Point of View: The Federal Reserve Has Over-Eased, with a 65% Chance of Stagflation in the United States

On February 4, OnchainLens data reveals Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold 1,441 ETH over the past two days, totaling $3.297 million. Prior analysis shows Buterin transferred 16,384 ETH from a personal address to a multi-sig address five days ago and began selling the tokens yesterday. This aligns with his "multi-year donation plan" announced 30 days ago, which aims to support the development of an open-source, secure, verifiable full-stack software and hardware system.

Feb. 4 — Crypto reporter Eleanor Terrett reported Tuesday that two sources with knowledge of the situation have said Senate Democrats plan a closed-door meeting Wednesday to discuss the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Regulation Act"—also known as the CLARITY Act. This marks the first gathering of Democratic senators since the Senate Banking Committee delayed consideration of the legislation last month.

**Axie Infinity Unveils Imminent Launch of Non-Transferable bAXS Token** On February 4, Axie Infinity officially announced the upcoming rollout of bAXS—a non-transferable token pegged 1:1 to AXS—designed to curb inflationary rewards for genuine players. The platform will host two rounds of bAXS airdrops, tied to Axie scores and staked AXS amounts. For the first airdrop, users must stake at least 10 AXS by 00:01 UTC on February 5 to qualify, with a 100,000 bAXS prize pool. **AXS Price Jumps Per HTX Market Data** Per HTX market metrics, AXS has seen a sharp rally recently: it’s surged from roughly $1 at the start of the year to $1.62, hitting a peak of $2.99.

**Crypto Market V-Shaped Swing; U.S. Stocks Close Lower (Feb 4)** HTX market data shows the crypto market notched another V-shaped swing this morning: - Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to a low of $72,945 before rebounding, last trading at $75,953 (-3.37% 24h). - Ethereum (ETH) fell to $2,110, rebounded to $2,340, and last traded at $2,241 (-4.3% 24h). - SOL dipped below $100, last changing hands at $97.8; BNB was last at $759. - Total crypto market cap stood at $2.648 trillion (-3.3% 24h). **Top Altcoin Decliners (24h):** - ZAMA: $0.028 (-22.2%) - EUL: $1.176 (-15.2%) - SOLV: $0.0076 (-14.4%) - HUMA: $0.02134 (-14.1%) - FOGO: $0.028 (-13.7%) - BANK: $0.0359 (-13.3%) - ZK: $0.023 (-11.4%) Bitget data confirms U.S. stocks closed mixed lower: - Dow Jones: -0.3% - S&P 500: -0.8% - Nasdaq Composite: -1.4% - Key movers: Nvidia (NVDA) -2.8%, PayPal (PYPL) -20.3%, Microsoft (MSFT) -~3%. **Crypto-Related Stocks (24h Close):** - BitGo Holdings (BTGO): -5.86%

On February 4, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a government funding bill in the White House Oval Office, ending the partial federal government shutdown. Earlier that day, the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation to fund several federal agencies through the end of the current fiscal year (September 30), breaking the deadlock that triggered the partial shutdown on January 31. The bill provides full-year funding for those agencies but only two weeks of funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—which has faced recent controversy and protests over its immigration enforcement actions—to allow further negotiations on improving the department’s operations. (Kryptonite)

February 4 – A White House official told Barron’s that Federal Reserve Governor Randal has resigned as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). Randal, who joined the Fed in September 2023, has been on leave from his Fed role since assuming the CEA post. He will continue serving as a Fed governor until a successor is confirmed. Randal declined to comment on the development.