Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

According to Bloomberg, U.S. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said House Democrats plan to hold a caucus meeting Tuesday morning to discuss legislative actions related to artificial intelligence, noting that addressing the challenges posed by AI is a "top priority" and requires urgent action. Jeffries added that Democrats are internally debating how to establish regulatory and safety "guardrails" in response to the industry’s rapid growth and potential risks.

The US currently has approximately $7 trillion in short-term Treasury securities outstanding, with around $6.1 trillion set to mature within one year. Including other maturing Treasury instruments, roughly $7.5 trillion in tradable US government debt will need refinancing in 2026, while another $4 trillion and $3.5 trillion will mature in 2027 and 2028 respectively. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by an additional 75 basis points, annual interest expenses on short-term Treasuries alone could rise by about $50 billion, equivalent to 0.15% of GDP. Additionally, most of these Treasuries will be refinanced at market rates higher than their original issuance rates, meaning the US is facing a round of far more expensive large-scale refinancing.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated that any gap in AI computing power demand will ultimately be covered by money printing. The current so-called "AI safety first" framework essentially boils down to two paths: The first is that the U.S. government steps in, taking over the roles of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX as the primary buyer of computing power, and sustaining data center and chip orders. The second is that these buyers vanish, triggering a collapse in AI-linked debts—with insurance companies bearing the initial brunt, and if they cannot absorb the losses, the Federal Reserve will step in to bail them out via money printing. Hayes concludes that either path results in money printing: whether through fiscal or monetary channels, liquidity will be unleashed, and risk assets will ultimately benefit.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin has not hit a new all-time high in nearly a year. As of now, it has been roughly 342 days since the last all-time high, approaching a full year. In previous cycles, Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high shortly after a halving, but this cycle’s pace has slowed. The next halving is expected around April 2028. Additionally, the interval between the previous cycle’s peak and the next all-time high has been shrinking: 1,180 days between 2014–2017, 1,094 days between 2017–2020, and 849 days between 2021–2024. Based on this trend, Darkfost inferred that if the shortening trend continues, even though Bitcoin has taken a year to break its prior all-time high this cycle, the new high may arrive faster than in previous cycles—there is no need to wait until 2028 under the old template of hitting a new high immediately after a halving. The cycle template is becoming less relevant, but the interval between new highs is shrinking and a new high is inevitable.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated that if a gap in AI computing power demand emerges, the final resort will be money printing. The so-called "AI safety first" framework currently boils down to only two possible paths: The first is the U.S. government stepping in to take over the roles of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, continuing as a major purchaser of computing power to sustain data center and chip orders. The second is these buyers vanishing, triggering a blowup in AI-linked debt—with insurance companies absorbing the losses first, and if they cannot withstand the burden, the Federal Reserve will step in to bail them out via money printing. Hayes concludes that either path results in the same outcome: money printing is unavoidable, whether through fiscal or monetary channels, liquidity will be released, and risk assets will ultimately benefit.

According to GMGN market data, the Chinese Meme coin Lobster saw its market cap briefly surge past $180 million today, hitting an all-time high. It has a 24-hour price increase of 12.7%, with a current market cap of $146 million and 24-hour trading volume of $16.3 million. BlockBeats reminds users that related tokens are highly volatile, so investors should exercise caution.