The probability of a government shutdown in the US surged to 85% this week.
On November 10th, according to the data on the Polymarket website, the probability that the "US Government Shutdown will end from November 8th to 11th" is currently 40%. The probability that it will end from November 12th to 15th is 45%; the probability that it will end after November 16th is 17%.
Before this news, Trump called for an end to the shutdown and announced the "Big Coin" policy of paying $2000 to each individual.
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Two addresses accumulating 187,500 LINK, approximately $2.9 million
On November 10th, based on TheDataNerd's monitoring, in the past 3 days, two wallet addresses, namely 0x630 and 0x3DA, collectively withdrew 187,500 LINK from the exchange. The total amount withdrawn is approximately $2.9 million, with an average purchase price of around $15.5.
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Hassett: If Government Shutdown Persists, Q4 GDP Could Be Negative
On November 10th, the Director of the National Economic Council of the White House, Hassett, stated that if the U.S. government shutdown persists, the GDP in the fourth quarter may turn negative.
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Yi Lihua: This round, ETH is expected to reach $7,000, and multiple positive factors will initiate a new bull market
On November 9th, the founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), Li Hua, once again advocated for Ethereum. "This round of ETH is expected to reach $7000. Nothing is more crucial than the midterm elections, and nothing is more beneficial to the midterm elections than the disbursement of funds. Looking back at the 2020 pandemic bull market, the core driving force of the market was also the widespread distribution of money. The recent investment research data all show positive expectations. Coupled with the fact that market short positions have already accumulated. Everything is in place to start a new bull market. Just be patient and try to avoid trading on leverage as the spot price fluctuations are already significant. It has only been a few months since the ETH market started in April. Buffett once said that no one is willing to get rich slowly because humans have a genetic instinct for impatience and need to make efforts to overcome these human weaknesses."
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Opinion: Trump's "Big Money Splash" Will Forge an Inflation Boomerang, Stimulus Payments Often Come With a Hefty Involuntary Tax
On November 9th, KobeissiLetter presented a detailed market analysis concerning the "Trump $2000 Per Capita Tariff Bonus." It was stated that President Trump has just announced the "Tariff Bonus," with each American being eligible to receive at least $2000. It is anticipated that more than 85% of American adults will receive this payment, and the total distribution will exceed $400 billion. Meanwhile, the U.S. debt is approaching $40 trillion, and the economic impact of this large-scale "stimulus" payment is substantial.
Firstly, who will be entitled to this payment? The most recent stimulus payment was the $1400 stimulus check in March 2021. The full amount is only provided to individuals with an annual income not exceeding $75,000, households with an annual income not exceeding $112,500, and married individuals with an annual income not exceeding $150,000. The same criteria will be in effect in 2025: currently, approximately 220 million American adults meet these income criteria.
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Opinion: If Trump's $2000 Tariff Dividend is successfully distributed, it will unleash a powerful liquidity boost into the market
On November 9th, in the financial newsletter "The Pomp Letter", author Pomp (Anthony Pompliano) stated his views on "Trump today said he will pay at least $2,000 tariff dividend to every American": "If Trump is truly going to distribute $2,000 to citizens from tariffs, then history might view the panic rhetoric of April 2025 as one of the most foolish mainstream consensuses that our generation has ever encountered. A $2,000 per capita tariff dividend will also inject powerful liquidity into the market."
Earlier today, Trump tweeted: "Anyone who is opposed to tariffs is a fool! We are now the wealthiest and most respected country in the world. The inflation rate is close to zero, and the stock market has hit historical highs. 401k retirement account balances have also reached an all-time high. We generate trillions of dollars in revenue every year and will soon be able to start repaying our huge $37 trillion debt. U.S. investment is at a historical high, and factories and businesses ar
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