Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

April 9th (Reuters) — The Israeli military said Thursday it killed the nephew of Naim Qassem, leader of Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah, in an overnight strike on Beirut—**not** Qassem himself. Qassem has held a senior role in Hezbollah for over 30 years and officially became the group’s leader in 2024. That year, with U.S. support, Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire ending more than a year of fighting. Since then, Israel has regularly targeted what it identifies as Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. Hezbollah has targeted Israel since the assassination of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israel has since killed over 1,000 people in Lebanon.

April 9th: Total trading volume of WTI and Brent crude oil has exceeded Bitcoin’s for the first time, per official data from Hyperliquid. Bitcoin’s volume stood at $2.29 billion, while WTI crude hit $1.68 billion and Brent crude reached $770 million.

On April 9, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported that an Iranian military spokesperson expressed hope for a ceasefire agreement in ongoing negotiations, but noted that if talks fail, "we are also prepared for a long-term war." Iran’s proposed conditions will serve as the basis for the negotiations. (Xinhua International)

On April 9, HyperInsight Monitoring reported that Abraxas Capital—the largest crude oil short seller on the Hyperliquid platform—saw its balance surge by over $12 million in the week following a ceasefire announcement. The firm’s “short oil, long crypto” portfolio flipped from a prior $9.7 million loss to a profit. At press time, the two associated addresses continue to realize profits while paring positions simultaneously, with current unrealized gains totaling $8.7 million. Post this round of position trimming, total open positions still stand at $152 million: US/UK crude shorts total ~$126 million, while crypto longs amount to ~$26.1 million. Crude oil short details are below: - Brent Crude Short (5x leverage): Position trimmed from $92 million to $78 million; average entry price ~$103 - WTI Crude Short (5x leverage): Position reduced from $51 million to $48.5 million; average entry price ~$98.30 Addresses: 0x5b5d51203a0f9079f8aeb098a6523a13F298C060 0xb83de012dba67

April 9th — Per Emperor Osmo’s monitoring, the Avalanche team has cumulatively deposited ~$180M worth of AVAX to Coinbase over the past six months (since last September), representing 1.88% of AVAX’s circulating supply. Currently, 1.88% of AVAX’s circulating supply is valued at ~$73M at current market prices.

On April 9, on-chain detective ZachXBT revealed that U.S. Bitcoin ATM operator Bitcoin Depot (BTM) disclosed in an 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that a security incident occurred on March 23, resulting in the theft of approximately 50.9 BTC (worth roughly $3.6 million). However, further investigation traced the actual incident to March 20—meaning funds were moved three days before the company detected the breach. On-chain analysis identified 19 highly credible related addresses holding a total of around 54.45 BTC (about $3.7 million), which exceeds the company’s reported amount by roughly 3.55 BTC and may involve an employee’s personal account. Fund flows show approximately 54 BTC ultimately moved to cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin. As of now, these involved addresses have not been flagged by mainstream compliance monitoring tools.