Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

Crypto miner IREN, which is transitioning to the neocloud business, released its fiscal 2026 results after market close today. The company posted Q4 revenue of $137.2 million, below Wall Street’s forecast of $157.14 million. Its adjusted EBITDA stood at $19.2 million, roughly 53% lower than expected. Sequentially, AI cloud service revenue rose from $33.6 million to $70.5 million, while Bitcoin mining revenue fell from $111.2 million to $66.7 million. In response to the news, IREN’s stock dropped more than 8% in after-hours trading.

According to sources familiar with the matter, federal authorities are preparing to sue a U.S. service member accused of betting on military operations on the Polymarket platform and reaping over $1 million in profits, part of an upcoming wave of insider trading cases. The service member, who has been under scrutiny since spring, successfully wagered on events linked to military strikes against Iran and Venezuela on the prediction market, sources said. This is one of multiple probes targeting service members involved in trading so-called "war contracts"—contracts tied to the timing and outcomes of military actions. Separately, U.S. authorities are also investigating an employee at KPMG, who is suspected of betting a company would outperform market consensus expectations. (Wall Street Journal)

According to sources, Venezuela is seriously reviewing plans to exit OPEC. Discussions regarding the withdrawal have been held with U.S. officials, though no final decision has been made. Some U.S. officials envision building a "petro superpower" through an alliance between the U.S. and Venezuela, which would significantly weaken OPEC's influence. Another source familiar with the matter said that despite Venezuela's oil production plummeting sharply in recent years, the country is currently not subject to OPEC's output limits. However, exempting Venezuela from any potential future production quotas would help it maximize output in the long run, thereby lowering oil prices, while the U.S. would also be able to advance its plans for Venezuelan oil. (Bloomberg)

Boosted by Jensen Huang’s “AI inflection point” remarks after the previous trading day’s close, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose on Thursday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.57%. According to market data from BIT (bit.com), among top-performing stocks: Micron fell 0.28%, SK Hynix rose 2%, and Tesla gained 2.6%. Semiconductor stocks rallied broadly: Broadcom climbed 4.49%, Arm advanced 1.65%, and Nvidia jumped 8.7%. However, most AI stocks did not follow Nvidia’s rally, posting only limited gains. Among CPO-related stocks, AAOI dropped 0.42% and LITE rose 1.82%. Memory stocks were mixed, with SanDisk down 0.96%. Software giant Salesforce announced a deep partnership with U.S. AI leader Anthropic to launch Agentforce, directly easing market concerns that “AI would destroy software companies.” Boosted by the news, Salesforce’s stock surged 22.58% in a single day, marking its best daily performance since August 2020. The cybersecurity sector also rallied. CrowdStrike’s Q2 revenue and forward guidance both exceeded expectations, driving its stock up 20.50% in a single day, its best daily performance since its 2019 IPO. The crypto market continued its steady upward trend. According to HTX market data, overnight, SOL surged past the $110 mark and is currently trading at $108.12, with a 24-hour gain of 1.82%. HYPE hit a new high, now trading at $84.78. Bitcoin consolidated above the $80,000 level, currently at $80,179. Additionally, influenced by Trump’s negative stance on a ceasefire with Iran, Bitget data shows WTI crude hit an intraday high of $84.24, closing up 1.58% at $83.53. Brent crude rose 2.12% to close at $89.70.

Anthropic is considering allowing existing shareholders to sell a portion of their shares in its upcoming IPO, while exploring setting a lock-up period longer than 180 days. The move aims to meet partial liquidity needs of early investors and employees, while controlling post-IPO stock supply and price volatility. The company plans to publicly file its prospectus after the U.S. Labor Day on September 7, and hold an investor day in mid-September. Prediction markets show the probability of Anthropic completing its IPO before October has risen to 86%. (The Information)

According to a Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no intention of reaccepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached with Iran in June this year. Trump is now shifting to exerting economic pressure on Iran and is willing to wait and see if this strategy works. The June deal was originally structured to lift sanctions and allow Iran access to its overseas frozen funds, in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and launching negotiations on the nuclear issue and ending the war. However, it collapsed weeks later following Iran’s attacks on ships. Iran insists the U.S. must resume implementing the June agreement, arguing that Article 5 of the pact effectively recognizes Iran’s right to set conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has stated Iran will only reopen the strait if the U.S. resumes implementing the agreement, grants Iran oil sales exemptions, and ends its maritime blockade. Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar have recently stepped up mediation efforts, but progress has been limited. Analysts note the June memorandum of understanding has effectively expired, with both sides currently preparing for a potential escalation of tensions.