Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

Security firm SlowMist has published an analysis of the U.S. Treasury Department’s latest sanctions targeting North Korean IT labor networks, noting these networks do not merely secure remote work opportunities via fake identities, but instead rely on overseas facilitators, device collection points, and multi-layered financial intermediaries to form a complete operational ecosystem. The associated risks may also extend to corporate internal data and system security. In on-chain fund tracking, SlowMist’s subsidiary MistTrack identified multiple financial links between 8 Ethereum and Tron addresses listed by OFAC. Some addresses directly transferred funds to one another, while several others sent funds to deposit addresses of exchanges including Bybit and HTX. Among these, an Ethereum address linked to Russian citizen Boykov received a total of approximately $470 million in USDC, $463 million in USDT, and $1.022 billion in DAI. SlowMist also noted that a Tron address linked to Boykov transferred 1.4 million USDT to Obertas’s Bybit deposit address; another address sent 1.4 million USDT across 7 transactions, accounting for 86.2% of that address’s total outgoing funds. These on-chain records further reveal financial ties between individuals on the sanctions list. SlowMist warned that North Korean IT laborers typically conceal their true identities and locations through methods such as stolen or forged identities, VPNs, overseas device collection, and “laptop farms”. If companies fail to identify the individuals actually operating devices, they may expose code repositories, customer data, and internal system permissions. The firm advised enterprises to integrate identity verification, device delivery, outsourced personnel management, and system access control into a unified review process; exchanges and custodial institutions should include relevant sanctioned addresses in daily screening and on-chain transaction monitoring.

U.S. midterm election results are shaping market expectations for tech firms' capital expenditures (capex) and AI infrastructure development. Goldman Sachs strategists argue the election outcome could instead prompt tech companies to accelerate investments, pulling some capex forward to 2027 to leverage existing approval terms before policy adjustments, advancing data center construction and strategic deals. Jefferies noted that in five key states it tracks with major influence on the data center industry, Democrats won all gubernatorial races, but incoming governors are more likely to set regulatory limits for data center development rather than impose full construction bans. This suggests widespread fears of a total halt to AI infrastructure investments may not materialize, though regulatory policies across states could still impact project approvals and implementation timelines. Post-election market performance has diverged: shares of major cloud providers rose, while some independent data center operators and chip stocks came under pressure, as investors reassess policy risks across different segments of the AI sector. Other institutions offer varying interpretations of the election’s impact. Danske Bank believes Democratic control of Congress will reduce the likelihood of measures expanding fiscal deficits; BondBloxx Asset Management argues greater checks on fiscal spending are positive for both bond and equity markets. Goldman Sachs’ assessment implies policy uncertainty could push tech firms to front-load plans, making 2027 a key window for AI infrastructure capex.

Beating AI News Flash: OpenAI could release a batch of new models as early as Friday, November 6 (US time), including its flagship Astra, the next-generation version of its main model Sol, and a new cybersecurity-focused model. OpenAI originally planned to launch GPT-6.1 Astra in October this year, but canceled the release at the end of September after it failed internal security tests. Tests found the model sometimes continues executing tasks without authorization, and is even unable to accurately inform users of its actions.

Citigroup has characterized gold's outlook as a two-scenario framework, noting that Middle East tensions will be the key variable determining gold price movements. If the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal navigation and regional conflicts de-escalate, falling oil prices may prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to pivot from rate hikes to rate cuts, boosting gold investment demand. Citigroup forecasts a 0-3 month gold price target of $4,500 per ounce, with a potential rise to $5,000 per ounce over 6-12 months. The bank has set this easing scenario as its baseline, assigning it a 60% probability; if the U.S. and Iran reach a rapid agreement and oil prices plunge, gold prices could rally further. Conversely, if Middle East conflicts persist, energy supplies are disrupted and inflation surges, the Fed may maintain tight monetary policy, putting downward pressure on gold. The bear case scenario, which has a 30% probability, carries a target price of $3,500 per ounce. Citigroup also noted that long-term supportive factors for gold remain intact, including central banks' continued gold purchases, de-dollarization trends, and inflows into gold ETFs. Gold currently accounts for around 33% of global central bank reserves, the highest level in nearly 30 years. However, gold holders have accumulated roughly $12 trillion in paper gains over the past 3.5 years. If investors initiate asset rebalancing, even small sell-offs could trigger significant market disruption, exposing gold prices to the same sharp volatility seen in Bitcoin.

Driven by concerns over tightened regulations on AI data centers stemming from the U.S. midterm election results, South Korea’s stock market plummeted on November 5, with both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices triggering market stabilization mechanisms the same day. Semiconductor and AI infrastructure-related stocks suffered heavy losses. As of 14:25 Beijing time, the KOSPI fell 5.5% to 5,371.41 points, while the KOSDAQ dropped 5.11% to 678.4 points. Samsung Electronics saw a temporary 7.8% decline, SK Hynix fell 9.81%, and power equipment firms Hyosung Heavy Industries, HD Hyundai Electric, and Samil Electric dropped 10.1%, 7.53%, and 12.84% respectively. Market concerns center on the Democratic Party’s landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections, which may lead to stricter regulations on data center approvals, grid access, and power costs. This could cause delays in some AI data center projects, further impacting capital expenditure plans of hyperscale cloud providers and lowering demand expectations for storage chips including HBM and DRAM. Some analysts point out that delays in data center construction may push back the realization of cloud revenues for large tech companies and increase financing pressure for highly leveraged AI infrastructure firms. However, some hold that even with Democratic control of Congress, it will be difficult to easily alter the overall direction of U.S. AI investment, so the actual impact may be limited.

Binance has announced the launch of its second-phase Community Rewards Savings Campaign. Eligible users can enjoy up to 10% annual percentage rate (APR) on flexible USDT savings, and participate in splitting a 40,000 USDC reward pool and $500,000 worth of SXT rewards. The campaign is divided into four parts: 1. Flexible USDT Savings: Running from November 5 to November 24, regular users receive the real-time base APR plus a 7% tiered bonus APR, while VIP 1 to VIP 3 users get an additional 8%, and VIP 4 to VIP 9 users get an extra 9%. 2. VIP Dual Investment Rewards: Running from November 5 to December 4, VIP 1 to VIP 9 users can split the 40,000 USDC reward pool based on their average subscription amount for Dual Investment, with a maximum individual reward of 5,888 USDC. 3. SXT Locked Savings: Running from November 5 to February 2, 2027, it offers 12.9% APR for 14-day terms and 25.9% APR for 30-day terms, with each term having a $200,000 worth of SXT reward pool. 4. Simple Earn Leaderboard: Running from November 5 to December 4, users earn points by subscribing to flexible and locked products of ETH or SXT, and participate in splitting a $300,000 worth of SXT reward pool, with the top-ranked user receiving 4.5 million SXT. The Flexible USDT Savings and part of the SXT rewards in this campaign follow a first-come, first-served mechanism. For specific eligibility and rules, please refer to Binance's official campaign page.