Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

March 3 (Monday) — A U.S. federal judge has ordered the remand of Nevada’s lawsuits against prediction market platforms Kalshi and rival Polymarket to state court, allowing state regulators to proceed with their push for preliminary injunctions. The ruling raises the risk both platforms could be forced to halt trading in Nevada. The court determined Nevada’s Gaming Control Board’s claims are “state-law-based,” and the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) does not “completely preclude” state gambling laws from applying — meaning federal courts lack jurisdiction. Previously, both companies argued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) holds “exclusive jurisdiction” over the disputed event contracts. If Nevada secures the injunction, Kalshi could be barred from offering event contract products to in-state users during the litigation. Legal analysts call the ruling a “significant setback” for Kalshi, warning it may trigger a “domino effect” with more states launching similar su

On March 3rd, Farside Monitoring reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $458.2 million yesterday, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $38.7 million in net inflows.

March 3rd: OnchainLens data shows a whale address swapped 99.5 BTC (≈$6.7M) via THORChain at a rate of 0.0297, receiving 3,347 ETH.

March 3 — The "Pizza Index" — dubbed by markets as a tongue-in-cheek "canary in the coal mine" for U.S. military activity — has again seen unusual fluctuations. Latest data from the monitoring account Pentagon Pizza Watch shows Domino’s Pizza, roughly 1.4 miles from the Pentagon, reported a Monday evening order surge of 227% above normal levels, triggering an alert level upgrade to "DOUGHCON 4." Comparisons with nearby stores reveal a mixed picture: some pizza shops are "extremely busy," while others remain "quiet" or closed — signs of a structural volume surge. Relevant monitoring models indicate the short-term order spike in the area typically correlates with increased overtime among Pentagon staff. Historically, the "Pentagon Pizza Index" has flagged anomalies ahead of several major U.S. international military operations. Unusual shifts were noted before January’s U.S. military action against Venezuela and during prior escalations in the Iran situation. Market analysis n

**March 3 – Strait of Hormuz in Global Economic Spotlight Amid Iran Tensions** Tensions in Iran and Middle East retaliatory actions have thrust the Strait of Hormuz back into the global economic spotlight. Analysts warn even partial or temporary oil supply disruptions could hit the global economy hard—with a prolonged closure risking a "certain recession." Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group and former Bush administration energy advisor, said: *“A prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure would send the global economy into a certain recession.”* U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows: - 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade will pass through the strait by 2024; - 38% of the world’s oil supply flows through the waterway; - Saudi Arabia alone will ship ~5.5 million barrels of oil per day via the strait in 2024. Alternative pipelines across the Arabian Peninsula have limited capacity, so they can’t offset a full closure. Even without an Ir

March 3 – OpenClaw has removed content related to the "Key Recommended Venice Model" from its official documentation, per data from the company’s official document pages. Meanwhile, OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger clarified in a post earlier today: "This was an oversight in a prior document, and we intend to remain neutral on the issue."