「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent: Ceasefire Makes Us More Bearish, Unprecedented Two-Week Truce in History Has Never Resolved Such a Conflict
April 12th: Garrett Jin, representative of "BTC OG Insider Whale," posted (on social media) that a ceasefire is sugar-coated poison. Why are we more bearish than optimistic about a ceasefire? The market is trading on the logic that a brief ceasefire will lead to lasting peace—but we believe the odds of that are less than 10%.
Reasons: Iran’s demands are incompatible with U.S. requirements, no ceasefire terms have been implemented within 24 hours, and there’s no historical precedent for a conflict of this scale being resolved with just a two-week pause. The actual odds could be even lower.
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The Whale's "Set 10 Major Goals First" Short Position is Already Profiting $3.21 Million, with an BTC Opening Price of $71,554.61
On April 12, on-chain analyst Ai Auntie (@ai_9684xtpa) reported that contract whale “First Set 10 Big Targets” (@Jason60704294) has secured a $3.21 million floating profit from short positions.
Breakdown of positions:
- **BTC Short**: 2,567.49 coins, entry price $71,554.61 → $1.185M floating profit
- **ETH Short**: 38,465.22 coins, entry price $2,248.74 → $2.028M floating profit
This aligns with U.S. media’s concise, data-focused style for crypto updates, using “secured” for profit clarity and “M” (million) for quick readability.
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Iranian Negotiation Delegation Leaves Pakistan
**April 12 (Xinhua) —** The Pakistani government reported Wednesday evening that Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf led an Iranian negotiating delegation out of Pakistan by air.
Earlier, no members of the U.S. delegation remained in Pakistan. U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy Whitkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and the U.S. technical team had all departed Islamabad, the Pakistani capital. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence arrived at Ramstein Air Base in Germany before 7 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.
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Tether-Linked Super PAC's First $300,000 Expenditure Suspected of Insider Dealing Raises Concerns
On April 12, CoinDesk reported that filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) by Fellowship — a U.S. super PAC tied to Tether — show its initial $300,000 in spending went to Nxum Group. The firm was co-founded by Tether’s U.S. CEO, former Trump administration crypto advisor Bo Hines, his father, and a third partner; the funds were used to buy campaign ads for Georgia Republican congressional candidate Clay Fuller.
On April 1 this year, Fellowship named Tether’s U.S. Head of Regulatory Affairs Jesse Spiro as its chairman. FEC filings show the committee — which announced last year it had secured $100 million in funding commitments — now has a zero account balance. Tether’s international arm said it has no affiliation with Fellowship; Tether’s U.S. arm declined to comment.
Michael Beckel of political reform group Issue One noted that under U.S. campaign finance rules, it is not illegal for a super PAC to pay a founder-linked firm — so long as services are genuine an
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Trump Reiterates Iran's Non-Nuclearization as a Red Line
On April 12, Trump reiterated that Iran pursuing nuclear weapons is a red line.
“I got comprehensive briefings from Vice President Pence, Special Envoy Brian Hook, and Kushner on the Islamabad meeting. The Iran meeting started early in the morning and ran nearly 20 hours—till late at night. I could break down the meeting and our many wins, but only one thing counts: Iran won’t give up its nuclear ambitions!
“In lots of ways, the consensus we reached is better than dragging out military action forever, but all of that means nothing compared to nuclear power getting into the hands of such fickle, slippery people. The rest doesn’t matter because they won’t budge on the biggest issue. Like I’ve said from day one—even years ago—Iran will never have nuclear weapons!”
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Bitcoin Dips Below $71,000, 24-hour Loss of 2.65%
On April 12, Bitcoin dropped below $71,000, per HTX market data, notching a 24-hour decline of 2.65%.
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