Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

In a March 24 report, Macquarie Group global strategist Jeffrey said it’s too early to pin high hopes on a Middle East “peace agreement” in the coming days—since the two sides’ demands remain hard to reconcile. It’s unrealistic to think the U.S. will drop its demands on Iran’s nuclear assets or pull out of its Gulf bases. Iran is also unlikely to stop backing its proxy militias at this stage. **That said, the conflict is unlikely to extend past mid-April—by then, the Iranian threat is likely to be neutralized.** Once that threat is gone, the U.S. will hold the upper hand in any follow-up talks. (IG)

March 24th — Per AI Monitoring, address 0xedf…8fc0b currently holds a 40x short position on 650 BTC, valued at $46.09M. The position has an unrealized loss of $246k, with a stop-loss set above $71,300 and gradual take-profit kicking off at $69,500. Entry price: $70,520; Liquidation price: $71,711.

On March 24, Pacifica—a perpetuals trading platform built on the Solana ecosystem—announced a 50% discount on transaction fees for its RWA market this week. Any RWA asset transaction on the platform qualifies for the 50% fee cut. The promotion runs from 9:00 AM Beijing time on March 24 through 9:00 AM Beijing time on March 31. Separately, Pacifica previously launched the “TradFi vs DeFi: Market Wars” trading competition. Participants can select from different asset categories to compete, and the winning side will split a prize pool of 300,000 points. Entries for the competition close at 10:00 PM Beijing time on April 6. (Users can access Pacifica via app.pacifica.fi/?referral=pacbot.)

**Hainan Regulator Alerts to Illegal RWA Trading; PBOC-Led Notice Bans Domestic RWA Tokenization** On March 24, Hainan Province’s local financial supervision bureau released a March 19 risk alert targeting illegal Real World Asset (RWA) transactions. Recently, some entities have promoted themselves under names like “Hainan International Data Asset Exchange,” “Hainan Data Exchange,” and “Hainan Sea Exchange,” claiming to legally offer RWA and Real Data Asset (RDA) services. These unapproved entities are operating as trading venues in violation of regulations, suspected of illegal financial activities that threaten public property security. The “Hainan International Data Asset Exchange” has not been approved in Hainan. Provincial government approval is required to establish a trading venue in the province; entities without authorization may not use terms like “exchange” or “trading center” in their names or conduct trading venue-related business. Separately, the People’s Bank

**March 24 (Xinhua) —** The Strait of Hormuz shipping industry has been hard hit amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, with multiple sources confirming a sharp drop in commercial vessel traffic, according to Xinhua. Market service firms report commercial ship transits through the strait have plummeted by roughly 95% since March, disrupting the global energy transport system. Specifically, only 144 vessels passed through between March 1 and 23—far below the pre-conflict daily average of ~138. Of these, 91 carried oil and gas, most heading east away from the strait to the Asian market. Meanwhile, some LNG tankers originally bound for Europe have rerouted to Asia (where spot prices are higher), reflecting a shifting supply-demand dynamic. Route shifts have also emerged: Current transiting ships cluster on a northern corridor north of Iran’s Larak Island—designated a “safe passage” by Iran, monitored visually, and cleared by relevant forces. UK shipping outlets confirm over 20 vessels

On March 24, per OnchainLens monitoring, an address affiliated with Forward Industries (a SOL Treasury-linked entity) withdrew 4,648 ETH from Kraken, valued at $9.95 million.