Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

BNB slipped below $750 briefly on February 4, per HTX market data, with a 2.36% 24-hour drop that pushed its market cap to $102.165 billion.

On February 4, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee addressed market concerns, pushing back against claims that the firm’s sizeable Ethereum (ETH) unrealized loss reserve will act as a “price ceiling” for future ETH prices. Lee noted that unrealized losses on the balance sheet during market downturns are an “inherent feature of Ethereum reserve strategy—not a design flaw.” Previous commentary flagged that BitMine’s ETH holdings have posted an unrealized loss of roughly $6.6 billion, and argued the tokens would eventually be sold—pressuring ETH prices. Lee was even labeled the “liquidity exit” for early ETH holders. In response, Lee pushed back that such takes “misunderstand the operational logic of Ethereum reserve firms,” adding BitMine’s goal is to track and outperform ETH’s performance across a full market cycle, not engage in short-term trading. Data shows ETH has dropped nearly 30% in the past month, while BitMine’s share price has fallen roughly 30% over the same period. The firm curre

February 4th — Ethereum (ETH) faces further downside risks this February, per Cointelegraph. Technically, ETH has entered a classic inverse cup-and-handle breakdown phase. If the pattern completes, its target price sits around $1,665 — a roughly 25% drop from current levels. From a price action standpoint, ETH broke below the pattern’s neckline (~$2,960) in January, then rebounded to test that level but failed and pulled back. It also hasn’t reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, which now act as key overhead resistance levels. Multiple technical signals line up to reinforce expectations of a short-term downtrend continuation. On-chain data also signals bearish sentiment. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) extreme divergence range points to a downside target of ~$1,725 for ETH, with further downside not ruled out. Historically, ETH has tended to gradually bottom out and start a rebound after touching or falling below the MVRV lower bound. Macro-wise, risk appetite for

On February 4th, Coinglass data shows Bitcoin fell below $73,000 this morning and has since rebounded to above $76,000. Funding rate data indicates the market is recovering, with BTC, ETH and altcoin funding rates turning positive in batches—suggesting neutrality is gradually returning even amid bearish sentiment. BlockBeats Note: Funding rates are fees set by crypto exchanges to align contract prices with underlying asset prices, primarily for perpetual contracts. It’s a fund transfer mechanism between long and short traders; exchanges do not charge this fee. Instead, it adjusts the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to keep contract prices close to the underlying asset’s price. A 0.01% funding rate is the baseline. Rates above 0.01% signal a generally bullish market, while rates below 0.005% indicate a bearish trend.

February 4th — DefiLlama data shows open interest across perpetual decentralized exchanges (Perp DEXs) has continued to decline over the past seven days. Hyperliquid’s open interest is down roughly 36.2% week-over-week, while its trading volume has rebounded. This may be driven by frequent position adjustments from existing traders in response to market volatility over the past 24 hours, leading to "passive unwinding." Below are current 24-hour trading volumes, total value locked (TVL), and open interest for major Perp DEXs: - Hyperliquid (https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/NTOD): ~$13.08B (24h volume) | ~$4.36B (TVL) | ~$5.82B (open interest) - Aster (https://www.asterdex.com/en/referral/aboter): ~$5.66B (24h volume) | ~$1.14B (TVL) | ~$2.00B (open interest) - EdgeX: ~$5.20B (24h volume) | ~$195M (TVL) | ~$869M (open interest) - Lighter (https://app.lighter.xyz/?referral=70045843): ~$4.46B (24h volume) | ~$974M (TVL) | ~$1.05B (open interest) - Extended: ~$2.43B (24h volume) | ~$218M

February 4 A South Korean court has sentenced Lee Jong-hwan, CEO of a cryptocurrency management firm, to three years in prison for price manipulation that yielded illegal profits—marking the first ruling under the *Virtual Assets User Protection Act* (effective July 2024), per the Korean Economic Daily. The court also imposed a 500 million South Korean won ($343,900) fine and ordered forfeiture of roughly 846 million won ($582,000) in illicit gains. Lee will not be detained pending final judgment due to good behavior during the trial. Between July 22 and October 25, 2024, Lee used an automated trading program to inflate trading volume and executed multiple wash trades to manipulate the ACE cryptocurrency’s price. His illegal profits totaled ~7.1 billion won ($488,000). Before using the program, the coin’s average daily trading volume was ~160,000 units; it surged to 2.45 million units the next day.