins are 100% reserve-backed, while banks operate on fractional reserves that are merely based on hollow promises.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has responded in a post to remarks from Bank for International Settlements (BIS) General Manager, who claimed stablecoins are inadequate for large-scale payments and instead backed tokenized bank deposits. Ardoino drew a structural comparison between the two: stablecoins are backed by 100% liquid assets such as government bonds, while tokenized bank deposits are essentially unenforceable pledges—typically not fully insured, with liquid asset reserves often standing at just around 10% (a fractional reserve). The BIS’s real concern is not whether stablecoins can facilitate payments, but that they expose the "emperor’s new clothes" of the traditional banking system. Ardoino then raised two questions: if stablecoins are fully reserved, why should savings be placed in fractional reserve products? What would become of the financial system if people realize stablecoins are safer and move their savings there? Ardoino directly took aim at the fractional reserve model of the traditional banking system.

2 minutes ago

Serenity: SIVE has solid fundamentals but an incorrect positioning, and should be regarded as a next-generation global high-growth laser optics company.

After SIVE’s earnings report, Serenity published an article systematically outlining its bullish thesis on the scaling of optical interconnects and co-packaged optics (CPO) between 2027 and 2028. Pluggable module segment: JBL has confirmed 1.6T LRO, with orders placed in H1 2027 and ramp-up in H2, potentially serving multiple hyperscalers. Three other module manufacturers are evaluating the opportunity, while three more are conducting supply assessments. Reference design segment: GlobalFoundries’ SCALE has confirmed potential CPO customers including AMD and other hyperscalers. External light source and optical engine segment: POET, O-Net, and SemiNex are confirmed players, while AEVA is a potential match. For 2028 Optical I/O: Ayar Labs has confirmed potential integrations with AMD, Alchip, hyperscaler ASICs, and NVIDIA NVLink. Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and Lightelligence are listed as potential customers. The same period may also see TFLN-related projects such as Apple’s next-generation wearables. Serenity cites Goldman Sachs data showing the total addressable market for CPO will grow from near zero to roughly $91 billion by 2028. Morgan Stanley has named Sivers, LITE, and COHR as key laser suppliers for CPO. But Serenity’s criticism of SIVE is equally sharp: the company has not clearly communicated the economic scale of the 2027-2028 optical scaling cycle to Western and U.S. institutions. SIVE should position itself as a next-generation, high-growth global laser optics company targeting hyperscalers, rather than framing its narrative around backward-looking metrics like "current small revenue and ongoing losses". SIVE should be viewed as a high-elasticity play in the 1.6T and CPO optical transition cycle between 2027 and 2028.

2 minutes ago

Crypto KOL @XXAntiWar chased the rally to buy Niu Lai today, with its unrealized profit once topping $860,000.

According to GMGN market data, crypto KOL @XXAntiWar chased the rally to buy 17.56 million units of "Niulai" when its market cap stood at around $86 million. After Binance announced it will list Niulai derivatives contracts, his unrealized gains once exceeded 47%, peaking at $860,000, and currently standing at $210,000. The cost of his position is approximately $1.514 million. Earlier, on-chain analyst Yu Jin monitored that 5 hours ago, two addresses suspected to belong to crypto KOL @XXAntiWar chased the rally to purchase Niulai when its market cap was around $86 million: - Address 0x90c1 used 1,540 BNB (valued at ~$1.067 million) to buy 12.25 million Niulai; - Address 0xfe57 used 645 BNB (valued at ~$447,000) to buy 5.31 million Niulai. BlockBeats reminds users that most meme coins lack real-world use cases, are subject to extreme price volatility, and investment in them requires caution.

2 minutes ago

Popular tokens

BitcoinEthereumHyperliquidSolanaTRONBNBTetherAaveXRPPepeFartcoinOndoJupiterUniswapBonkPendleEthenaArbitrumAvalancheLidoChainlinkPolygonDogecoinCardano