Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV broke down Bitcoin’s post-rally analysis using the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) indicator on January 30. Since the start of 2024, Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs—surging past $100k from around $40k—but the aSOPR tells a starkly different story: it’s formed a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This divergence reveals key investor behavior: each time Bitcoin hits a new price peak, holders are realizing profits earlier and earlier, signaling fading conviction in each rally. MorenoDV noted the market is now at a critical turning point: “The aSOPR has consistently followed a descending channel—touches of the upper boundary line up with local price tops, while hits on the lower boundary match local bottoms.” Right now, Bitcoin is testing the channel’s lower boundary in extreme fear territory, with roughly 1/3 of its total supply in unrealized losses. Historically, this setup (aSOPR below 1.0 + significant unrealized losses) has

Breaking: January 30th — Trump is set to nominate Kevin Wash as Federal Reserve Chair. Traders still price in two Fed rate cuts this year, while U.S. financial firms have shared their monetary policy outlooks: BlueBay Asset Management CIO Mark Dowding noted the market broadly expects Wash to lean dovish, arguing AI-driven productivity gains will keep inflation in check. Futures markets thus continue to forecast two Fed rate cuts this year — aligning with expectations over the past few months. Compared to other potential candidates, Wash is seen as less dovish. He’s widely respected by fellow Fed members, and his appointment would not threaten the central bank’s independence. eToro analyst Lale Akoner pointed out Wash’s impact on the Fed’s balance sheet may outweigh his influence on interest rates. If confirmed, the Fed could speed up balance sheet reduction once conditions permit. This expectation ties to the steepening yield curve and short-term dollar strength — not a signal of

On January 30, Nubank — Latin America’s largest digital bank — announced it has received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a branch in the United States. If final approval is granted, the bank plans to offer deposit accounts, credit cards, loans, and digital asset custody services in the U.S. Subsequent steps include meeting OCC requirements, securing approval from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve, completing capital requirements within 12 months, and launching operations within 18 months as required. (CoinDesk)

On January 30, 2025, Kevin Warsh—nominated by former President Trump to be the next Federal Reserve Chair—said in an interview that Bitcoin is a highly disruptive new technology, a critical asset, and even a "physical exam report" for policymakers. "Its price will reveal whether we’re right or wrong—so it’s more like a monetary policy inspector," he noted. Warsh added: "I’ve seen true innovators in the crypto space, and I want to tell those suit-wearing bankers: Bitcoin is just a string of code—it’s now the coolest software, and it will let us do things that were never possible before. The key is we must ensure cryptographic technology thrives in the U.S. and innovative talent comes here. This is an opportunity for America, and the next decade will unlock extraordinary value." For more, follow the WeChat Video Account "Rhythm Station."

January 30: Per Onchain Lens monitoring, a BlackRock ETF address deposited 2,288 BTC (valued at $188.99 million) and 19,644 ETH (valued at $53.72 million) into Coinbase.

Per a Hong Kong government news release, Christopher Hui—Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury—stated at a Legislative Council (LegCo) policy briefing on January 30 that the Treasury, in collaboration with the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), is finalizing details of a regulatory framework for virtual asset trading and custody services. The goal is to submit a bill to LegCo this year regulating four types of service providers, including those offering virtual asset advice and virtual asset portfolio management. Additionally, Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Bill took effect in August 2025, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is currently processing related license applications. To build an international gold trading market, Hong Kong has set a target to expand its gold storage to over 2,000 tons within three years, positioning itself as a regional gold reserve hub. A wholly government-owned entity—the Hong Kong Bullion Central Clearing System Governi