Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

According to CoinGlass data, Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative premium territory for 75 consecutive days from May 19 to August 1, setting a new record for the longest consecutive negative premium period since the index’s launch. The previous longest record was 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, which also exceeded the roughly 30-day consecutive negative premium period during last year’s "1011 crash". The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the Bitcoin price spread between Coinbase Pro and Binance. A sustained negative index typically indicates Coinbase’s quoted price is relatively lower, reflecting weak buying demand or heavy selling pressure in the U.S. market, but the metric alone should not be used to directly conclude that institutional funds are flowing out.

Whale 0x2684 bought another 7,919.5 $ETH($14.89M) today. Since June 30, the whale has bought 74,265 $ETH($131.5M) at an average price of $1,771 and 1,050 $WBTC($67.49M) at an average price of $64,277.

Kuwaiti military: Its air defense forces are currently intercepting enemy missiles from Iran.

Early this morning, BSC ecosystem meme coin ASTEROID surged past $10 million in market capitalization just four hours after its launch. Per GMGN market data, as of press time, the token’s trading volume has topped $20.5 million. GMGN records show the token was deployed from the TST developer address. Earlier, CZ publicly stated that BNB Chain members used TST as an example for tutorial videos, and the team later “handled (deleted)” the private key of the address that created the TST token. This lingering uncertainty is likely the key factor driving ASTEROID’s rapid price rally.

According to South Korean media outlet Daum, South Korea’s stock market has seen heightened volatility recently, with investors’ risk appetite cooling sharply as funds flow back to safe-haven assets like bank deposits from equities. Driven by semiconductor sector corrections and stricter oversight of leveraged investments, idle funds in the South Korean stock market have exited rapidly, triggering a so-called "reverse capital migration" phenomenon. Data shows that as of the end of July, time deposit balances at South Korea’s five major banks (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, and NH Nonghyup) reached 973.49 trillion won, rising by 24.09 trillion won from the previous month, marking the largest monthly increase so far this year. Funds linked to the stock market have also contracted noticeably. Data from the Korea Financial Investment Association indicates that investor securities account deposits (idle funds earmarked for stock trading) hit an all-time high of 139.69 trillion won on June 4, but fell to 107.20 trillion won by July 28, a reduction of over 32 trillion won in less than two months. Margin loan balances, which represent the scale of leveraged market transactions, dropped to 33.19 trillion won in the same period, down roughly 4.5 trillion won from the 37.72 trillion won peak set on July 2, a decline of around 12%.

Prominent trader Killa said in an early morning post that Bitcoin has pulled back again after the FOMC meeting. A key low-leverage long position cluster sits below the current price. He advised traders to monitor the $61,000 to $61,500 range; if this level breaks, Bitcoin will test the $54,000 to $56,000 zone. Killa, a BTC-focused quantitative trader, predicted the peak of the current bull run in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then shifted to a long position during the broad market sell-off on June 5.