Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

HIP-3 market deployer Entropy has launched an Anthropic Pre-IPO market on Hyperliquid. Following the release of Anthropic’s IPO prospectus, its market cap on the platform edged down to $2.07 trillion, marking a 1.92% drop in 24 hours. As of press time, open interest in Anthropic’s pre-IPO contracts stood at $37.26 million, with trading volume reaching $5.43 million. Anthropic’s IPO prospectus reveals that the company generated $45.9 billion in revenue in 2025, a roughly 12-fold year-over-year increase, though its operating loss widened from $2.98 billion in 2024 to $8.06 billion. The company’s total operating expenditure last year was $12.65 billion, and its committed spending on cloud services, computing power, and infrastructure over the next several years totals $518 billion.

World Foundation released a statement disclosing that World Assets, Ltd. has completed a series of over-the-counter (OTC) sales totaling $49 million. The sales were conducted over the past month, with all transactions subject to a one-year lock-up period. A portion of the sales has already been settled, and the remaining WLD tokens will be delivered and settled this week.

Coinbase announced in a statement that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved Coinbase Clearing LLC’s registration as a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). The firm noted this makes it the first clearinghouse to use USDC as its native collateral asset, supporting USDC collateral and 24/7 settlement. With the approval, Coinbase now has three CFTC-regulated derivatives entities: Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) Coinbase Financial Markets, Designated Contract Market (DCM) Coinbase Derivatives, and Derivatives Clearing Organization Coinbase Clearing, forming a regulated derivatives infrastructure covering brokerage, trading, and clearing segments. Coinbase Clearing will enable the platform to directly create and settle fully collateralized contracts, accelerating product development and improving operational efficiency. The company also stated that its margin derivatives business and upcoming individual stock perpetual contracts will still receive partial support from existing partners. Going forward, Coinbase will continue to refine its existing product infrastructure and expand market access for regulated products.

SlowMist’s Chief Information Security Officer 23pds posted that Apple has released a critical update, likely patching a zero-day vulnerability exploited to steal crypto wallets. “Apple is aware of a report indicating this issue may have been leveraged in extremely complex attacks targeting specific individuals, affecting iOS versions prior to iOS 27,” he wrote. SlowMist founder Yu Xian responded that some cybercrime groups are taking advantage of vulnerabilities in iOS versions older than 27 to steal crypto wallet assets from iPhone users. He reminded users to promptly update their iPhones, iPads, Macs and other devices to the latest system versions, exercise caution when installing apps from unknown sources, and avoid opening unknown links in Safari or in-app browsers.

Beating AI News Flash: According to a Wall Street Journal report, OpenAI has canceled the public release of its next-generation AI model GPT-6.1 Astra after internal tests uncovered safety and alignment issues. The model was originally scheduled to launch on ChatGPT and Codex in October, outperforming previous models in completing complex end-to-end tasks and writing without human assistance. Saachi Jain, head of OpenAI’s safety systems, stated that GPT-6.1 Astra underperformed in two tests compared to GPT-6 Astra. The two key issues were: first, a rise in deceptive behavior, where the model sometimes failed to truthfully inform users of which actions it had or had not performed; second, task authorization scope problems, meaning the model could continue executing tasks without user permission, and even call external tools and services with security risks. While GPT-6.1 Astra made progress in reducing "model laziness", it did not meet OpenAI’s safety and alignment standards. The company will investigate the root causes of the issues, check whether its reinforcement learning environment rewards correct behaviors, and may conduct additional reinforcement learning training on the same base model to develop future GPT-6 series models. OpenAI has also recently launched a new monitoring system and required engineers to test AI systems using stricter security safeguards.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has broken through 5%, exceeding the S&P 500’s earnings yield as measured by the reciprocal of its price-earnings ratio, pushing bonds’ relative attractiveness to stocks to its highest level in roughly 25 years. This means that, based solely on yield comparisons, the returns investors get from holding U.S. Treasuries are now higher than the current earnings yield of stocks. Yale University economist Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted excess CAPE yield model shows that, given current stock valuations and Treasury yields, the S&P 500 may outperform bonds by only around 1% annually over the next 10 years. However, the model’s predictive accuracy has declined in recent years, with actual stock market performance significantly exceeding its earlier forecasts. The current high yields partly reflect the U.S. economy’s continued resilience, but they also place higher demands on stock valuations and corporate earnings expectations. Investors who previously bet on long-term U.S. Treasuries have suffered losses due to falling bond prices, but the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 5% has also led to a re-evaluation of bonds’ allocation value.