Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

Sources familiar with the matter: Anthropic plans to hold a mega-sized IPO ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday period, and could launch its IPO roadshow as early as the week of November 9.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson said the Federal Reserve "may need more time" to decide on its next interest rate hike.

US President Trump said, regarding Iran: "I must make a decision now. Either Iran signs the agreement, or it will cease to exist."

Scott Rubner, Head of Stock and Equity Derivatives Strategy at Castle Securities, said retail investors are poised to flood back into the U.S. stock market this month following a sharp cool-down in September. In a client note, Rubner wrote that while volatility may persist in October, the month offers a better entry point for investors to "rebuild positions" as earnings season arrives and corporate stock buybacks are set to resume. He noted that after positions were cleared and valuations declined, "the market enters the fourth quarter from a cleaner starting point, with significantly more room to rebuild exposure." Rubner added that in September, spot stock trading volume fell to 0.94 times the average of the past year, the lowest level since 2026. Retail option premiums also dropped to the same multiple. Currently, stock trading activity is 26% lower than its June peak, while option premiums have shrunk by roughly a third from their 1.41x level at that time.

According to the U.S. Treasury Department website, the United States has issued new Iran-related sanctions. The announcement states that the U.S. is imposing the latest sanctions on Iranian railway and automotive enterprise groups, aiming to economically isolate Iran.

Oct 1 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -1,796 $BTC(-$150.24M)?? 7D NetFlow: +3,096 $BTC(+$258.99M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -5,171 $ETH(-$13.89M)?? 7D NetFlow: +41,041 $ETH(+$110.24M)??