Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

On March 1, reports emerged that six new wallets on prediction market platform Polymarket had accurately bet on contracts tied to “U.S. military strikes against Iran by the end of February” **before** the U.S. launched such a strike on February 28. The wallets netted roughly $1 million in total profits, sparking concerns about potential insider trading. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found the six wallets were all newly created in February, with nearly all trades focused on contracts predicting the timing of U.S. military action against Iran. Some positions were opened just hours before the first reports of explosions in Tehran, with buy-in prices as low as around $0.10. Analysts said this concentrated betting ahead of a major geopolitical event mirrors “suspected insider trading” seen in past prediction markets. Data shows that during the escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions, cumulative trading volume for related attack contracts on Polymarket exceeded $529 million. The “Febru

On March 1, Saudi Arabia’s main stock index (TASI) trimmed its losses to 1.6%. Shares of Saudi National Bank, Riyad Bank and other lenders fell, while Saudi Aramco gained more than 2%.

March 1 — The Dubai Media Office reported two drones flying over two residential areas in Dubai were intercepted by air defense forces, with debris falling and injuring two people. Earlier that morning (local time), multiple explosions struck Dubai in succession. Local residents captured footage of missiles hitting the city. The United Arab Emirates’ defense system intercepted multiple missiles over Dubai the same day, per Jinse.

**March 1 Update** Elon Musk on Wednesday retweeted his Jan. 4 Persian-language reply to a Jan. 3 tweet from the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, adding: "That's how it is." Khamenei’s original Jan. 3 post stated: "We will never yield to the enemy." Musk’s Jan. 4 response was: "A foolish fantasy."

AI Monitor reported that at 10:30 AM ET on March 1, address 0xdf1...6f0b0 opened a 1,000 BTC 40x long position shortly after the official announcement of Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination. The position’s entry price is $67,167, with a liquidation price of $66,559—just $390 below its current level, resulting in a floating loss of $228,900. The same address also holds a 20x long SOL position, currently showing a floating profit of $810,000. Its total historical profit stands at $775,300.

March 1 (CCTV News) — Iran has confirmed that its Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, has died.